Trade Targets for Week 9 (Fantasy Football)

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I thought about just scrapping the trade article this week, out of pure sorrow over the loss of Cam Skattebo… Definitely pouring one out for an instant legend. Alas, the show must go on (albeit in a much less entertaining fashion).

Trading near the mid-point of the season takes on a whole new strategic approach. You have to take a long, hard look in the mirror and determine how your team can become playoff-bound. Are you already top of the heap, ready to optimize for the playoffs? Are you middle-of-the-pack, looking to stay competitive and lock in a playoff spot? Or are you sitting at the bottom, desperately praying you can make a run and sneak in?

The good news is you’ve got an opportunity to gain an edge on deals by looking at bye weeks and upcoming / playoff schedules. Here’s one nugget of strategy for each position in your league standings:

  • Middle of the pack: If I am in win-now mode, I’d consider giving up a bit of value in a trade to gain a player who has already had his bye week and trade away one that hasn’t. Because the fact is, it doesn’t matter how good your team is in Week 15 if you don’t make the playoffs. Win now, adjust later.
  • Bottom Feeder: If I am near the bottom of my league but still have an outside chance at making a run, I’m considering sending my stars in 2-for-1 trades to help fill the holes in my roster. It’s never fun to give up someone like Ja’Marr Chase or Christian McCaffrey, but again, they won’t do you any good in the Consolation Bracket. Consider getting two usable assets and see if you can creep back up the standings.
  • Top Dawg: If I’m sitting pretty right now, I am looking at the teams still fighting for position, and I’m exploiting the two scenarios above! Can I give up one solid starter and a usable player that can’t crack my current lineup to pick up a stud? Can I afford to take on a Week 14 bye player?

This is where the people who really pay attention make their hay. So strap in!

Players to Trade For

Zay Flowers

Shout-out to fellow Ballers Writer, Chris Cash, who first made me challenge my priors about Flowers when he selected him as his “My Guy” in our preseason Writers call. To be honest, I haven’t really ever been attracted to Baltimore pass catchers, because it’s such a run-heavy team with an elite running QB who has historically spread the ball around. But Flowers put together some really nice games last year, and it seemed like the torch was being passed from Mark Andrews to this young stud WR. The beginning of this season showed Lamar peppering Flowers with targets (31 targets in the first four games), and it is clear he is the #1 option when Baltimore passes.

I’m targeting Flowers this week specifically for a couple of reasons. First, Lamar is expected back, and this offense flows tremendously better when he’s at the helm. Targets from Lamar >> targets from any other QB on this roster. Secondly, Zay has already had his bye, so back to the points listed above, you may end up getting an extra week out of him, depending on who you trade away. And finally, the schedule really opens up from Weeks 11-15, which is such an important stretch of the fantasy season. I think Flowers will put up borderline WR1 numbers during that stretch, and he’ll be on a lot of playoff rosters as a result.

Jaylen Warren

Jaylen Warren is quietly sitting at RB24 on the season, and that includes missing a week to injury and a bye week. He has been very reliable (7.5 – 17.5 half-PPR fantasy points in every game) but hasn’t had that monster game that puts him squarely on the radar. He is getting 62% snap share, 69% of the rushing attempts, 71% of RB fantasy points, and 73% of the rushing yards in Pittsburgh. He’s also commanding a healthy 12.6% target share. He’s an excellent pass blocker (and catcher) and a decisive runner who is hard to bring down. He’s only got one TD on the season, which I believe will regress positively over the second half.

Sticking with the theme, he’s got two great things going for him, over and above the usage: As mentioned, Pittsburgh has already had its bye, and Warren’s schedule looks pretty juicy the rest of the season. Warren sees all “green” matchups from Weeks 10-15 (although I expect Baltimore to become a better rush defense as they continue to get healthy). And because he hasn’t had that breakout game, I think he is very easily attainable right now. Get him while we’re still in the thick of bye weeks and ride him to the playoffs.

Loved this training clip on SNF (of course, he was blown up in the backfield on the very next play, but sometimes it be like that!):

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Jaylen Waddle

The Dolphins have a lot of problems, no two ways about it. But since Tyreek Hill’s season-ending injury, Jaylen Waddle has been one of the few bright spots (shout-out to De’Von Achane, who continues to ball out while camping out inside a dumpster fire). We’ve seen Waddle step up in Tyreek’s absence in the past, and now that he’s got 10 more games with the receiving room to himself, I expect that trend to continue.

The Dolphins still have a Week 12 bye ahead, but it’s far enough out that teams at any place in the standings can go after him and “figure it out later.” Waddle has been WR8 since Hill’s departure, and he’s got a pretty juicy schedule the rest of the way as well, including fantasy playoffs matchups against Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Tampa Bay. The uptick in production is no secret, so you’ll have to pay up to get him, but he could be delivering fantasy championships this year.

Players to Trade Away

Bo Nix

I wanted to include Nix in last week’s article, but then I saw those three magical letters (DAL!) and knew I needed to wait a week. Nix predictably lit up the Dallas defense, to the tune of four passing TDs and a QB6 weekly performance. Coming off the incredible Week 7 comeback against the Giants (QB1), Nix is on quite a tear. But things get considerably tougher for him in the schedule for the rest of the season. And he’s also giving off Ben Roethlisberger vibes with his home/road splits (he only has four home games remaining in the fantasy season). I don’t think Nix is going to be bad per se, but I think you’re probably looking at his peak value, and I’d try to capitalize.

This is one where I’m looking at “downgrading” from Nix’s QB5 overall status and targeting a Goff+, Stafford+, or Jordan Love+ deal. I think all three could outperform Nix rest of season (plus he has a Week 12 bye), and I think Nix could be a QB2 moving forward. He could have more great games, but I’m not afraid to move on while he’s high.

RJ Harvey

The breakout is here! This is the guy Sean Payton drafted to fill the coveted “Joker” role! Not so fast. I like Harvey’s potential just as much as the next guy, but let’s dig into this big game a bit further before vaulting him into RB1 status. First —and this can’t be said enough —it was Dallas. Second, despite the big game, Harvey still logged only 27% of the snaps, which is on par with his usage all season long. Outside of his 40-yard TD run, Harvey had six carries for six yards and one catch for five yards. Long runs are in his repertoire, so you cannot totally discount that, but I’m not fully taking the bait either.

The two other factors that have me selling high are: 1) the fact that J.K. Dobbins also lit up this defense (15 rushes for 111 yards) AND commanded 52% of the snaps, and 2) the schedule moving forward is brutal. One of my favorite features of the Sleeper app is the ease with which I can see a snapshot of matchups, color-coded by difficulty. The Broncos’ RBs have enjoyed an almost-entirely green schedule thus far, and they will face an almost-entirely red schedule rest of season. Plus, they have the Week 12 bye. I’m seeing if I can sell high on RJ Harvey this week.

Emeka Egbuka (a.k.a. “Emeeka Egbigboo”)

I don’t want to shock anyone, but Egbuka’s numbers have been rough for the past three weeks. In PPR scoring, he has tallied 3.4, 7.8, and 5.0 points the last three weeks, good for WR69, WR34, and WR52, respectively. Not ideal. He’s also on bye this week, and his schedule rest of season is not good. And there is at least some expectation that Chris Godwin and (hopefully) Jalen McMillan will be returning to action in Week 10.

The good news is that he has been one of the hottest names in fantasy football this year, and I think you can still get good value in a trade for him. This one is a bit tricky because there is a nonzero chance he has been playing hurt these last few weeks and will come back after the bye and resume being a total badass. But I’m open to offers for him, and I’m even fishing around to see if I can package him with a flex player to get a big upgrade at WR. I’ve tried sending him + Tyjae Spears (who I do like, FWIW) for Amon-Ra, JSN, Lamb, or Ja’Marr Chase thus far. And I’ve also sent that same package for tandems like Ladd + Jaylen Warren OR Chase Brown + Zay Flowers.

At least Gronk got a chance to meet Egbuka and clear the air on one of the best name screw-ups of all time!

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Hit Me Up!

I’m still loving all the interaction regarding your trades! Hit me up on X @kempertrull and let me know what you’re trying to pull off. This week, I chatted with user @huffina10r, who was sitting at the bottom of his league with holes in his roster AND the added stress of half of his team out on bye-maggedon. He ended up trading away Egbuka for Zay Flowers + Jaylen Warren (already had their byes) and is feeling pretty good after just one week. Plus, he got himself a huge W this week. Well done, Heath!

Comments

Badboyz1386 says:

Do I trade away Jakobi Meyers (before the NFL trade deadline) for AJ Brown.. full PPR, 12 man league (1QB, Super flex)

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