Fantasy Football: Buy or Sell Week 12
Longtime listeners of the Fantasy Footballers will surely recognize the segment “Buy or Sell”, as this recurring segment appears regularly both in-season and offseason. But, if you are unfamiliar with this segment, Andy, Mike and Jason regularly discuss whether they agree or disagree that a given player will meet or exceed some given statistical threshold. For example, the Footballers might discuss whether they think D’Andre Swift will finish as a top-12 running back in 2021, and the Ballers who agree with this statement will “buy” it, whereas disbelievers will “sell”. These discussions are akin to “prop” bets, and they are a lot of fun.
Throughout the season I will recap Andy, Mike, and Jason’s “Buy or Sell” discussions on the Podcast and add my two cents to each line. And as an added bonus I will discuss three extra thresholds. Generally, these props will come from fantasy website projections, so they aren’t meant to be easy!
These predictions are meant to drive engagement! So, let me know if you hate or appreciate my predictions either in the comments here or on Twitter: @NateHenryFF.
Buy or Sell Scoreboard
There is no value in predictions without accountability! So, as promised, I will keep score for myself and Andy, Mike, and Jason (whether they like it or not!) Here are Week 11’s results:
|David Montgomery||Top 15 RB||Sell|
|Tee Higgins||Top 24 WR||Sell||Sell|
|Justin Herbert||Top 10 QB||Buy||Buy|
|Byron Pringle||20 Receiving Yards||–||–||–||Buy|
|Kyle Pitts||70 Receiving Yards||–||–||–||Sell|
|Josh Jacobs||51 Rushing Yards||–||–||–|
|2021 Results||55% (16/29)||59% (19/32)||59% (19/32)||59% (39/66)|
Tough week for the podcast hosts, who each batted a mere .333. I fared better, correctly guessing four out of six. David Montgomery was not a top 15 back considering that the Bears were playing from behind for most of the game; Tee Higgins did not come anywhere near the top 24, as the Bengals barely threw the ball; and Justin Herbert had a fantastic week, easily finding his way into the Top 10 at QB. Herbert even added 90 yards rushing, which is a nice boon for his fantasy floor.
Byron Pringle only needed one catch to exceed 20 yards, scoring me an easy win, and Kyle Pitts was predictably shut down by the Patriots. Josh Jacobs only got nine carries and wasn’t particularly efficient, as came up 14 yards short of 51 yards.
I am happy to hit 67% for the week, but we can always do better! Let’s Mega-la-Dominate Week 12!
Week 12 Podcast Buy or Sell Lines
Let’s dive into Buy or Sell from Wednesday’s episode: “The MEGALADON!!!”.
Devonta Freeman (RB, BAL) vs. CLE – Top 24 RB
Jason bought this line believing that Freeman would find the end zone, Andy also bought believing that Freeman’s passing work would be enough, and Mike bought as well believing Freeman can easily provide solid RB2 numbers.
I am less optimistic than the Footballers gang. I think Freeman has delivered primarily because he was the only man left standing. Latavius Murray returned last week, and maybe didn’t look great, but I think he’s the preferred back in Baltimore, thereby holding down Devonta Freeman. Another week of recovery for Murray might be enough to steal that TD away from Freeman.
Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI) @ NYG – 55 receiving yards
Andy, Mike, and Jason all bought because the predictable metrics (routes, snaps, targets, etc.) suggest that Goedert will obtain 55 yards. Despite the continuity on the show, I am going to again break the uniformity. Goedert’s peripheral numbers may look nice, but those peripheral numbers all exist on an offense that barely throws the ball (only 19.5 passes per game in the last four weeks). Philly would rather run the ball, so I will bet against a decent receiving day for the Philly Tight End.
Mac Jones (QB, NE) vs. TEN – 2 passing touchdowns
All three podcast hosts sold because the Patriots are likely to hand the ball off far more than they pass against a depleted Tennessee defense. This time I will agree with the guys because I don’t think Tennessee can keep up in this game, rendering the Patriots offense run-heavy due to game script.
Nate Henry’s Bonus Buy or Sell
Cam Newton (QB, NE) @ MIA – 235 passing yards
Cam Newton is not the passer he once was, and Cam was never a great passer. Last week, in his first start of 2021, he threw for only 189 yards in a loss. I realize that he is still learning the offense, but I don’t think Cam has enough in his arm to get to 235 against the Dolphins, even if the Dolphins are a decent matchup for fantasy quarterbacks. I will sell.
James Robinson (RB, JAX) vs. ATL- 61 rushing yards
James Robinson had a tough week last week against the 49ers, but the 49ers are a much better defense and team than the Atlanta Falcons. Rotoviz lists Atlanta as the 13th best matchup for fantasy running backs, which is favorable enough. Robinson, now healthy, has no competition for touches, so 61 yards seems well within the realm of possibilities. I will buy.
Antonio Gibson (RB, WAS) vs. SEA – 52 rushing yards
Like Robinson, Gibson has a great matchup against Seattle. Seattle is listed as the 3rd best matchup for running backs, so Seattle may give Gibson little resistance. Unlike Robinson, Antonio Gibson has some competition for touches with J.D. McKissic and Jaret Patterson each playing a role in the Washington offense. However, Patterson’s touches last week were purely “fumble punishment” after Gibson fumbled. I think Gibson resumes his primary duties as a rusher, and easily eclipses 52 rushing yards.