Things That Matter & Things That Don’t: Week 14 (Fantasy Football)
The fantasy season is filled with noise; sometimes, it can be hard to know what is real and what is a mirage. I’m here to look underneath the bed and see if I can decipher what’s really going on around here. Is what we saw actually meaningful, or was it a creation of some unusual circumstance that is likely not to repeat? I’ll lay out some of the most intriguing or surprising storylines, analyze some of the conditions and fluctuations we saw this week, and tell you which things matter and which things don’t. Let’s dig into it.
The Sincere McCormick Summer Fling: MIGHT HAPPEN AND MIGHT MATTER
I’m 46 and started playing fantasy football in my dad’s league when I was 13. Let me help you with the math; that was 33 years ago in 1991.
I’ve learned many lessons through the years, but the late Gary Brown taught me one of the earliest and most impactful. I acquired Brown, a Houston Oilers RB, off waivers after an injury to Lorenzo Neal in 1993; Brown proceeded to rattle off eight games at an average of 125+ yards, narrowly eclipsing 1,000 yards in half a season. He was quite meaningful to me based on what he had done in ’93, so naturally, I scooped him in the early-middle rounds in 1994. He gained 641 yards in ’94, gaining 3.6 YPC, giving way to Neal, who outproduced him.
This type of RB happens in fantasy football all the time. It’s what I call a Summer Fling. You can steal that if you’d like—or, I don’t know, maybe it’s confusing since they happen November-ish and December-ish. But I hope the sentiment I’m trying to convey with that is obvious. You ride the rush and feel on top of the world. But in the end, it was always momentary; never try to make it more than it was.
Last year, Raiders RB Zamir White was the Summer Fling. He won people their leagues by emerging at crunch time for a fantasy playoff surge. There have been many like him: Kevin Smith, Steve Slaton, Zac Stacy, C.J. Anderson (twice), Montee Ball, Alex Collins, and Damien Williams have all won fantasy managers trophies one year, then destroyed their chances the next after they are inevitably pumped up into the RB dead zone, or worse.
This year, another Raiders RB threatens to be our next Summer Fling: Sincere McCormick.
Due to injuries to ham-and-eggers Alexander Mattison and White, and underwhelming returns from long-time role player Ameer Abdullah, who was initially elevated, McCormick has steadily been entrusted with more and more responsibility, each week passing another test. With a 5.5 YPC coming into Week 14, McCormick was thrust into 15 carries against Tampa Bay and gained another 5.2 YPC. McCormick got all but one Raiders carry.
He’s going to get more; he’s been far and away the most efficient rusher on the team this year. Whoever gets the work for Vegas has a friendly RB fantasy schedule, drawing Atlanta, Jacksonville, and New Orleans. If McCormick gets the work, he may continue to produce.
But remember next draft season: it was never meant to last.
Breece Hall’s Injury: COULD MATTER A LOT MORE THAN WE’RE GIVING IT CREDIT FOR
Breece Hall has been battling multiple injuries; seemingly, he’s been fighting off his ailments for some time. He keeps going on injury reports, but up until now, he’s always filled his normal workload come Sunday. However, this time, an ill wind blew midweek, and by Friday night, it became obvious that Hall would miss the game against Miami.
Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis split the work in his stead and did fine. The Jets fell to 3-10 after a frustrating snatch-defeat-from-the-jaws-of-victory kind of thing; they thought they had successfully conquered a game-winning drive in regulation only to surrender a soul-crushing long kick return, leading to overtime and a bizarre loss.
The Jets face many existential questions. A lot of players on the team may not be in 2025, but one who probably will be is Hall. If the Jets see this as a lost season and want to preserve Hall for brighter days, it might make sense to shut him down. The Jets insist they aren’t there yet, but that’s where this kind of feels like it is heading.
Sadly, if Allen and Davis split the role, it will be tough to trust either in a good string of fantasy playoff matchups.
A Tyreek Hill Game That Didn’t Stink: PROBABLY MATTERS, BUT I’M IN WAIT-AND-SEE MODE
On the other side of the Jets game, the Dolphins showed a ton of moxie en route to tearing the Jets’ hearts out. As the Dolphins tried to keep up, Tua Tagovailoa started to seek his dynamic duo of WRs far more often and each ended Sunday’s game with good fantasy numbers. Waddle earned 9-99-0 (I wrote about Waddle in this space recently); Hill busted through with 10-115-1. Meanwhile, Jonnu Smith, who has been the lifeblood of the offense, didn’t earn a catch until three grabs on the final drive in overtime, including the game-winner.
One thing that matters for Miami is that they won; the more they do so, the more they will keep their best players on the field. If they fell out of the race, they might prefer risk mitigation.
But did they come to Jesus, and will peppering Hill and Waddle be their new M.O.? The jury’s still out. One thing we do know is that the game plan was no more vertical Sunday than it has been; Tagovailoa’s 5.8-yard aDOT was lower than his 6.1-yard season average.
While Jonathon Was Sleeping, Chuba Hubbard Became Reliable: WHICH MATTERS
Rookie Jonathon Brooks, 2024’s highest-drafted RB, has been brought along brutally slow. Fantasy managers can be impatient about that sort of thing; we complained, wailed, and sighed. I think most of us assumed the Panthers were being overly careful since the season is lost—all but the Chuba Hubbard managers, who kept on feeling like they were getting away with something. Finally, we got a glimpse of the white tiger in its natural habitat; but just as quickly, he is probably gone.
Brooks buckled on the third series Sunday, after a non-contact injury. He didn’t return. Whether he did more structural damage, reinjured the old structure, or just had a scare, the Panthers probably won’t be inclined to rush him back anytime soon; my most likely non-professional guess is that he’s done for 2024.
Between this and a Raheem Blackshear injury, it looks like Chuba Hubbard will continue to be what he has been. As a bonus, Carolina looks increasingly more competent with each game. Maybe the Panthers’ 2024 RB room is a romantic comedy script, and the real league-winner was the one by your side all along.
Bucky Irving’s Injury: PROBABLY (LUCKILY) WON’T MATTER… I HOPE?
Keeping with the theme of RB injuries, one of my favorites, Bucky Irving, came into the week with an injury designation but was ultimately cleared before kickoff. He started the game but was pulled relatively early on. This would seem like a troubling development except for two things:
For one, the Bucs were killing the Raiders, and, early on, it didn’t seem like Tampa Bay would need their full arsenal to win the day.
For another, it was reported after the game that Irving was yanked as a precaution. I’ll leave the higher-level analysis to Matthew Betz, but that sounds encouraging and hopefully means the injury is not seen as serious or long-term.
Or maybe I just hope for that.
Isaac Guerendo‘s Injury: PROBABLY (LUCKILY) WON’T MATTER… I HOPE?
Scroll up one, cut, and paste here.
Isaac Guerendo downplayed the injury he suffered to his foot that knocked him out of the game, but an MRI is coming soon. This is all hopefully precautionary based on what the player has said (we can always trust them, right?). Many fantasy managers (rightfully) dumped the rest of their FAAB on Guerendo; it would be cool for them if they could get more than one game out of him, especially since he seemed as advertised with 128 all-purpose yards and two tuddies in a partial game.
Fireball Jones: DOESN’T MATTER
I know you guys are smart; sometimes I don’t want to do one, because I’m sure I’m not telling you anything you don’t already know. But here goes nothing.
The Lions are an incredible offense, and they will generate pass-related fantasy points, even as they run slow at the line and remain relatively run-heavy. This is because they gain first downs and score TDs. In this one game, the high-value targets didn’t go to Sam LaPorta or Amon-Ra St. Brown. They went to Tim Patrick.
This is an incredible story; Patrick has had two of the hardest hard-luck years for a football player in recent memory, so seeing him dance, smile, and point to the sky in the post-game interview warmed the coldest of hearts. But of course, Patrick got six targets and an 18% target share. This won’t create sustainable fantasy scoring in an offense that only accumulates 64 plays per game, and he won’t box out Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, or David Montgomery, who are going to get theirs. Additionally, their fantasy playoff schedule is brutal with Buffalo, Chicago, and San Francisco on tap.
So, this was fun for Thursday, but it likely won’t be a thing. If anything, Patrick’s presence will annoy fantasy managers with shares of the other five players from time to time, as it no doubt did Thursday.
But then, you already knew that.
Jordan Addison Explosion: PROBABLY MATTERS
Jordan Addison exploded for 8-133-3 against Atlanta. This is his second WR1 game in three weeks. Let’s look at the pros and cons here.
On the positive side, Addison is a second-year receiver. The second-year breakout is real, and Addison’s profile always made him an attractive candidate for this. In his last four games, he has had a market share of 29.5% and a YPRR of 3.15. Though the Vikings only accumulate 64 plays per 60 minutes, they rank ninth with 2.19 points per drive and are tied for the fourth-fewest plays per drive. This means they gain chunk yardage resulting in TDs, which increases everyone’s efficiency. They also have a narrow target distribution, only meaningfully including three downfield pass-catchers and Aaron Jones. A percentage in the 25-30% range in an offense like that will work.
On the other hand, we know three-TD games aren’t sustainable and puff up fantasy scoring. Also, Atlanta is pretty bad in pass defense, ranking 20th in EPA per dropback allowed and 22nd in defensive success rate on dropbacks coming in and owning the fifth-worst pressure rate over expected. They were particularly horrid on Sunday. Darnold had an excellent game, but it was inflated by a few big plays. Two long TDs—one to Addison and one to Jefferson—were badly underthrown (Jefferson’s defender actually went full Miss Congeniality (second Sandra Bullock reference in one article, thank you) in a GIF-able faceplant, leaving Jefferson alone to track back around three to five full yards and wait for the ball to land). Another bomb shot to Addison that didn’t result in a score was underthrown as well. But defenders frequently were nowhere to be found, and these moments resulted in massive plays.
Addison is good; the offense is good. Play him if you’ve got him.
Zach Charbonnet’s Points Explosion: DOESN’T MATTER
We already know Zach Charbonnet is one of the marquee contingency backs in the NFL; this was known. Charbonnet had averaged 15.95 half-PPR points per game in Walker’s absences dating back to last year entering Sunday’s game with Arizona. Charbonnet earned 34.8—best of any RB this week—with 22-134-2 on the ground, adding 7-59-0 through the air. This included a 51-yard scamper where he burst through a mouse hole and outran everyone who had crashed down to try and stuff him at the line.
But so much of it was based on big plays, something Charbonnet hasn’t been known for. Coming into the week, Charbonnet had zero breakaway yards all year. That’s zero, zero, zero, point zero. Seattle has a tough road with Green Bay, Minnesota, and Buffalo on tap and will probably have Kenneth Walker back. This was a one-off.
Keeping Perspective on This Silly Game: MATTERS
This is the most important one. Maybe you had a win-and-in scenario this week already; if not, those start now. This is a statistics-based game. That means variance is built in.
Variance is what makes fantasy football exciting. If we didn’t have that—if we just had little robots doing as they were programmed on every play so that the most probabilistic thing always happened—well, that wouldn’t be very fun, would it? But variance is also the reason you make an optimal decision that doesn’t work out or your opponent does something that makes no sense at all, and it wins them their week. It’s maddening if you let it be.
But breathe. It’s a game. It’s fun because you could lose; otherwise, it wouldn’t be fun when you do win. But if you can lose, some of you will lose; you might even have the better team. But try not to let it sting too bad. Variance was always baked into the cake, so it doesn’t mean you did something wrong. Sometimes, your opponent hits on 18 and draws a three. It happens.
Good luck in the fantasy playoffs, everyone!!!