Week 17 Underperformers & Overachievers (Fantasy Football)
Congratulations, FootClan, and thank you for another incredible season!
It feels like yesterday we were discussing Best Ball and doing weekly mocks. Yet here we are, 17 weeks later, with Championship Week coming in like…
Malik Willis almost got a concussion off this lmao pic.twitter.com/eD4Eet2DUq
— John (@iam_johnw) December 28, 2025
The performances we will discuss today either won you a Championship or put the final dagger in your season. You’re either feeling like a King, or (if you’re anything like me, who went 0-3 this week), reminding yourself that there are 364 more days until next year’s draft. Gotta toughen up.
“That one hurt a little, but I’m alright.”
Today, we will highlight a few of the Underperformers & Overachievers from Week 17 of the NFL season. We will use predictive and advanced metrics such as Targets Per Route Run (TPRR), the Bell Cow Report, and Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) to parse through the weeds and decide what was random and what is here to stay.
If you haven’t already, check out the Advanced Metrics Glossary here!
Targets Per Route Run (TPPR)
Targets Per Route Run is the number of targets a player receives divided by the number of routes they run. This metric highlights a player’s involvement in the passing game, displaying which receivers are favored targets when they are on the field running routes.
Overachiever: Wan’Dale Robinson (New York Giants)
TPRR: 50%
Stat Line: 11 receptions (14 targets), 113 yards
Fantasy Points: 16.8 (WR6)
Wan’Dale Robinson closed out a surprisingly stellar season as a combination of Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston, and Jaxson Dart‘s favorite target, seeing 140 in total, including a league-high 50% TPRR against a hapless Raiders defense in Championship week.
Wan’Dale received no praise for his 100-catch season in 2025 and wasn’t even considered in standard 10 and 12-team drafts.
With no Malik Nabers to hog targets, however, Wan’Dale became the de facto WR1 on a team void of playmakers. In a contract year, he was finally able to shed the “low aDot,” “slot only,” “security blanket” typecast he had fallen into, and showed he has much more versatility than Brian Daboll ever would have allowed.
The most impressive part of his performance was the cast of QBs (and coaches) he was able to overcome. New York had three different starting QBs this season, as well as a cast of questionable play callers, which removes any opportunity for chemistry to be built throughout the season.
The top of the 2026 free agent class consists of names like Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, Christian Kirk, Jauan Jennings, and Rashid Shaheed. While all of these players will be sought after, Wan’Dale is the youngest and healthiest of this group, and will likely be in line for a payday that none of us would have predicted a year ago.
If you were able to stash and ride out Wan’Dale this season, you were rewarded with the WR13 on the season (WR21 in PPG), as well as a WR1 performance in Championship week.
Congratulations to Wan’Dale on his first 1,000-yard season. It couldn’t have come at a better time.
#BREAKING: Former Wildcat Wan'Dale Robinson became the shortest wide receiver in NFL history to record 1,000 yards in a season.
What an accomplishment for the former Wildcat. #BBN pic.twitter.com/YeP6piXNML
— Kentucky Report (@thekyreport) December 29, 2025
Underperformer: Michael Pittman (Indianapolis Colts)
TPRR: 12%
Stat Line: two receptions (three targets), 16 yards
Fantasy Points: 2.6 (WR80)
After playing through a literal broken back in 2024, Michael Pittman‘s stock fell to a career-low ADP of WR49 this season.
As the WR21 on the season, he paid dividends to those who took a late-round shot on him, but unsurprisingly, the loss of Daniel Jones did not help his bounce-back year down the stretch. Pittman would finish with under 5.2 points in four of his last five games, and unfortunately, did not provide any help to anyone’s playoff runs.
In his defense, the loss of Danny Dimes affected the entire team. Halfway through the season, the Colts’ offense was rivaling the 2007 Patriots as the highest scoring team of all time, and although Phillip Rivers played far more admirably than any of us expected (against tough defenses, to boot), one can only overcome so much.
Pittman has never been a world beater, but he has been a consistent fantasy (and real-life) option whenever he’s not playing professional football with a broken back. With a quiet end to the season, he will likely present value again next year, as he will likely be a low-end WR3 by the time the season rolls around.
Are you serious Michael Pittman Jr.?! 😮 pic.twitter.com/qSNfK7ZRxZ
— NFL (@NFL) October 26, 2025
Bell Cow Report
The Bell Cow is a rare, mythical beast in the world of fantasy football. He is one who dominates his backfield in touches as both a rusher and receiver, displaying an elite skill set and putting the team on his back, à la Greg Jennings.
Overachiever: Aaron Jones (Minnesota Vikings)
% of Team Carries: 64.3%
% Target Share: 25%
% Team Yards: 39%
Stat Line: 18 carries, 53 yards rushing, TD | three receptions (four targets), 10 yards receiving
Fantasy Points: 13.8 (RB16)
The 2025 season will be one to forget for the Minnesota Vikings.
Despite all the offseason drama. Despite letting Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones both walk. Despite stringing along Aaron Rodgers like a teenage boy with his first crush. Despite the industry’s “Kevin O’Connell could turn a mailbox into a QB1 mentality.” Despite going “all in” on JJ McCarthy and building a roster to compete and win today, the Vikings have been eliminated from playoff contention and will be lucky to finish the season above .500.
But that is neither here nor there, as we’re here to talk about Aaron Jones.
The addition of Jordan Mason fooled many analysts (including myself) entering this season. Admittedly, I loved the value of Mason, predicting he would be the early-down and goal-line back, while Jones would fall into the hopeful-efficient category, with higher value and quality touches coming on third down and in the receiving game.
Mason was coming off a fantastic season in San Francisco, and the Vikings sent away valuable draft capital to onboard and pay Mason in the midst of one of the most RB-heavy classes of all time. This was not a necessary move from Minnesota, which signified a clear and apparent plan for him in the offense.
But, one season and several OL injuries later, Mason (and this offense as a whole) proved to be among the league’s most disappointing, while Aaron Jones continues to defy the test of time.
He must be on that TB12 stuff.
If you survived the first half of his injury-riddled season, you were thankful to have him down the stretch. The ceiling was low, but the floor was high, as he was arguably the most consistent player on this team in the second half of the season.
Jones’ salary and cap hit will both increase entering his age-32 season, but he remains the best player in this backfield, making a strong case to keep him at least one more year in Minnesota.
J.J. McCarthy to Aaron Jones to put the Vikings ahead!
MINvsCHI on ESPN/ABC
Stream on @NFLPlus and ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/yCrUxLdH1U— NFL (@NFL) September 9, 2025
Underperformer: Nick Chubb (Houston Texans)
% of Team Carries: 2.9%
% Target Share: 0.0%
% Team Yards: .003%
Stat Line: one carry, one rush yard
Fantasy Points: .1 (RB82)
The Texans’ trajectory has remained in a steadily opposite correlation to Nick Chubb‘s usage.
After starting the season 3-5, the Texans have won seven straight, and rookie Woody Marks has officially taken over the backfield. Against the Chargers this week, Marks saw 20 total touches, while Chubb received just one, for the second time in the past three games.
Chubb signed a one-year contract as it became apparent that Joe Mixon‘s status would be (still is?) up in the air. He proved serviceable during the first half of the season, bringing leadership and experience to this backfield, but has been unable to hold off Marks in the long run.
A once unstoppable force, Chubb’s career appears to be closer to the finish than the beginning. He has been one of my personal favorites over the past decade, and we wish him all the best in the upcoming free agency.
Nick Chubb has the Texans on top!
TBvsHOU on ESPN/ABC
Stream on @NFLPlus and ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/CmUmPdIa3A— NFL (@NFL) September 16, 2025
Expected Fantasy Points (xFP)
Expected fantasy points (xFP) strips away player talent and efficiency and focuses solely on opportunity. It uses stats to project a player’s would-be fantasy points based on actual in-game metrics.
Overachiever: Derrick Henry (Baltimore Ravens)
xFP: 28.5
Fantasy Points: 45.6 (RB1)
My God.
It must have been snowing in Vermont, because this was vintage Henry we had waited for all year.
With the season on the line (and Lamar Jackson on the bench), the Ravens came to Green Bay with a predictably run-heavy game plan. Even still, nobody saw this coming, as Henry gashed the Packers’ defense for 216 yards and four TDs, on a ridiculous 36 carries.
Congratulations to those of you who had Henry in your Championship lineups, as this performance single-handedly won leagues, with shades of Alvin Kamara‘s Christmas performance five years ago (a performance I somehow lost a Championship with).
Henry’s age and inevitable decline will continue to be highly discussed in 2026, but after another 1,500+ (all-purpose) yard, 16 TD season, there is little data to suggest he’s anything but an outlier, and an absolute stud.
A HISTORIC DAY FOR DERRICK HENRY:
👑 216 rushing yards
👑 4 touchdowns
👑 Moved to No. 4 all-time in rushing TDs
👑 Cracked the Top 10 in career rushing yards
👑 Probably won you a fantasy title pic.twitter.com/G4oR3YjyzV— NFL (@NFL) December 28, 2025
Underperformer: James Cook (Buffalo Bills)
xFP: 18.2
Fantasy Points: 8.2 (RB24)
It was unfortunate timing for Cook to put up a “dud,” but this (fantasy) performance became the status quo in this game.
Famously known for December blizzards, Buffalo hosted Philadelphia in something closer to a monsoon on Sunday. Both teams struggled to get their offenses rolling in the rain, but it was Buffalo who would surprisingly make several costly mistakes, handing Philadelphia another win as they start to heat up when it matters most.
The Eagles’ defensive line (and defense as a whole) looked as good as they have all season, bringing constant pressure, bottling up Josh Allen, and forcing big mistakes in even bigger moments. Most noticeably, however, Allen continues to struggle when defenses can slow down James Cook.
At RB13, Cook was mysteriously faded by the entire industry this season. Of course, the “TD regression” argument was easy to make, but I never fully understood the idea of fading a bell cow RB on one of the league’s premier offenses. Especially given that we knew the pass catchers would be unpredictable (outside of Allen), Cook would once again be the only reliable option in this offense.
And even today, while the world continues to gush over the elites like Jonathan Taylor, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and DeVon Achane, it is Cook who quietly leads the league in rushing yards (1,606), while coming in fourth in all-purpose yards (1,897). His 14 total TDs are just two away from his last season total, and interestingly enough, his pass-catching skills haven’t been used even remotely to where we expected them when he entered the league.
After two straight top-eight seasons (and no significant injuries), Cook should be a locked-and-loaded first-round pick entering 2026.
#LetJamesCook
JAMES COOK. 44-YARD TD.
BUFvsCLE on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/LuloZeFLqO
— NFL (@NFL) December 21, 2025
Thank you all for being here this season. It is you who makes this community so special.
We wish you all the best, and look forward to seeing you next year!