The Path to a WR1 Fantasy Football Season: Terry McLaurin

Editor’s Note: This profile is part of our annual Path to a Fantasy WR1 series. For our methodology and an outline of the process, make sure you read the 2024 Path to WR1 Series Primer.

The most undervalued receiver in fantasy football right now is Terry McLaurin. Yes, Scary Terry is set to break into WR1 territory this season. Despite being hindered by a rotating cast of subpar quarterbacks, McLaurin is one of just four receivers to surpass 75 receptions and 1,000 yards in each of the past four seasons. The other receivers on that list? Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, and Tyreek Hill.

WRs who have at least 75 receptions & 1,000 receiving yards in each of their last four seasons ⬇️

Davante Adams
Stefon Diggs
Tyreek Hill
Terry McLaurin pic.twitter.com/jHeP85IPNw

— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) July 4, 2024

Now, insert former LSU QB Jayden Daniels, the overall second pick in the NFL draft and Heisman winner, along with a new coaching staff featuring Head Coach Dan Quinn and Offensive Coordinator Kliff Kingsbury. McLaurin is now in potentially the best situation of his career. Will that be enough to make him a WR1 in fantasy football? Let’s dive in.

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Find out the full statistical projections for the Footballers Consensus WR1s in the Ultimate Draft Kit.

2023 Season Recap

McLaurin has delivered strong performances despite playing with now-Seahawks backup QB Sam Howell and soon-to-be Patriots backup Jacoby Brissett. Think that’s tough? Before them, it was Taylor Heinicke, Kyle Allen, Carson Wentz, and Colt McCoy. Since joining the league, McLaurin has endured eleven total QB changes. His impressive statistics, achieved under less-than-ideal circumstances, are a testament to his exceptional skill. McLaurin has never let subpar QB play be an excuse.

Terry McLaurin recorded 79 catches for 1,002 yards and four touchdowns last season, with 23 of those catches going for over 20 yards. He ranked eighth in the league in deep targets and 13th in air yards, showcasing his big-play ability. McLaurin accomplished this with Sam Howell as the primary quarterback for most of the season. According to Player Profiler, Sam Howell ranked first in interceptable passes, 32nd in red zone accuracy, and 27th in passer rating last year. Howell’s passer rating (80.1) was behind Kenny Pickett (81.4), Tommy Devito (89.2), and Drew Lock (81.2). McLaurin has grown accustomed to not having a reliable passer.

Last season, with Sam Howell at quarterback, McLaurin finished as the WR42 in points per game. Despite Howell’s numerous attempts, he ranked 32nd in deep ball completion percentage, recorded a career-low 7.6 yards per target, his second-lowest touchdown rate at 3%, and his lowest catch rate at 59.8%.

The Path for 2024

The Commanders have implemented major changes to their coaching staff this offseason. They replaced Ron Rivera with Dan Quinn as head coach and brought in Kliff Kingsbury as offensive coordinator. Kingsbury is notable for developing quarterbacks like Caleb Williams and Patrick Mahomes and for leading the Arizona Cardinals to their only double-digit win season and playoff trip since 2015 as head coach. According to Draft Sharks, “Kingsbury deploys fast-paced attacks, with three of his four offenses finishing in the top 3 in pace and offensive plays. His units ranked 1st, 6th, 8th, and 6th in total WR target share.” Volume shouldn’t be an issue for McLaurin.

Target Share

Curtis Samuel finished as the WR2 for the team, leaving 91 targets vacated as he was traded to the Buffalo Bills this offseason. The Commanders drafted WR Luke McCaffrey in the third round, a raw talent who transitioned from QB to WR only recently and doesn’t have as much experience as a WR.

After losing Antonio Gibson in free agency, Austin Ekeler joins the Commanders on a two-year deal with $4.2 million guaranteed, making this a likely one-year experiment in Washington. Looking at the efficiency from last year, his days of elite production seem behind him. Last year saw a huge dip not only in rushing production but also in receptions. The Commanders also moved TE Logan Thomas and reunited Zach Ertz with his former OC after signing him. They drafted Ben Sinnott in the second round, a raw prospect who has never seen a lot of volume in college and will need time to develop in the NFL.

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Washington has consistently relied on McLaurin to carry the passing game, as he has regularly held a target share near 25% each year with the team. With the vacated targets from Curtis Samuel and no significant splash in free agency or the draft to secure a bona fide WR2, I predict Terry to have more receptions and yards in 2024 than in any year prior. The targets should be better, the offense should have fewer turnovers, and the pairing of Daniels with McLaurin’s big-play ability feels like the perfect recipe for a true breakout. You can read more about the Commanders’ vacated targets and open opportunities by Javier Manzanera here.

Quarterback Upgrade 

The most significant change for the Commanders heading into 2024 is at quarterback. Heisman winner Jayden Daniels, the second overall draft pick, is by far the best prospect McLaurin has had to work with going into a season. Daniels, who turns 24 in December, brings extensive experience with 55 starts. He’s a top-tier athlete capable of extending plays and recorded the highest pass efficiency rating (208.0) of all time in a college season. Last year he produced over 1,500 yards and 14 touchdowns for Malik Nabers and over 1,000 yards and 17 touchdowns for Brian Thomas Jr. He was the fourth most productive deep ball QB in college last year and was known for consistently hitting the deep ball on the perimeter.

Wrote some words detailing recent dynasty history to give a range of outcomes & comps for No. 2 pick Jayden Daniels

High-End: 85% of a QB who broke football

Median: Video game QB where hype > fantasy points

Low-End: [names redacted based on fear]https://t.co/iTytqZVqeF

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— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) May 15, 2024

Touchdowns

Since scoring seven times as a rookie, McLaurin’s TD counts have been four, five, five, and four. It’s a lack of scoring that’s kept him from a fantasy WR1 breakout. We’re not counting on a scoring surge this fall, but we’re intrigued by the arrival of Jayden Daniels. McLaurin saw only eight end zone targets over 18 games last season. Touchdowns are the quickest way to rack up fantasy points and also one of the more difficult stats to project, but with a better QB at the helm, McLaurin should see positive TD regression. As the clear number-one option in Washington, a double-digit touchdown season is within the realm of possibility.

Conclusion

Terry McLaurin is absolutely primed to break into WR1 territory this season. McLaurin has consistently delivered remarkable production despite his previous struggles with a revolving door of quarterbacks. With a new and improved offensive setup featuring Head Coach Dan Quinn, Offensive Coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, and talented rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, McLaurin is unquestionably in the best situation of his career. His potential for increased targets, better-quality passes, and overall offensive efficiency unequivocally set the stage for a breakout year. There is no doubt that McLaurin will surpass his previous records in receptions and yards, making him an invaluable asset in your fantasy football lineup.