With training camps opening up, and your favorite players holding out or getting hurt, it’s finally starting to feel like football season is close. On Saturday’s show, the Fantasy Footballers broke down the AFC South in their second-to-last divisional breakdown. I’ll be recapping Andy, Mike, and Jason‘s take on each of the four teams along with the team’s starters and Average Draft Positions.

With seven of the eight divisions finished, there is plenty of reading to catch up on.

LET’S GET DIVISIONAL!

Houston Texans (2018 Record: 11-5)

2018 Offensive Stats

Total Plays Rush Attempts Rush Yards/Game Pass Attempts Pass Yards/Game
1040 (7th) 472 (4th) 126.3 (8th) 506 (27th) 236.3 (17th)

Projected Week 1 Starters (ADP)

QB: Deshaun Watson (QB4, 5.10)
RB: Lamar Miller (RB29, 6.03), D’Onta Foreman (RB43, 9.06)
WR: DeAndre Hopkins (WR1, 1.06), Will Fuller (WR33, 7.09), Keke Coutee (WR42, 9.08)
TE: Jordan Thomas (NA)

Additions:

N/A

Subtractions:

RB Alfred Blue
WR Demaryius Thomas

Offseason Summary:

The Texans had no trouble running the football last year but the excitement for 2019 lies in the passing game. With his already proficient running numbers, if all three of these WRs can stay healthy, the Footballers could see Deshaun Watson finishing as the overall #1 fantasy QB. One concern is that Watson took the most sacks in the league last year, but the Texans did draft two OL to help with that issue. You can’t be excited about Watson without mentioning his uber-talented, oft-injured, WR corps. DeAndre Hopkins doesn’t require much discussion, he is a top-3 WR and will be a top-3 WR. If the other two guys stay healthy, Hopkins may lose a bit of target share, but not enough to be concerned. Will Fuller is incredible when he plays with Watson, but due to injury, it just doesn’t happen enough. Keke Coutee is being drafted based on his pace, not his performance, driving his ADP above WRs that may represent a better value. There are very few starting RBs in the league that makes you feel so “Bleh” when you draft them like Lamar Miller. Despite the negative feeling, since he joined the Texans, he’s averaged the 5th most touches and the 5th most yards in the league. Unfortunately, Deshaun Watson’s success inside the red zone has limited Miller’s appeal. The return of D’Onta Foreman may limit Miller further, as he has the potential to take this job altogether.

Indianapolis Colts (2018 Record: 10-6)

2018 Offensive Stats

Total Plays Rush Attempts Rush Yards/Game Pass Attempts Pass Yards/Game
1070 (3rd) 408 (17th) 107.4 (18th) 644 (2nd) 278.8 (6th)

Projected Week 1 Starters (ADP)

QB: Andrew Luck (QB2, 5.02)
RB: Marlon Mack (RB15, 3.03), Nyheim Hines (RB57, 13.08)
WR: TY Hilton (WR10, 3.01), Devin Funchess (WR53, 12.01), Parris Campbell (WR55, 12.10)
TE: Eric Ebron (TE7, 7.01), Jack Doyle (TE15, 13.02)

Additions:

WR Devin Funchess (Free Agent)
WR Parris Campbell (Rookie)

Subtractions:

N/A

Offseason Summary:

The Colts are one of the best passing offenses in the league and also have a bunch of vacated targets up for grabs, 23% available from last year. They added Devin Funchess in the free agency and Parris Campbell in the draft to help bolster their WRs. Jason has pledged his allegiance to the Colts, naming them his preseason Super Bowl champion. Andrew Luck is recovering from a calf injury that seems to be lingering and warrants monitoring. Luck has the most weapons he has ever had to start a season, so hopes are high for this to be a top-5 offense and Luck to be a potential QB1 overall again. There is a question whether the new faces could hurt T.Y. Hilton’s dominant market share on the team but since Hilton’s value is not tied to TDs, and the new guys all seem to be TD specialists, the consensus is that Hilton will be fine. The RB duo of Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines both have upside but need to show improvement in different areas. Mack needs to prove he can maintain his TD pace to make up for his lack of presence in the passing game and Hines needs to improve his yards-per-catch numbers to keep his target share out of the backfield. You can’t mention the Colts without mentioning Eric Ebron and his 13 TDs. in 2018 There are many factors that point to it being next to impossible that he repeats that performance.

Ebron is not 2019’s only regression candidate, read about some others who may be affected.

Tennessee Titans (2018 Record: 9-7)

2018 Offensive Stats

Total Plays Rush Attempts Rush Yards/Game Pass Attempts Pass Yards/Game
938 (29th) 454 (9th) 126.4 (7th) 437 (31st) 185.9 (29th)

Projected Week 1 Starters (ADP)

QB: Marcus Mariota (NA)
RB: Derrick Henry (RB18, 3.07), Dion Lewis (RB53, 12.04)
WR: Corey Davis (WR40, 9,05), Tajae Sharpe (NA), Adam Humphries (NA), AJ Brown (NA)
TE: Delanie Walker (TE12, 11.07)

Additions:

QB Ryan Tannehill (Free Agent)
WR Adam Humphries (Free Agent)
WR AJ Brown (Rookie)

Subtractions:

N/A

Offseason Summary:

2018 was essentially a lost season for Marcus Mariota as he played thru a ton of injuries and it showed in his final stats. While the guys think that this team will be sneaky good in real NFL terms, that doesn’t always translate to fantasy football. There are too many WRs competing for pieces of a small pie. Davis is the most talented but he can’t be targeted on every play. Davis will take too many targets for any other WR to step up but they will take enough from him to diminish his value compared to most NFL WR1s. Jason’s favorite pass-catcher to make a real impact is 83-year-old Delanie Walker. He seems to be fully recovered from last year’s injuries and seems worth a late-round flier. The Running Back position, specifically Derrick Henry, has a little better outlook. Henry set the world on fire to end the 2018 season. The Titans have found the correct way to use Henry and should ride that workhorse all season long. One of the biggest knocks on Henry is that he is a non-factor in the passing game. If the Titans get behind, he could easily be scripted out of games.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2018 Record: 5-11)

2018 Offensive Stats

Total Plays Rush Attempts Rush Yards/Game Pass Attempts Pass Yards/Game
1005 (20th) 416 (12th) 107.7 (19th) 536 (19th) 194.3 (26th)

Projected Week 1 Starters (ADP)

QB: Nick Foles (NA)
RB: Leonard Fournette (RB16, 3.05)
WR: Dede Westbrook (WR46, 10.03), Keelan Cole (NA), Marqise Lee (NA), DJ Chark (NA),  Chris Conley (NA)
TE: Geoff Swaim (NA)

Additions:

QB Nick Foles (Free Agents)
RB Alfred Blue (Free Agent)
RB Ryquell Armstead (Rookie)
WR Chris Conley (Free Agent)
TE Josh Oliver (Rookie)

Subtractions:

QB Blake Bortles
RB TJ Yeldon
RB Carlos Hyde
WR Donte Moncrief

Offseason Summary:

An interesting note to start the season, the Jags defense is one of the higher drafted fantasy D/ST and that may be a huge mistake, They start the season against Kansas City and Houston and may end up as a great waiver claim in Week 3 but you do not want to run them out for Weeks 1 or 2, do not wast the draft capital. But back to the offense. Foles was brought in to stabilize this offense and has a pretty “up in the air” WR corps. Dede Westbrook has breakout potential. He checks a lot of boxes, including being tied for 5th in broken tackles for WRs. Marqise Lee is starting the preseason on the PUP but he is the WR that Jacksonville has paid and may represent the best value if healthy. Cole and Chark remain very raw, and Chris Conley has a lot of hype but this may be his first real opportunity to prove something. Outside of Westbrook, you’re not drafting these WRs. The hiring of OC John DeFilippo should mean that Jacksonville will be throwing A LOT. DeFilippo was fired from his last job in Minnesota for literally refusing to run the ball more at the request of his head coach. This compounds the issues surrounding Leonard Fournette. Fournette has been one of the least efficient backs in the NFL, but it has not hurt his fantasy value. What has hurt him is injuries, which seems like a very obvious thing to say. Fournette carries risk, but if he falls in your drafts, his upside is great. He has a top-10 RB ceiling.

Lauren Carpenter recently attempted to sort out the Jaguars offense and it’s worth a read.


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