Week 3 Underperformers and Overachievers (Fantasy Football)
Week 3 has come and gone, and while it’s moving far too fast (for my liking), we are always thankful for more film and analytics to help you outwit, outplay, and outlast your league mates.
Today, we will highlight a few of the Underperformers & Overachievers from Week 3 of the NFL season. We will use predictive and advanced metrics such as Targets Per Route Run (TPRR), Red Zone Rushing, and Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) to parse through the weeds and decide what was random and what is here to stay.
If you haven’t already, check out the Advanced Metrics Glossary here!
Targets Per Route Run (TPPR)
Targets Per Route Run is the number of targets a player receives divided by the number of routes they run. This metric highlights a player’s involvement in the passing game, displaying which receivers are favored targets when they are on the field running routes.
Overachiever: Puka Nacua (Los Angeles Rams)
TPRR: 50%
Stat Line: 11 receptions (15 targets), 112 receiving yards
Fantasy Points: 17.3 (WR8)
For the second straight week, we’re highlighting the Rams’ WR room.
Against a fearsome Philly secondary, Puka saw a whopping 15 targets on 30 routes run. He had a 44.1% target share and saw 14 first-read looks on the day, displaying the amount of trust he has from both Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay.
Through the first three weeks, Puka leads all pass catchers in receptions (29) and yards (333), yet somehow his lone TD came on a 45-yard rush. He currently holds the WR1 overall spot over Amon-Ra St. Brown, despite scoring three fewer TDs, and the only thing holding him back is the presence of Davante Adams, who has received five end zone targets compared to Puka’s one. If that number can regress toward the mean in the upcoming weeks, the sky is the limit for this man.
Nacua Matata, my friends.
The highest-graded WR since the start of last season:
Puka Nacua – 93.0 🐏 pic.twitter.com/yDBnGuUtgp
— PFF (@PFF) September 12, 2025
Underperformer: Malik Nabers (New York Giants)
TPRR: 15%
Stat Line: two receptions (seven targets), 17 receiving yards
Fantasy Points: 2.3 (WR88)
Just one week removed from the WR1 overall performance, Malik Nabers was shut down entirely by Kansas City this week.
This was an unfortunate performance from Nabers – but certainly nothing to be alarmed about, and also not too surprising given the resume of Defensive Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. The Chiefs have been blessed with Spagnuolo, who continues to churn out top-ten defenses year after year, yet will seemingly never again receive legitimate Head Coaching interest. The Lions lost both of their coordinators this past season, while the Chiefs kept their entire front office intact.
If you drafted Nabers in the late first/early second round, you took him with the gamble that his talent would transcend his QB play. This season will undoubtedly be a roller coaster, but despite his WR88 performance this week, he still sits top-four in both targets and receiving yards. Now, we can only hope the quality of those targets increases.
Godspeed, Jaxson Dart.
The new faces of the Giants: Cam Skattebo and Jaxson Dart pic.twitter.com/IlFhCUcGMB
— Bussin’ With The Boys (@BussinWTB) September 23, 2025
Red Zone Rushing
The number of rushing attempts a player receives inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. This metric highlights how often a player is trusted in high-leverage scoring situations, showing who is most likely to be given opportunities to convert short fields into TDs.
Overachiever: Jonathon Taylor (Indianapolis Colts)
% of Team Red Zone Carries: 100%
Inside the 10: Five
Inside the 5: Three
Stat Line: 17 carries, 102 yards, three TDS | three receptions (four targets), 16 yards
Fantasy Points: 31.3 (RB1)
When Daniel Jones was appointed QB, I did not think for a moment that it might be bad for Jonathon Taylor. However, in Week 3, it has become increasingly important to discuss the goal-line role in this offense.
Through the first two weeks, Daniel Jones had four carries for three yards and three TDs from inside the five-yard line. It was severely disappointing for JT managers, who thought they had finally escaped the grips of Anthony Richardson. Turns out, Shane Steichen just can’t resist a Tush Push.
But, fortunately, that trend shifted this week, with Taylor taking 100% of the carries from inside the five, and the world finally making sense again. After two injury-ridden years, JT looks back to himself to start the 2025 season. It feels inevitable that they will start mixing in another back to spell his touches (presumably rookie DJ Giddens), but for the moment, he is a locked-and-loaded RB1 in this surprisingly efficient and high-powered Colts offense.
JONATHON TAYLOR WHAT A RUN 🤯😱
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/gVIrue74x3
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 21, 2025
Underperformer: De’Von Achane (Miami Dolphins)
% of Team Red Zone Carries: 33.3%
Inside the 10: One
Inside the 5: Zero
Stat Line: 12 carries, 62 yards rushing | seven receptions (nine targets), 29 yards receiving
Fantasy Points: 12.6 (RB16)
After seeing just five touches in the first two weeks, rookie RB Ollie Gordon had his best performance in Week 3, gaining 38 yards on nine carries and scoring the first TD of his career. Gordon slipped in this year’s draft due to a disappointing 2024 collegiate season, but appears to be earning the trust of this coaching staff and making the most of his opportunity via Jaylen Wright‘s training camp injury.
We entered the season knowing that some combination of Gordon/Wright may take goal-line touches, and it appears this transition is already underway. While Wright is expected to make his debut in the coming weeks, Gordon appears to be establishing himself as the goal-line back in Miami, taking both of the team’s carries from inside the five. De’Von Achane should never leave your lineup, but any hopes of him earning the goal-line role are diminishing quickly.
Ollie Gordon gets in the endzone to ruin all Devon Achane fantasy managers’ nightspic.twitter.com/JPf8OUxMem
— BSGsports (@BSGsportsmedia) September 19, 2025
Expected Fantasy Points (xFP)
Expected fantasy points (xFP) strips away player talent and efficiency and focuses solely on opportunity. It uses stats to project a player’s would-be fantasy points based on actual in-game metrics.
Overachiever: Tre Tucker (Las Vegas Raiders)
xFP: 14.7
Fantasy Points: 36.9 (WR1)
Ladies and gentlemen, please allow me to introduce the number one fantasy scorer: Tre Tucker.
While Jack Bech and Dont’e Thornton stole all the camp hype, apparently, it was Tre Tucker we should have been targeting all along. Tucker caught eight receptions on nine targets for 145 yards and three TDs this week – matching his total of the entire 2024 season. I wouldn’t expect a similar performance anytime soon (or ever), but it’s worth noting that he has played a 90+% snap share in every game this season, and has another positive matchup on tap in Chicago. Tucker will surely be a highly-touted waiver wire pickup and high ceiling/low floor (deeper league) FLEX option in Week 4.
Tre Tucker is this year’s Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
pic.twitter.com/KItEFVhwKA— Sam Choudhury (@SC_FFB) September 21, 2025
Underperformer: Chuba Hubbard (Carolina Panthers)
xFP: 15.9
Fantasy Points: 8.6 (RB29)
Truthfully, 17 carries for 73 yards is a respectable stat line, especially against an Atlanta defense that stymied the entire Minnesota offense last week. What was concerning in this performance is that, for some reason, Chuba ceded all red zone carries to Rico Dowdle, who took three carries from inside the 10, scoring once and finishing as the RB21 on the week. This can likely be attributed to the uncharacteristic blowout from the Panthers, but with multiple starting linemen on IR, this backfield split is one to monitor over the next few weeks.
Week 3 Fantasy Football Notes cont…
Chuba Hubbard is fading fast.
-Chuba has received 63% of carries but only 5 of the 10 carries inside the 10 the last two weeks
-Averaged 122 yards per game in wins last season, only 73 on Sunday.
-Low end flex moving forward pic.twitter.com/ULkakSE8HE— Brad Smith (@mackdaddyffb) September 23, 2025