The Path to a WR1 Season: Ladd McConkey (Fantasy Football)

The Chargers have been one of the most talked-about teams within the fantasy community this century, and that’s not an overstatement. It’s hard to imagine a Fantasy Mt. Rushmore without LaDanian Tomlinson (and Antonio Gates, if we are looking at things positionally). The team has been one of the more successful franchises at “changing the guard,” as they transitioned from eventual Hall-of-Fame QB Philip Rivers to perennial Pro Bowler Justin Herbert.

Their RB room has progressed from fantasy stars Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler to Omarion Hampton. They spent a couple of early-round draft picks on Quentin Johnston (2023 1st round) and Ladd McConkey (2024 2nd round) to try to manage the end of Keenan Allen’s prolific career. Despite a gaffe-riddled rookie year, QJ showed marginal development in his second season, and Ladd McConkey looked like one of the steals of the draft in 2024. Then Allen, who departed for a one-year sabbatical in Chicago in 2024, returned to Los Angeles for his swan song and mucked the whole thing up! Or did he? The narrative in the fantasy football community has been that Keenan Allen NERFed Ladd McConkey‘s 2025 numbers, but further analysis shows there were several other factors at play (that’s called a teaser, people!).

As of this writing, it seems like Allen (age 450 34) is officially done playing in the NFL, so the big question surrounds what the target share will look like in Los Angeles in 2026. Will Johnston continue to develop? Will Tre Harris or KeAndre Lambert-Smith take a second-year leap and command more target share? Will Oronde Gadsden or 2026 offseason acquisition, David Njoku, be featured in the passing game? What impact will new Offensive Coordinator Mike McDaniel have on this offense? And most importantly (for this article, at least), can McConkey return to his 2024 form, or was his 2025 regression a more ominous threat to his career prospects?

Editor’s Note: This profile is part of our annual Path to a Fantasy WR1 Season series. For our methodology and an outline of the process, make sure you read the 2026 Path to WR1 Series Primer. Find out the full statistical projections for the Footballers Consensus WR1s in the Ultimate Draft Kit.

2025 Season Recap

After finishing his rookie campaign as WR12, we were excited to see McConkey continue to develop and ascend the dynasty WR ranks in 2025. His 2025 ADP hovered between late 2nd round and early 3rd round (WR11-13 range). But things quickly went off the rails. After a decent Week 1 showing, with nine targets and a 6/74 stat line, McConkey strung together three straight weeks of WR50+ performances. He scored 5 TDs over the middle eight games of the season, before completely disappearing in the fantasy playoffs. Most concerning was that McConkey had six or fewer targets in every game after Week 8.

The Path for 2026

What stands out to you about this table? I have to admit that I was quite surprised to see that McConkey had actually increased his snap share in 2025 and that he had only six fewer targets in 2025 than he did in 2024. The narrative all season and this offseason was that Keenan Allen was stealing snaps and targets from Ladd, and that’s not really true. McConkey’s target share did drop three percentage points, which is substantial, but his total opportunities were nearly identical year-over-year.

Unlock Exclusive Tools + Bonus Episode

Join the FootClan

Ladd’s YPC dropped by 2 yards, from 14 to 12, which accounts for roughly 130 receiving yards. And he had one less TD in 2025 (6) than in 2024 (7). But the stat that speaks to me most in his chart is his Catch Percentage. McConkey’s CTCH% dropped from 73% to 62% year-over-year, and that drop, combined with a lower YPC, made a substantial difference in his performance.

Much of this can be attributed to the offensive line injuries and subsequent pocket pressure that QB Justin Herbert faced much of the season. Herbert was pressured on 45% of McConkey’s targets, and his catchable targets dropped by 10 percentage points. Bringing back a fully healthy offensive line and drafting four additional linemen (including the #1 ranked Center in the class) should make a big difference for this offensive unit. As will the healthy return of standout RB Omarion Hampton.

Don’t hold the 2025 OL injuries against the Chargers’ skill players…@AndrewErickson_ is buying Ladd McConkey in dynasty pic.twitter.com/NvF9d7czC5

— FantasyPros (@FantasyPros) May 30, 2026

Target Share

The number most impacted by the return of Keenan Allen and the addition of three new pass-catchers via the 2025 draft seemed to be McConkey’s target share. He dropped three points, from 24.5% in 2024 to 21.3% in 2025. We don’t like to see that number go backwards, but there are many factors contributing to the decline.

ESPN’s Mike Clay has McConkey projected at 122 targets (22.2% target share) and 80 receptions. This reception number is nearly identical to the aggregate projection of The Ballers (79.33 receptions), so we’ll use these numbers in our case.

Unlock Exclusive Tools + Bonus Episode

Join the FootClan

aDOT and Yards

McConkey’s aDOT was unchanged from 2024 to 2025 and sits at 9.9 YPT. Coincidentally, Ladd increased both his deep ball targets and red zone targets from 9 to 14 from 2024 to 2025, indicating he is being targeted all over the field. This is good news.

Ladd’s yardage took a significant drop in 2025, but much of that is attributable to the catch percentage and YPC numbers highlighted above. Clay’s projections are for 1,033 yards and 12.9 YPC, numbers between Ladd’s 2024 and 2025 output.

In 2025, Ladd averaged 4.7 YAC per reception, good for 23rd-best among WRs. Ladd is still a weapon with the ball in his hands. His YAC per reception was 4.6 yards in 2024. With similar YAC/R but a decrease in YPC from 14 to 12, you can see that Ladd was catching the ball two yards closer to the line of scrimmage in 2025, once again attributable to the fact that Herbert was facing greater pressure numbers. With adequate blocking, more creative play-calling, and a greater threat in the run game (the Chargers also brought FB Alec Ingold over from the Dolphins), the passing game should look much improved in 2025.

TDs

McConkey has 7 and 6 TDs in his first two seasons, respectively. But I find it interesting that his deep ball targets and target share, and his red zone targets and target share all increased from 2024 to 2025. These are valuable opportunities that could lead to an impactful increase in the TD department. He’s projected for 6 TDs in 2026, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see him score 8+ TDs.

Conclusion

Things are looking up in Los Angeles this season, and this could be the year that the Chargers finally make a respectable run. If they do so, it will be because all the things that went wrong in 2025 have been addressed: play calling gets a boost with new OC Mike McDaniel; the run game gets back on track with improved blocking and the addition of a power-blocking FB and TE; and Justin Herbert gets adequate time to dissect defenses with his once-lethal accuracy. Ultimately, health will determine how far this team goes.

For Ladd McConkey, I’m optimistic for a return to 2024 form and maybe even more. If his catchable target rate returns to 2024 levels, and if his target share bumps back up a few percentage points, his receptions, yards, and TDs will all benefit. The Ballers’ own Jason Moore agrees with me. His projections are for 87 receptions, 1,040 yards, and 8 TDs. That’s good for 195.5 half-PPR fantasy points, which would have been good for WR8 in 2025.

Unlock Exclusive Tools + Bonus Episode

Join the FootClan