Fantasy Football: Buy or Sell Week 13
Longtime listeners of the Fantasy Footballers will surely recognize the segment “Buy or Sell”, as this recurring segment appears regularly both in-season and offseason. But, if you are unfamiliar with this segment, Andy, Mike and Jason regularly discuss whether they agree or disagree that a given player will meet or exceed some given statistical threshold. For example, the Footballers might discuss whether they think D’Andre Swift will finish as a top-12 running back in 2021, and the Ballers who agree with this statement will “buy” it, whereas disbelievers will “sell”. These discussions are akin to “prop” bets, and they are a lot of fun.
Throughout the season I will recap Andy, Mike, and Jason’s “Buy or Sell” discussions on the Podcast and add my two cents to each line. And as an added bonus I will discuss three extra thresholds. Generally, these props will come from fantasy website projections, so they aren’t meant to be easy!
These predictions are meant to drive engagement! So, let me know if you hate or appreciate my predictions either in the comments here or on Twitter: @NateHenryFF.
Buy or Sell Scoreboard
There is no value in predictions without accountability! So, as promised, I will keep score for myself and Andy, Mike, and Jason (whether they like it or not!) Here are Week 12’s results:
|Devonta Freeman||Top 24 RB||Sell|
|Dallas Goedert||55 Receiving Yards||Sell|
|Mac Jones||2 Passing Touchdowns||Buy|
|Cam Newton||235 Passing Yards||–||–||–||Sell|
|James Robinson||61 Rushing Yards||–||–||–||Buy|
|Antonio Gibson||52 rushing yards||–||–||–||Buy|
|2021 Results||50% (16/32)||54% (19/35)||57% (20/35)||61% (44/72)|
Oh Baby, what a great week for me! I won all 6 of my fantasy matchups, I went 5/6 out in Buy/Sell, and Michigan beat Ohio State!!!! I am on top of the world! Of course, I probably used up all my luck for the next decade in one weekend, but it was glorious.
The Podcast hosts, on the other hand, did not fare so well, going a combined 1-for-9 in Buy/Sell picks. They all thought Devonta Freeman would continue his success, but he was unable to find the end zone like in previous weeks, despite receiving 16 carries. Also, Dallas Goedert was surprisingly shut down, and Mac Jones threw for exactly two touchdowns.
In my Bonus Buy or Sell, I clearly found some great lines. Cam Newton was benched after throwing only 92 yards, James Robinson rumbled his way to 86 rushing yards, and Antonio Gibson toted the ball 29 times to accumulate 111 yards. You love to see it.
As much as I would like to emulate George Costanza and leave on a high note after last week’s success, I am contractually obligated to continue this weekly article. No time to get complacent, and perfection is still something to strive for. On to Week 13!
Week 13 Podcast Buy or Sell Lines
Let’s dive into Buy or Sell from Wednesday’s episode: “Week 13 Dilemmas + Buy or Sell, Fantasy Q&A”.
Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL) @ PIT – Top 5 QB
Lamar Jackson has not performed as a top 5 QB on the road this year, and T.J. Watt may not play due to COVID complications. As a result, Jason and Andy both sold believing this trend will continue. Meanwhile, Mike bought for silly reasons involving his personal fantasy team.
I am going to sell this line. The odds are stacked against any QB finishing inside the top 5, so I will play the odds here.
David Montgomery (RB, CHI) vs. ARI – Top 15 RB
Andy noted that David Montgomery has not been a Top-15 RB since returning from injury, so Andy, Mike, and Jason all sold. Jason additionally added that the Cardinals have been a tough matchup for running backs in 2021.
I feel like it’s unfair to ask me this line without knowing whether Andy Dalton or Justin Fields will be starting. I think Dalton will start because Fields isn’t healthy enough yet (and because Matt Nagy magic tricks). I also think that Montgomery scores a touchdown, resulting in a Top 15 finish.
Hunter Renfrow (WR, OAK) vs. WAS – Top 20 WR
Mike bought it because Renfrow likely sees 10 targets. Jason noted that the Washington Football Team defense has been playing much better lately, but they have played some lower-level competition (SEA, CAR, DEN). Despite the recent competition, Jason believes that Washington is a good defense now, and sold. Andy bought top-20 but noted that he would not have bought top-15.
I will buy it because Darren Waller is doubtful to play this week. I am guessing that those underneath targets typically intended for Waller go to Renfrow rather than replacement-level tight end, Foster Moreau.
Nate Henry’s Bonus Buy or Sell
Taysom Hill (QB, NO) vs. DAL – 26 rushing yards
We now know that Taysom Hill will be starting for New Orleans, and his best asset is his rushing ability. 26 yards seems like a number he might surpass in the first quarter, let alone the whole game. I will easily buy this line.
Adam Thielen (WR, MIN) @ DET – 1 Touchdown
You know I love to pick against the Lions!
Without Dalvin Cook, the odds of a passing touchdown increase slightly for all Vikings receivers, but Thielen is just so good in the red zone, so I think he’s the most likely candidate to catch a touchdown pass from Kirk Cousins. The Lions won’t be able to stop him if he gets a target or two near the end zone, so I will buy a touchdown for Thielen.
Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF) vs. NE – 85 receiving yards
The Patriots defense is playing outstanding right now, and a major reason why New England has won six straight. We also know that Bill Belichick will try to take away an opponent’s best offensive weapon, which for Buffalo is easily Stefon Diggs. Diggs probably sees a heavy dose of J.C. Jackson, who is likely on his way to the Pro Bowl, in addition to the defensive schemes acting to limit his output. All told, I think 85 yards will be tough for Diggs to exceed, so I will sell.