Things That Matter & Things That Don’t: Week 15 (Fantasy Football)
The fantasy season is filled with noise; sometimes, it can be hard to know what is real and what is a mirage. I’m here to look underneath the bed and see if I can decipher what’s really going on around here. Is what we saw actually meaningful, or was it a creation of some unusual circumstance that is likely not to repeat? I’ll lay out some of the most intriguing or surprising storylines, analyze some of the conditions and fluctuations we saw this week, and tell you which things matter and which things don’t. Let’s dig into it.
Nick Chubb’s Broken Foot: MATTERS, AND ADD JEROME FORD (THOUGH, THAT’S ALSO WHAT WE THOUGHT BEFORE)
Sheesh! Can the fantasy football gods just cut the man a break?! Embattled Nick Chubb has had a rough go the last couple of years, and Sunday night, it was confirmed he broke his foot and will miss the rest of 2024.
This should elevate Jerome Ford to the role he had to start the season. Ford slid into the role this weekend and looked great in the box score, although 62 yards came on a single rush late in the game, and he had a 3.7 YPC leading up to that. One thing Ford has going for him already is that he has operated as the team’s third-down and hurry-up back. That’ll likely come in handy against Cincinnati and Miami, who should both control Cleveland.
We should also remember that, before Chubb was active in Week 7, many anticipated Ford to get the lion’s share of the workload. Instead, he got 37% of the Browns’ rushing attempts through Week 6, while D’Onta Foreman got 27% and Pierre Strong got 12%.
Jameis Winston’s Interceptions: MATTER IN DYNASTY (PROBABLY) NOT IN REDRAFT (YET)
After throwing three picks Sunday, Jameis Winston was removed from the lineup late in the game for Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Thompson-Robinson is younger, so there is a passing inclination that perhaps the Browns should want to get a look at him in a lost season.
The problem is that Thompson-Robinson has been pretty bad every time he has played. He didn’t look any better on Sunday, completing less than 50% of his passes and throwing a pick of his own. What we see, the Browns also see; they know better than we do that he is not the answer.
At least one of Winston’s interceptions was a team effort, as it hit Chubb in the hands, and he more or less handed it to a defender instead of catching it. The weather was poor off the coast of Lake Eerie, as it often is this time of year. Strong wind is a notorious turnover amplifier. Research has indicated it has as much impact as any other weather event, changing the trajectory of passes, making it hard for receivers to track the ball, and increasing interceptions and fumbles while reducing completion percentage.
By now, the Browns probably recognize that Winston is not the answer for the near future; the league, too. However, tomorrow is not promised for HC Kevin Stefanski and GM Andrew Berry, and Winston likely provides them the best opportunity to win games and appear competent. If Winston plays, evaluating other players is also easier; Thompson-Robinson will probably turn the ball over less but not lead as many meaningful drives.
I expect Winston to be announced as the starter for at least one more week. But the hook is cued up in case he can’t improve quickly. The question on fantasy managers’ minds will be, what if it happens mid-game? The good news is, if Winston is your QB, it’s probably a consolation bracket game.
Patrick Mahomes’s Injury: PROBABLY WON’T MATTER MUCH FOR FANTASY
There’s a ruthlessness in assessing that someone else’s injury doesn’t matter to you, but Patrick Mahomes is 15th among QBs in fantasy scoring.
If you are in a single-QB league, this is nothing that can’t be replaced off the wire. The next two matchups are brutal for the Chiefs. They are also well out in front of the Bills for the AFC one-seed. And even if life with Carson Wentz starts to chip away at the lead, the Chiefs can always save their rushing-back-Mahomes phase until it matters. As such, there’s probably a fair chance the Chiefs will try to sit him this week.
Even with the third-most dropbacks in the league, the Chiefs’ pass catchers have been unreliable other than Travis Kelce because no one outside of Kelce has a target share of 20% or more. A 19% market share, like what Xavier Worthy has in his past six games, at Mahomes’ 35.7 dropbacks/G, is fewer than seven targets/G on average. Mahomes has been highly inefficient with -46 fantasy points over expected (FPOE), the worst FPOE of his career. This lack in Mahomes’s efficiency manifests in the efficiency of his pass-catchers. As such, all but Kelce are found outside the top 40 in fantasy points/G at their position.
Chiefs’ pass-catchers outside of Kelce already don’t matter much; losing Mahomes can’t make them matter much less.
Brian Thomas, Jr. & Brenton Strange: DON’T MATTER AS MUCH AS THIS GAME SEEMED TO INDICATE
The Jags ran 85 offensive plays. The NFL league average is between 60 and 70, with the mean landing in the 64-65 zone. The Jags, coming into the week, were averaging the fewest in the league at 58 per 60 minutes, which is just a fancy way of saying without including overtime. That’s an extra 27 plays on their season average and about 20 more plays than the league average.
With all that extra play volume, Mac Jones threw 46 attempts. This raised everyone’s target volume, so Brian Thomas, Jr. received 14 targets while Brenton Strange, taking over for the injured Evan Engram, earned 12. If their normal rate is 68% of this volume, we can adjust Thomas’s total targets to something around 9.5 and Strange’s to 8.16 in a normal game, which are far more realistic numbers.
Are they still usable in fantasy? Sure. Just don’t assume they will do this most weeks.
Alvin Kamara’s Injured Groin: CLEARS THE WAY FOR KENDRE MILLER IN AN OFFENSE THAT PROBABLY CAN’T MATTER
Alvin Kamara made one of the week’s best catches, but he hurt his groin on the play. He tried to keep going but was unable to continue. With the Saints in a lost season, it’s hard to imagine them pushing Kamara to play if he’s in a bad way. This could make Kendre Miller one of the hottest adds of the week off the waiver wire.
The matchups are pretty decent going forward. Of greater concern for Miller and company is that the Saints have had so many injuries at this point that they are unrecognizable. Beneath everything, Klint Kubiak’s play-calling is still auspicious, but it is like food being fed to an arthritic body that can’t process that energy into efficient movement. The Saints won’t likely get any better by losing their last remaining offensive star, so Miller inherits a tall task.
Geno Smith’s Injury: HOPEFULLY DOESN’T MATTER
From one team that doesn’t need its star to risk it to another team that could really use it: Seattle lost Geno Smith to a knee injury on a hit sustained by Packers’ LB Edgerrin Cooper on Sunday Night. With the loss, the Seahawks drop to second place in the NFC West (on tie-breakers). Coming down the home stretch in a super close race, the Seahawks would no doubt prefer to use Smith if he’s available.
Smith’s absence may create a ripple effect on Jaxon Smith-Njigba and DK Metcalf, but it may not be overly significant. Sam Howell, who would start in his place, has a little Jameis in him and could potentially continue to support the pass-catchers while simultaneously harming the team by taking sacks and turning the ball over.
Also, Seattle HC Mike McDonald said in a presser that the knee seems structurally sound. That sounds encouraging. Hopefully, Smith, who has proven to be resilient, is available, and it’s business as usual in Puget Sound.
A Clearing Runway for James Conner in Arizona: COULD MATTER
James Conner has floated just outside of the top 12 among RBs in percentage of team rush attempts and percentage of team opportunities. Part of this has been owed to sharing with Emari Demarcado and Trey Benson.
Demarcado went on IR with a back injury and will miss the rest of the season. Benson left the game early on Sunday against New England. Conner hasn’t had a super-high efficiency this year, but he has enough to make it pay off if he can see an increase in workload. Sunday, we saw a sneak preview of what that might look like, and Conner took 21 touches for 138 yards and two scores.
Keep an eye on Benson; if he is healthy, he could slide into a more meaningful role down the stretch so the Cardinals can keep a governor on Conner. But if Benson’s injury is significant, Conner could be an RB1 in the fantasy playoffs with matchups against Carolina and the LA Rams on tap. Carolina has been abysmal against the run all year and was torched by Rico Dowdle this week. The Rams’s defense, in general, has been almost as bad.
A Kimani Vidal Summer Fling in L.A.: IS BREWING AND MAY MATTER
If you missed my Summer Fling metaphor last week, check out the write-up on Sincere McCormick to kick off last week’s edition. This week, another candidate enters from the West: Kimani Vidal.
If you’ve been with me since the summer, you know I expected Vidal could factor in at some point. The thesis was that Gus Edwards was old, J.K. Dobbins was injury-prone, and Vidal had a three-down skillset, despite being picked in the sixth round out of Troy.
It took a while; I won’t act like I’ve got all the shares of Vidal that I started with. But the moment has arrived. Gus Edwards has been inefficient since Dobbins went down; This week, Vidal more than doubled him in snaps, running 16 routes to Edwards’ two. Edwards still had more carries, but he ran for 2.9 YPC. Vidal continuing to cut into the workload and become relevant is conceivable. We get another free look this week; no one would want to play him against Denver’s staunch defense, but we can scoop him up, hold him, and monitor the usage there. If Vidal emerges with a share we like, we may be able to flex him out in Week 17 against New England.
Saquon Barkley’s 65-Yard Rushing Output: MIGHT MATTER BUT MIGHT NOT
Saquon Barkley is golden for the rest of your fantasy season. Play him with confidence this week. But what happened to him this week typifies exactly what makes elusive single-season records difficult to break.
Coming into the game, Barkley needed roughly 126 yards/G to catch Eric Dickerson’s all-time single-season rushing record of 2,105 (set in 16 games, but I digress). After a 65-yard effort against Pittsburgh Sunday, he now needs 139. That’s quite different in that Barkley was already averaging 124.8/G coming into that one, right in line; now, he is averaging 120.6, needing to improve his impossible pace by 19/G. This may de-incentivize the Eagles to let him go for it if the final game is made meaningless.
On the other hand, the Eagles are tied with the Lions for the best record in the NFC since the Bills knocked Detroit off on Sunday. If they are in a race for the one-seed and the only conference bye, the Eagles may be re-incentivized to keep Barkley in the mix.
Bucky Irving’s Back is Back, and That: MATTERS
You may be tired of it; sorry. Bucky Irving has a chance to be one of the most consequential players of the 2024 fantasy football season. Everything was set up for Irving to emerge as that player you needed, but a back injury plagued him last week and manifested in his leaving early. This week, he again seemed uncertain, but he finished the game.
Not only so, he looked amazing doing it, posting his second 100-yard game in as many (healthy) games. After the game, the silence surrounding his injury spoke loudly. Bucky seems to be fine. And with matchups upcoming against Dallas and Carolina, he is again poised to bring home fantasy championships.