AFC East Fantasy Football Breakdown Recap

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We’re ramping up as the NFL season approaches, and The Fantasy Footballers are now releasing three episodes per week!  If you missed the AFC East Divisional Breakdown episode or would like to recap what was discussed on the podcast, you’re in the right place.  The AFC East is arguably the most unpredictable division in the entire league. 

  • Will the Patriots be a Super Bowl contender without Tom Brady
  • Are the Bills the “team to beat” in the division? 
  • Can the Jets (who have a talented roster) win any games despite the b*hole that is head coach Adam Gase? 
  • Do the Dolphins take a step forward with a young, super talented roster behind second-year head coach Brian Flores?

Listen to the show for more context, but I’ll recap the highlights of the show in this article.

Looking for full statistical projections for the players on these teams? Be sure to check out the 2020 Ultimate Draft Kit!

New England Patriots

Head Coach: Bill Belichick

Offensive Coordinator: Josh McDaniels

2019 Offensive Stats

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  • Rush YPG: 128.4 – 8th
  • Rush TDs: 13 – 18th
  • Pass YPG: 201.8 – 26th
  • Pass TDs: 21 – 24th

Projected Week 1 Starters (ADP)

Additions:

Subtractions:

  • QB Tom Brady

Offseason Summary

The big story out of New England is that Tom Brady has moved on to the Buccaneers, meaning Bill Belichick will have to plan around a very different set of skill sets at the quarterback position.  We expect Cam Newton to be the starter, and he has always been productive when healthy.  Cam Newton seems to fit right in with his own revenge tour narrative, which has been a common theme for the Patriots despite their unprecedented success over the past two decades.  The entire New England roster has been faded in fantasy, and there may be some value to be had in Sony Michel (ADP 8.01), Julian Edelman (ADP 7.08), and N’Keal Harry (ADP 15th round) – among others.  Every season, we try to predict what Belichick will do – and we’re often wrong because he is a great coach who adapts well to new schemes.  This is his biggest challenge yet, and the range of outcomes is wide open for the Patriots season and their fantasy production.

Buffalo Bills

Head Coach: Sean McDermott

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Offensive Coordinator: Brian Daboll

2019 Offensive Stats:

  • Rush YPG: 128 – 8th
  • Rush TDs: 13 – 18th
  • Pass YPG: 202 – 26th
  • Pass TDs: 21 – 24th

Projected Week 1 Starters (ADP)

Player Additions

  • WR Stefon Diggs
  • Rookie RB Zack Moss (3rd Rd)
  • Rookie WR Gabriel Davis (4th Rd)
  • Rookie QB Jake Fromm
  • WR Isaiah Hodgins

Player Subtractions

Offseason Summary

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After a solid 2019 season, the Buffalo Bills have the opportunity to take another step forward.  Stefon Diggs has joined the team, and he’s known as a terrific route runner who can open up the field.  Josh Allen has another year under his belt and could improve as a passer. With his rushing production, he could be a value at his ADP in the eighth round.  Zack Moss (RB) was drafted in the 3rd round and should enhance the running game by replacing Frank Gore. The backfield is uncertain with Devin Singletary and Moss, especially since Josh Allen takes many of the goal-line carries.  Will Moss cut into Singletary’s work?  Will Singletary be handed the reigns and become a solid RB2?  Will Diggs be able to come in year 1 and deliver on a brand new team?  In the fantasy community, there is a lot of uncertainty and upside for the offensive pieces.  One thing’s for sure…Bills Mafia is hyped for the 2020 season, and for good reason.

New York Jets

Head Coach: Adam Gase

Offensive Coordinator: Dowell Loggains

2019 Offensive Stats:

  • Rush YPG: 72 – 32nd
  • Rush TDs: 10 – Tied for 24th
  • Pass YPG: 238 – 12th
  • Pass TDs: 22 – Tied for 19th

Projected Week 1 Starters (ADP)

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Player Additions

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  • WR Breshad Perriman
  • RB Frank Gore
  • Rookie WR Denzel Mims (2nd Rd)
  • Rookie RB La’Mical Perine (4th Rd)
  • Rookie QB James Morgan (4th Rd)

Player Subtractions

Offseason Summary

The New York Jets went 7-9 last season…what!?  When did that happen?  Sam Darnold had a winning record as a starter!  The Jets won more games than most of us remembered, but we all remember one important fact.  Adam Gase is still a bad head coach, who he ruins good things and fantasy production. Furthermore, he holds grudges – like his dislike for Le’Veon Bell.  I personally love Bell this year at his third-round ADP, but there is risk with Gase and his decision to bring in Frank Gore.  Meanwhile, Jamison Crowder appears to be a boring yet valuable receiver that you can draft in double-digit rounds.  As Andy said, his upside and floor are identical.  Breshad Perriman (WR), Denzel Mims (WR, rookie), and Chris Herndon (TE) have an opportunity to produce and can be drafted very late in drafts. Darnold will have streamable weeks and could develop into a consistent fantasy player, but it is best to avoid him in drafts due to his first two matchups being in Buffalo and versus San Francisco.  If the Jets can find a way to cut Gase out of the equation, we might actually find some diamonds in the rough this fantasy season.

Miami Dolphins

Head Coach: Brian Flores

Offensive Coordinator: Chan Gailey

2019 Offensive Stats:

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  • Rush YPG: 72 – 32nd
  • Rush TDs: 10 – Tied for 24th
  • Pass YPG: 238 – 12th
  • Pass TDs: 22 – Tied for 19th

Projected Week 1 Starters (ADP)

Player Additions

  • RB Jordan Howard
  • RB Matt Breida
  • Rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa
  • Rookie OT Austin Jackson (1st Rd)
  • Rookie WR Malcolm Perry (7th Rd)

Offseason Summary

Last season, we were talking about the Dolphins tanking for Tua.  They ended up going 5-11 and STILL being able to grab Tua in the 2020 NFL rookie draft.  Brain Flores appears to be a talented coach with a long term plan to be a playoff contender within the next couple of years.  The Dolphins added a lot of young, talented players through free agency and the NFL Draft.  It’s unclear if or when Tua will take the reigns from Ryan Fitzpatrick.  Fitzpatrick is streaky but opens up the door for offensive weapons like DeVante Parker, Preston Williams, and Mike Gesicki to produce for fantasy.  We should probably expect a drop in production if/when Tua takes over – although that might not be until next season.  Parker had an incredibly productive 2019 season but has a wide range of outcomes in 2020.  The backfield is completely new, and it’s unclear how it will shake out with Jordan Howard (ADP 7.12) and Matt Breida (ADP 9.04) in terms of touches and productivity.  It’s more likely that Jordan Howard becomes the lead runner, and he was productive as a new addition to the Eagles last season and in his two seasons with Chicago.  Additionally, Mike Gesicki is entering his third year and has the opportunity and upside to become a top-5 fantasy tight end – although his mini breakout happened last year when Preston Williams was injured.  Finally, remember that the Dolphins defense has been improved greatly since last season – so don’t expect them to be a cakewalk for opposing fantasy matchups.

Comments

The Stats are wrong! Especially the Patriots stats.

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