Fantasy Football: Buy or Sell Week 11
Longtime listeners of the Fantasy Footballers will surely recognize the segment “Buy or Sell”, as this recurring segment appears regularly both in-season and offseason. But, if you are unfamiliar with this segment, Andy, Mike and Jason regularly discuss whether they agree or disagree that a given player will meet or exceed some given statistical threshold. For example, the Footballers might discuss whether they think D’Andre Swift will finish as a top-12 running back in 2021, and the Ballers who agree with this statement will “buy” it, whereas disbelievers will “sell”. These discussions are akin to “prop” bets, and they are a lot of fun.
Throughout the season I will recap Andy, Mike, and Jason’s “Buy or Sell” discussions on the Podcast and add my two cents to each line. And as an added bonus I will discuss three extra thresholds. Generally, these props will come from fantasy website projections, so they aren’t meant to be easy!
These predictions are meant to drive engagement! So, let me know if you hate or appreciate my predictions either in the comments here or on Twitter: @NateHenryFF.
Buy or Sell Scoreboard
There is no value in predictions without accountability! So, as promised, I will keep score for myself and Andy, Mike, and Jason (whether they like it or not!) Here are Week 10’s results:
|D’Andre Swift||Top 12 RB||Sell||Sell||Sell|
|Mike Williams||4 Catches||Buy||Buy||Buy||Buy|
|Jalen Hurts||Top 12 QB||Buy||Buy||Buy||Buy|
|Matt Ryan||294 Passing Yards||Sell|
|Najee Harris||71 Rushing Yards||Buy|
|Dawson Knox||35 Receiving Yards|
|2021 Overall||58% (15/26)||62% (18/29)||62% (18/29)||58% (35/60)|
The Fantasy Footballers all picked identically on last week’s show, and apparently for good reason because they each went 3/3. I tried to be contrarian when buying Swift as a Top 12 RB. I just missed as he finished the week as RB15. Swift didn’t score a touchdown despite being given 33 carries and six targets. Swift touched the ball 36 times and didn’t finish the week as a top-12 RB. That shows you the importance of scoring touchdowns in fantasy football.
In my Bonus Buy or Sell, I finally did alright. Matt Ryan underwhelmed throwing for less than 150 yards, Najee Harris had no trouble surpassing a hundred yards rushing on the pathetic Lions, but Dawson Knox only reeled in on pass for 17 yards in his return to action. The Jets’ blindside hit him on a would-be touchdown pass, leading to an injury but no additional yards. Still, even if he had caught that pass, I don’t think he would have reached 35. The Bills finally figured something out with Stefon Diggs, rendering Knox unnecessary.
Week 11 Podcast Buy or Sell Lines
Let’s dive into Buy or Sell from Wednesday’s episode: “Playoff Primer + Strength of Schedule League Winners”.
David Montgomery (RB, CHI) vs. BAL – Top 15 RB
All three podcast hosts bought despite the Ravens being a tough run defense. Mike specifically mentioned that Montgomery looked great last week.
In his return to action, Montgomery received 13 of a possible 17 rushing opportunities to a running back (Khalil Herbert saw four). However, the Bears offense still looks shaky to me. I think Baltimore holds them down better than the Steelers did in Week 9 on Monday Night. Monty will need a touchdown to reach the top-15 (as we learned from Swift above) and I am going to bet against a touchdown. I will sell in contrast to Andy, Mike, and Jason’s continued uniformity.
Tee Higgins (WR, CIN) @ LV – Top 24 WR
Mike noted that, on the season, the Raiders are a tough matchup against wide receivers (6th best). As a result, Mike and Jason sold, but Andy finally broke the agreement and bought.
Despite the Raiders supposedly being a tough matchup, I didn’t like what I saw against Kansas City. I think Higgins gets his usual target share and creeps into the top-24. I don’t think a touchdown is necessary to do it, just his usual target share against a team that seems to have lost their mojo.
Justin Herbert (QB, LAC) vs. PIT – Top 10 QB
Andy said this one was an easy buy because Minkah Fitzpatrick is likely to miss the game. Jason and Mike had similar logic worrying about T.J. Watts’ health but nonetheless sold because Herbert hasn’t been as strong lately. Mike specifically brought up the name Cam Newton as someone who could jump ahead of Herbert, even mentioning he’d play Newton over Herbert!
I am going to agree with Andy and buy. The Steelers might be without Ben and some of those big names in the defense. Without those players, the Steelers are apparently just as bad as the Lions, which bodes well for Herbert.
Nate Henry’s Bonus Buy or Sell
Byron Pringle (WR, KC) vs. DAL – 20 receiving yards
Byron Pringle isn’t a big name around the fantasy community, but peripheral numbers from Week 10 suggest that he is the new WR2 on the Chiefs. The Chiefs have been foisting Mecole Hardman into that position despite him failing the eye test under every conceivable definition. In Week 11, Pringle played 62% of the snaps compared with only 32% for Hardman. The result for Pringle was 5 targets, 46 yards, and a touchdown. So long as Pringle plays 60% of the snaps again, 20 yards receiving should be easy to obtain. I will buy this one.
Kyle Pitts (TE, ATL) vs. NW – 70 receiving yards
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Bill Belichick takes away the opposing team’s best player. For Atlanta, that’s undoubtedly Kyle Pitts, especially if Cordarrelle Patterson sits with the ankle injury. I wouldn’t be surprised to see J.C. Jackson lined up against Pitts, or worse, Pitts double-teamed. The Patriots should have no trouble minimizing Pitts impact, so I will sell 70 receiving yards
Josh Jacobs (RB, OAK) vs. CIN – 51 rushing yards
According to Rotoviz, Oakland has the best matchup for running backs in Week 11. That’s great news for Josh Jacobs. I don’t think that the Bengals run the Raiders out of the building as Kansas City did to the Raiders last week. In a closer game, Jacobs gets 15 carries, not the 7 he saw in Week 10 due to game script. 51 rushing yards is low for an NFL team’s primary runner. So this one is a buy.