The Path to a WR1 Fantasy Football Season: Zay Flowers

Editor’s Note: This profile is part of our annual Path to a Fantasy WR1 series. For our methodology and an outline of the process, make sure you read the 2024 Path to WR1 Series Primer.

The Baltimore Ravens have not been a hotbed for massive wide receiver seasons historically. In fact, they haven’t had a top-10 WR in half-PPR scoring formats since their first year as a franchise in 1996, when someone called Michael Jackson (not that Michael Jackson) went for 76 rec, 1,201 yards, and 14 TDs. In the Lamar Jackson era (since 2018), their best finisher at the position was Hollywood Brown who finished as the WR24 in 2021. So why, you ask, is this the year that it all comes together? The answer is that it probably isn’t. But this is a series about hope, so if you’re a Zay Flowers truther like me and you just need a reason to believe, read on.

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2023 Season Recap

Zay Flowers was drafted 22nd overall by the Baltimore Ravens in the 2023 NFL Draft, and as a result, there was plenty of hype around him entering last season. As a rookie, he finished with 77 receptions for 858 yards and 5 TDs, good for WR30 in half-PPR. Notably, five of Flowers’ six total touchdowns came over the last five games of the year. He also got involved in the postseason, posting nine catches for 156 yards and a touchdown during Baltimore’s two-game postseason run. Over this seven-game stretch, Flowers averaged 14.2 fantasy points per game after averaging just 8.5 per game over his first 11 games. This hot streak was in part due to the red zone usage bump, but his yards per reception also increased from 11.1 to 12.9 over that stretch. It’s not a huge sample size, but he definitely seemed to be a more important part of the game plan late last year.

All in all, it was an impressive debut for Flowers, who finds himself among some pretty solid company in terms of production as a rookie: 

Most receptions by a rookie WR all-time:

Of these players, Jarvis Landry is probably the closest comparison in terms of play style and upside. Landry’s rookie line of 84 rec, 758 yards, and five TDs mirrored Flowers’ almost perfectly. In case you were wondering what Landry did in his second season…he went for 110 rec, 1,157 yards, and four TDs, finishing as WR12.

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The Path for 2024

Aside from the departure of journeyman wideout Odell Beckham Jr., the Ravens are returning nearly the same pass-catching corps from last season. So what needs to change this year if Flowers is going to make the jump from WR30 into the top 12? Let’s do some projecting.

Target Share

The Ballers often reference target share in terms of slices of pie. The more passes an offense attempts, the larger the pie, and the more targets a player receives in said offense, the larger their slice. In Flowers’ case, he’s eating from one of the smallest pies in the league. Lamar Jackson attempted a career-high 457 passes last year, but the Ravens still finished with the third-fewest passing attempts in the NFL, ahead of only the San Francisco 49ers and the Tennessee Titans. We thought the transition to Todd Monken as offensive coordinator could lead to a more pass-heavy approach for this offense, but that simply wasn’t the case last season. Baltimore instead found success on the ground and playing defense. Their defense allowed just 280 points, the fewest in the league, which allowed them to consistently build large leads and finish with the league’s second-best point differential at +203. If Baltimore finds themselves in more close games and shootouts this year, the team’s passing attempts number could climb to new heights…or maybe even approach league-average.

The good news is that Zay Flowers managed to carve out a significant role in this offense in his first season. His target share of 24.0% was second amongst all rookies behind only Puka Nacua of the Los Angeles Rams. With Flowers entering this season as the WR1 on Baltimore’s depth chart, it seems reasonable to assume that he would only build on that target share in Year 2. 

Average Depth of Target

This is the area where we can expect the most improvement for Flowers in Year 2. It was clear that the game plan for Flowers last season was to get him the ball near the line of scrimmage and let him use his run-after-the-catch ability. These targets are helpful for fantasy, but they’re not nearly as valuable as downfield targets in the intermediate and deep zones of the field. Flowers’ average depth of target (aDOT) of 8.4 yards was 81st in the league among pass catchers and is a number that should certainly improve in 2024. Flowers is a burner who was known for his big-play ability at Boston College, averaging 15.3 yards per reception in his time there. It seemed like the Ravens were beginning to figure out how to utilize him toward the end of last season, leading to the increase in output I mentioned above, showcased in big plays like this:

SEVENTY-FIVE YARD TOUCHDOWN FOR ZAY FLOWERS!!!!!

Tune in on CBS! pic.twitter.com/1rxQdgbKGf

— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) December 31, 2023

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Touchdowns

Of course, any player can benefit from finding pay-dirt more often, but in Flowers’ case, it seems like a reasonable expectation, especially given the hot streak he went on down the stretch last year. It’s the least sticky of all the stats, but he’s proven to have a nose for the end zone during his collegiate career and for stretches as a pro. With the addition of Derrick Henry and the return of Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews, the Ravens offense should continue to be effective in 2024. Look for them to get Flowers involved more often in the red zone this season.

Conclusion

We shouldn’t expect drastic changes to the Ravens’ offensive approach or Flowers’ usage, but with a slightly larger pie (say 550 attempts) and a slightly higher target percentage (say 25%) we can project Flowers somewhere in the 140 target range this season. With an aDOT closer to 10.0 yards per target in 2024, expect Zay’s yards per catch to increase to somewhere around the 13.0 mark. Let’s assume his catch rate declines slightly with the added depth of target, from 71% down to 65%. Finally, the slight uptick in red zone usage leads to seven receiving touchdowns.

These increases in usage and efficiency add up to a projected 2024 receiving line of 91 receptions for 1,183 yards and seven touchdowns. Add in his rushing stats from last year (56 yards and a touchdown) and it leaves him with 217.4 projected half-PPR fantasy points, which would have ranked as the WR11 in 2023. There’s no doubt that this is projecting him at his ceiling, but a player with his talent is capable of ceiling outcomes when things break the right way. If the Ravens find themselves in more passing situations this season, their young stud WR should be the one to benefit.