Trade Targets for Week 12 (Fantasy Football)

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Ugh, what a rough week for fantasy production and player health alike! The injuries absolutely piled up this week, and you NEED to catch up with Matthew Betz’s injury recap column. As for the players who weren’t injured? Well, they kinda sucked, for the most part. I saw low scores across nearly every one of my fantasy leagues, and this week’s waiver wire is going to be one for the ages. If your waivers haven’t run by the time this article comes out, be sure to check out the Ballers Week 12 Waivers episode HERE. And check out my guy Joe Beldner’s Waiver Wire column as well. This could be the most important waiver run of the season!

As for me, I’m back with this week’s batch of trade targets to help you down the stretch!

Players to Trade For

Jameson Williams / Amon-Ra St. Brown / Jared Goff

I am targeting the Detroit offense in a big way down the stretch. Not only are the Lions (6-4) in a dog fight with the Bears (7-3) and Packers (6-3-1) for the NFC North, but this is a team that has expectations of contending for the #1 seed in the NFC every year. Last week’s loss to the Eagles certainly Hurts (couldn’t help myself) those chances, but I believe the Lions are going to make some serious noise to close the season.

The biggest factor for Jameson Williams here is the Dan Campbell effect, which automatically gives this team +100 aura (as my kids would say). Now that he has taken over play-calling from John Morton, we’ve seen much more consistent and explosive use out of Williams. I wrote a preseason article on the case for Jamo as a WR1, and this recent level of usage was the biggest key. Now that we’re seeing it, with three top-15 WR performances in a row, I am all-in on Jamo as a second-half stud.

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Amon-Ra is already WR4 overall in half-PPR, so this is not going to be an easy acquisition. But coming off a dud performance against the Eagles, this may be your only chance to buy.

Maybe even more important than the Dan Campbell effect is the fact that the Lions will be playing in a dome for the rest of the fantasy season. That’s right, we’ve got six consecutive dome games coming up for a team with its back against the wall. Goff is a different player in climate-controlled games. I believe the Lions go nuclear to finish the season.

Troy Franklin

Another week, another 8+ target output for Franklin, who is dominating the Denver WRs in targets over the last five weeks. He now has 45 targets in that span, which ranks fifth in the NFL! He’s also fifth in the league in WR points scored during that span (64.5), churning out four double-digit half-PPR outputs in those five games. Somehow, I think managers still view this as a bit fluky, but I’m buying it for what it is: a new WR1 in Denver.

The lack of buzz, coupled with the Broncos’ Week 12 bye, makes this a nice “buy” window for Franklin. If his current manager is sitting middle-of-the-pack and can’t really afford to take a zero this week, offer a player of slightly lesser value that has already had his bye week, and sell it accordingly. If I can trade away DK Metcalf or Romeo Doubs+ for Franklin, I’m doing it. Heck, if I could trade Courtland Sutton for Franklin, I’m doing it!

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Players to Trade Away

Deebo Samuel

Deebo put together a nice showing against Miami in Week 11, and I am capitalizing on that performance and moving on. His production has been up-and-down all season, with four WR1 weeks and four weeks outside the top-45. I don’t love that consistency, especially as we get into win-now games leading up to the fantasy playoffs.

Beyond inconsistency, Deebo has several factors working against him to finish the season. Strike One is the Week 12 bye. Strike Two is the fact that the Commanders are 3-8, and there is absolutely no incentive to rush Jayden Daniels back this season. Strike Three is the remaining schedule, which includes matchups against Denver and Minnesota (the 1st and 7th-toughest matchups for WRs) in Weeks 13 and 14. I like the matchups in Week 15 and 17 against the Giants and Cowboys, but you’ve got to be in the playoffs for those to matter, and Deebo won’t help you get into the playoffs. Maybe you can sell those matchups to a team locked into the playoffs and unload Deebo.

Oronde Gadsden

It’s been fun watching Gadsden return value for those draftniks who “just knew” he’d be a diamond in the rough. I still think the talent is there and that he’s got a very bright future within this offense. However, this team is limping into the bye week, and there are some seriously tough matchups ahead. The entire passing offense has been disastrous since losing star left tackle, Joe Alt. In plus matchups against Pittsburgh and Jacksonville, Justin Herbert & Co. have put up just over 300 passing yards, with one TD and one INT – combined – over the last two games!

The bye week is coming at the right time for the Chargers, but losing a player to a bye this late in the season is rough for a fantasy team. Hopefully, the Chargers work on some protection packages over the break and come back with a plan to throw the ball more effectively down the stretch. Regardless, Gadsden will also have to contend with the toughest TE strength of schedule for the rest of the season. On average, he’s expected to produce 2.36 points per game under expectation, based on PAE data for each matchup. I’m targeting the team that lost Sam LaPorta, or the one that has been playing TE roulette all season, and I’m working up a deal ASAP.

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The Ballers’ Strength of Schedule Report is one of the many great tools available to FootClan members!

Orande Gadsden Remaining Schedule
Week 12 13 14 15 16 17
Matchup BYE LV PHI @KC @DAL HOU
Rank Against TE N/A 5 1 7 17 9
PAE N/A -2.4 -5.3 -2.2 0.2 -2.1

Rico Dowdle

I’m surprised this article snuck past Mike Wright, as I spew sacrilege about his golden boy! I like Rico as much as the next guy, but I have a few concerns for his fantasy output over the next few weeks. Most obvious is the Week 14  bye, which I just absolutely hate in fantasy football. As teams are jockeying for position, making moves, and sending up Hail Marys, the last thing we should have to worry about is not having one of the core pieces of our fantasy roster in what is typically the final week of the fantasy regular season! If you are in the playoff hunt and need W’s every week, you just can’t afford to keep players who won’t play for you in these pivotal weeks. The only caveat this year, and it’s a devastating one, is that the 49ers also have a Week 14 bye. But truthfully, if you rostered Christian McCaffrey this season, you are probably safely in the fantasy playoffs anyway.

Equally concerning for Dowdle is the poor health of the offensive line in Carolina, and the corresponding steep drop in efficiency in the run game. Dowdle has been a back-end top-20 RB over the last two weeks, thanks to a TD in Week 10 and a 5/55 receiving line in Week 11. But his YPC dropped to a dismal 2.94 YPC against New Orleans in Week 10 and 2.37 YPC against Atlanta last week. The offensive line has been reshuffled each of the last several weeks, and Carolina is struggling to find the right groove. To make matters worse, Dowdle also has to face the third-hardest rush defense in a Week 13 matchup against the Rams. I would see what the Chase Brown manager is up to these days, and see if you can get a conversation started.

Hit Me Up!

It’s impossible to account for every different league type or playoff scenario in an article highlighting just a few players. So, if these players don’t fit what you’re currently dealing with, hit me up on X @kempertrull and fire away any trade questions you’ve got!

Comments

Kyle says:

Just got offered Waddle and Bucky for London and Tet. 10 man full ppr double flex. What do you think of that in a vacuum?

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