Things that Matter and Things that Don’t: Week 4
The fantasy season is filled with noise; sometimes, it can be hard to know what is real and what is a mirage. I’m here to look underneath the bed and see if I can decipher what’s really going on around here; is what we saw actually meaningful, or was it a creation of some unusual circumstance that is likely not to repeat? I’ll lay out 10 of the most intriguing or surprising storylines, analyze some of the conditions and fluctuations we saw this week, and tell you which things matter and which things don’t. Let’s dig into it.
Rashee Rice’s Significant Injury: MATTERS IN SEVERAL WAYS
First, Rice’s apparent season-long absence will matter to those who drafted him. Rice was among the best values in fantasy for early drafters who plucked him in the fifth, sixth, or even seventh round in early August. Obviously, the universe was displeased that so many people got free WR1 production from the middle rounds. So, the bully universe has now slapped that incredible game-winning value right out of your hand. Thanks for nothing, universe.
Second, Rice’s absence creates a ripple effect for the Chiefs’ pass catchers. Three receiver personnel sets mostly included Xavier Worthy, Justin Watson, and JuJu Smith-Schuster after Rice left Sunday. Worthy only drew four targets, but one of his three receptions was a haymaker from 54 yards:
Patrick Mahomes (6) to Xavier Worthy (3)
Kansas City Chiefs
54 yards
pic.twitter.com/C01ydg1wK9— NFL TD Videos (@NFLTDsVideos) September 29, 2024
Of perhaps more importance for fantasy, Rice’s absence seemed to awaken Travis Kelce in the short and intermediate game, and he shot up to nine targets, exceeding his previous high of five.
Third, the Chiefs have taken massive shots to the bow as they pursue a third consecutive Super Bowl victory. With Hollywood Brown already gone, Rice’s prolonged absence will certainly create a familiar squirmy discomfort for Patrick Mahomes’ fantasy managers, who will likely see an encore of the 2023 community hair pull. Also, the Chiefs’ offense return to a fragile, barely-there Underwhelming Machine has likely happened in just four short games (hey, they won last year anyway, but we can all admit it seemed tenuous right up until the end).
One significant difference, hopefully, is that Xavier Worthy is still a major upgrade to a different archetype than Rice—the platonic ideal of the old Marquez Valdes-Scantling role. Perhaps, if Worthy remains highly functional in his appearances, the Chiefs will still have that little something they were missing and so desperately needed a year ago.
Dontayvion Wicks’s Big Game: MATTERS
Wicks was a popular sleeper this summer. Among the reasons? He could have contingency value. And here we are.
Christian Watson went down like he had been struck by a thrown bowling pin in the occipital region while trying to make a catch Sunday. It turns out it was probably a high-ankle sprain caused by the high-low impact of the two defenders that collided into his lower half; makes more sense, really.
And so the woe continues for the oft-injured Watson – poor guy. And while he nurses yet another soft tissue injury, he will see Wicks step directly into his place. Wicks essentially never left the field after the injury and landed on 58 snaps. He went 5-78-2 without Watson on the field Sunday.
We never root for injuries; the narrowing of targets among the many talented WRs in Green Bay does make it easier to trust those who are left over. So, while Watson is out, Wicks should be in lineups.
Jayden Daniels Balling Out: MATTERS SO MUCH
For starters, how about the sweet relief Washington fans must be feeling? Does the chorus “Ding Dong, the Witch is Dead” come to mind? In the wake of the Daniel Snyder era, which snuck upon a once-proud franchise that often won championships, slid a surprise rear-naked choke on it, and held it captive for two decades, the Commanders have immediately found a pathway to relevance in no time at all upon his departure. Congrats to those who waited patiently and never hopped on another bandwagon out of pure shame.
Daniels made headlines by crossing some bizarre threshold of 82% completion percentage over his first four career games or yada yada, and that’s really neat-o and all (all due respect, it’s not the DiMaggio hit streak). What’s really cool for fantasy is that Daniels appears to be the magical combination of a remarkable rusher and remarkable passer.
Daniels is second in rushing among QBs behind Lamar Jackson, leading the league in scramble attempts (which is where the good stuff is, usually, because YPC is generally higher on scrambles than planned runs). And then, he’s obviously highly accurate with his rando completion percentage record; he has three TD passes and top-ten passing yardage through the first four games.
It’s hard to trust many, if any, QBs more than Daniels in fantasy right now, and he is fast approaching the tippy-top of the dynasty ranks at QB as well.
Christian Kirk Leading the Jags in Targets: DOESN’T MATTER INSOFAR AS RECLAIMING ALPHA STATUS IN JACKSONVILLE
Kirk has outpaced Brian Thomas, Jr. in targets and routes in 2024; coming into Week 4, Kirk was playing 86.3% from the slot, and his yards per route run at 1.14 were almost a full yard lower than Thomas at 2.10. Thomas. Thomas had more end zone looks, forced missed tackles, and produced a higher QB rating while targeted by a wide margin.
Sunday, Kirk shot up to twelve targets. Considering he was the highest Jags receiver at ADP, some may see this as a return to oughtness—a righting of the ship. It is likely nothing of the sort. Thomas outproduced Kirk in fantasy with a 6-86-1 line, which is becoming almost a norm for him. Thomas is on the WR2 spectrum; Kirk is a low-upside PPR receiver who you could hopefully bench for better options with higher-value touches.
Michael Pittman and Josh Downs’s 2024 Breakthrough Week: LIKELY DOESN’T MATTER
Pittman was 6-113-0, and Downs went 8-82-1 on Sunday, but of course, QB Anthony Richardson left early with a hip injury. Context is important; there is almost no opportunity cost tied to Downs, and he reigns supreme over most anything you could find lying around out there in free agency. Also, if Richardson misses more time, this is very encouraging stuff for both WRs. However, Sunday night, reports had already revealed that Richardson was probably expected to miss no time.
Perhaps the Colts’ effectiveness on offense Sunday against what was the best defense in the league by EPA per play allowed coming into Week 4 may trick you into believing the Colts might bench Richardson, who has been objectively horrible from a real-life football standpoint; I don’t think that’s going to happen. Flacco is quite old, and there is no future with him, while the Colts still barely know what they have in Richardson. Richardson was touted as a raw prospect, and that’s what he’s been. Why draft him if you aren’t willing to commit to development?
With Richardson destined to return to the starting lineup sooner rather than later, expect these passing game options to be relegated to what they’ve been.
Of course, the way Richardson plays may get him hurt again, so who knows?
Jake Ferguson’s Expected Points: MATTERS
The Cowboys have struggled to find a reliable option in the passing game behind CeeDee Lamb. So, here we have a team that is leading the league at 23.2 seconds to snap (after being among the fastest teams last year and under Kellen Moore before that) with the tenth-highest pass rate over expected, who has passed for 66% of their plays (2nd behind only the Raiders). They have only one incredibly defined pass-catcher. Beyond that, there is an aging past-his-prime speedster and a third-year WR from a small school just now hitting his stride. Underneath, it has been Ferguson.
Lamb and Ferguson are dead even with a 22% market share. No other Cowboys’ pass-catcher is above 13%. Ferguson ranks sixth in PPR per game and first in expected points per game. Expected points are the most predictive metric outside fantasy football’s primary stats (receptions, targets, yards, TDs). Ferguson also ranks high in targets, receptions, and yards; he also has excellent aDOT and weighted opportunity – all excellent predictors.
Ferguson is in the running to be the fantasy TE1 overall – no joke.
Everything that Happened in East Rutherford Sunday: DOESN’T MATTER, I THINK? (I HOPE?)
The Broncos’ upset of the Jets was incredibly ugly. It was played in a heavy rainstorm that accumulated 0.29 inches, which is a lot. Rain obviously makes it harder to catch or hold onto the ball, but it also makes it quite difficult to throw (and kick, as we learned yesterday, too). It can also affect cutting and changing directions on routes and even affect a receiver’s ability to track the ball in the air.
We don’t want to overstate it, but the disappearances of Aaron Rodgers, Breece Hall, and Garrett Wilson conveniently overlap with these dreadful conditions. Perhaps we give them a pass for that. Perhaps we give them one because we hope the reason isn’t something else far more damning. Live in denial with me, and don’t mention that Mike Williams and Braelon Allen seemed to have had less difficulty playing in the same conditions.
Sam Darnold: MATTERS
I know. I’m the last one to get here, but I’m here. Every step of the way with the Darnold thing in Minnesota, I’ve remained skeptical. We should remember that before Zach Wilson, there was Darnold. Darnold was not only horrible from the standpoint that the Jets couldn’t win, he “saw ghosts,” and he was a turnover machine; this guy’s underlying metrics were some of the worst we’d ever seen. I truly didn’t think turning someone so broken and bad into a worthwhile starting QB was possible, even for Kevin O’Connell.
I easily denied it through the first two weeks; I had to force it after Week 3, but I did it anyway. And now, I can no longer do it. Sam Darnold is playing well, and this is real. In low volume, he’s been radically efficient; then again, we’ve seen this efficiency in this system before. This is the same system that made Brock Purdy a 90 FPOE guy and Tua Tagovailoa the NFL’s top yardage earner. It can happen to Darnold, too.
Even as he appears to be a screaming regression candidate, we should remember that this system keeps people above the base rates. Darnold—to his credit—plays as if he knows exactly what to do all the time and is in command of every moment.
Chase Brown’s Performance Sunday: PROBABLY MATTERS
Zack Moss continues to gain more snaps and opportunities, but each week, the weight of his committee with Brown feels more difficult to explain. This week, Moss only got one added opportunity in the passing game. They split the carries, and Brown took the goal line work. Brown went 15-80-2 on the ground, while Moss went 15-51-0. Moss will likely continue to get most of the work in obvious passing downs because Brown is such a zero in pass protection, but it feels like a takeover is underway when it comes to taking handoffs.
Then again, it felt like this in Chicago last week, too.
The Browns’ Everything: MATTERS, DOESN’T MATTER . . . DOES IT MATTER IF IT MATTERS?
Okay, let’s start here. Deshaun Watson is almost definitely not the player he used to be, nor will he ever be (karmic justice?); I’m here to tell you, he’s not the only problem.
The Browns are PFF’s second-worst offense, in front of only the Broncos, who a rookie guides – the sixth QB taken in the draft – and have $90 million in dead money from one player. PFF grades their pass blocking as the second-worst as well; it would undoubtedly be worse if not for the Rams missing almost their entire line, and now, the Browns are piling up injuries up front as well. Receiving? Dead last. Jerry Jeudy has outplayed Amari Cooper thus far; Cooper has been abysmal. The tertiary weapons have been dreadful, especially without David Njoku, who is injured.
The Browns have taken the most sacks in the league (only three of 16 are credited to Watson, by the way), have the third-lowest adjusted yards per attempt, the seventh-worst YAC %, the seventh-lowest percentage of catchable passes, the 12th-highest rate of turnover-worthy throws, the second-highest percentage of dropped passes, the second-most pressures, and the highest pressure rate and pressure rate over expected in the league. That is a complete failure of every component of the passing game.
If you think Jameis Winston will fix it, I have news for you: probably not. The question is: why won’t Kevin Stefanski? The Browns’ running game is at least passable, yet Cleveland continues to run the 3rd-highest pass rate over expected. And they still try to work downfield, probably far too often.