The Path to a WR1 Fantasy Football Season: Garrett Wilson (Fantasy Football)
Garrett Wilson is off to a tremendous start in his NFL career, which includes three straight 1,000-yard receiving seasons, increased reception totals each year, and commanding a dominant 27% target share. You can see his full career stats in the table below.
| Season | Targets | Target Share | Receptions | Yards | Yards/Rec | aDOT | Yards/RR | TDs |
| 2022 | 147 | 25% | 83 | 1,103 | 13.3 | 11.0 | 1.69 | 4 |
| 2023 | 168 | 30% | 95 | 1,042 | 11.0 | 10.6 | 1.55 | 3 |
| 2024 | 154 | 27% | 101 | 1,104 | 10.9 | 9.4 | 1.85 | 7 |
| Average | 156.3 | 27% | 93.0 | 1,083 | 11.7 | 10.3 | 1.70 | 4.7 |
He compiled these numbers catching passes from the following eight QBs over three seasons.
- Zach Wilson
- Mike White
- Joe Flacco
- Chris Streveler
- Trevor Siemian
- Tim Boyle
- Aaron Rodgers
- Tyrod Taylor
Another signal caller will be added to that list in 2025, as Justin Fields takes the reins as the starting QB for the New York Jets. Wilson currently has an average draft position (ADP) of WR16 and is positioned the same as WR16 in The Ballers’ consensus rankings. So, how could he break through and become a WR1 in 2025? Let me explain.
Editor’s Note: This profile is part of our annual Path to a Fantasy WR1 Season series. For our methodology and an outline of the process, make sure you read the 2025 Path to WR1 Series Primer. Find out the full statistical projections for the Footballers Consensus WR1s in the Ultimate Draft Kit.
2024 Season Recap
Wilson had the most consistent QB play of his career in 2024, thanks to Aaron Rodgers staying healthy and attempting 584 passes, the second most in the league. It led to him posting career highs in receptions (101), yards (1,104), and TDs (7). He finished as the WR9 overall in fantasy football.
However, it was an inconsistent journey for Wilson managers in 2024. He failed to crack the top 24 fantasy scorers at the position a single time over the first four weeks of the season, then did so for five consecutive weeks. That streak culminated with his best performance of the season against the Texans, where he caught nine passes for 90 yards and two TDs. He would then only crack the top 24 at the position twice over the final eight weeks of the season. What’s worse, he was outside of the top 40 in five games during that final stretch.
It needs to be noted that a major reason for Wilson’s decline was the arrival of Davante Adams in Week 7. From that point on, Adams saw a dominant 31% target share from his longtime teammate, Aaron Rodgers. Wilson’s target share dropped from 30% to 23%, which is still respectable, but it was clear that he took a backseat to Adams in the target pecking order.
The Path for 2025
Not only are Rodgers and Adams going to new homes in 2025, but the Jets also have a new coaching staff leading the team. Former Detroit defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has been named head coach, and he brought Tanner Engstrand, previously the Lions’ pass game coordinator, along with him as offensive coordinator. Let’s explore how this revamped situation in New York could lead to a WR1 season for Garrett Wilson.
Target Share
Targets have never been a problem for Wilson. He has accumulated 469 targets over his first three seasons, the second most all-time to start a career, trailing only Justin Jefferson. He has never seen his target share dip below 25% for a full season, which is generally recognized as a threshold that signifies a target hog.
The Jets’ WR room is highly questionable behind Wilson. They brought in veteran journeyman Josh Reynolds, who has never seen above a 20% target share and saw his career high of 81 targets back in 2020. Alan Lazard is also still on the roster, who saw his career-high 21% target share in 2022, his final season with Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. Last year’s third-round pick, Malachi Corley, saw just six targets as a rookie. The only pass catchers the Jets added in the draft were TE Mason Taylor in the second round and wideout Arian Smith on day three in the fourth round.
It’s safe to say that Wilson will be projected to lead the Jets in targets, and he may end up leading the entire league. Topping a 30% target share is not out of the question.
Receptions and Catch Rate
As I mentioned in the opening paragraph, Wilson has increased his reception total in each of his three NFL seasons. The increase in 2024 was in part due to his career-high 65.6% catch rate, which coincided with his season of catching passes from Aaron Rodgers.
Nobody will argue that Justin Fields has the passing accuracy of Rodgers, but much like Wilson, he has improved his completion percentage in each season as a pro, up to 65.8% last year in Pittsburgh. Fields was also the QB in Chicago when DJ Moore finished as the WR6 overall in 2023. During that season, Moore had a 71% catch rate with the Bears. That kind of season is within the range of outcomes, with Wilson catching passes from Fields, who he also caught passes from for two years in college at Ohio State.
Yards and aDOT
Wilson has topped 1,000 receiving yards every season of his career, but his highest total in three seasons is just 1,104. His yards/rec has gone down each season, coinciding with his lower average depth of target (aDOT) each season.
It’s important to once again think about who is throwing Wilson the ball. Last season, it was Aaron Rodgers, who tied his career-low with a 7.3-yard aDOT. Justin Fields, who will be delivering the passes in 2025, had a 7.8-yard aDOT in Pittsburgh last season but an 8.8-yard aDOT with the Bears in 2023, which was also DJ Moore’s best fantasy season.
Wilson feels about as safe as it gets when projecting a 1,000-yard receiving season, and if his yards/rec and aDOT bounce back, he could easily rack up 1,200+ yards in 2025.
TDs
Racking up TDs is the best way to break into the elite top tier of fantasy receivers. Wilson caught seven last season, matching the total over his first two seasons combined. That’s a good sign. However, TDs are also very dependent on the QB throwing them, and that could be a bad sign for Wilson.
Justin Fields will be the starting QB for the Jets in 2025, and the betting markets currently have his passing TD line set at over/under around 14.5, depending on where you look. That is the lowest in the league. In that case, Wilson would need to catch about half of Fields’ TD passes to match his seven from last season. That isn’t impossible, but it would still be underwhelming.
So can Fields hit the over in passing TDs? His 17-game average over three seasons is 15, pretty much exactly where the line is set. In his last two seasons with the Bears, however, his 17-game pace was 20 TDs. That isn’t setting the world on fire, but it would boost Wilson’s chances of snagging double-digit TDs. Back when Wilson and Fields played together at Ohio State, Fields threw 63 TDs in over 22 games. Wilson only caught 11 of them, but he was sharing the field with Chris Olave, Jameson Williams, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He certainly does not have that type of target competition in New York.
Fields is certainly familiar enough with throwing TDs, but it will likely come down to the style of offense the new Jets’ regime implements. With a defensive-minded head coach, Aaron Glenn, and a talented young backfield that includes Breece Hall and Braelon Allen, not to mention Fields’ propensity to take off himself, they will likely be inclined to control the ball on the ground and play solid defense. However, with Vegas only projecting them to win 5.5 games, they may be forced into throwing the ball more often than they plan.
All in all, TDs are both the most important stat for a breakout fantasy season and the most difficult to project, especially given all of the unknowns in Garrett Wilson‘s current team environment.
Conclusion
Garrett Wilson has been a reliable fantasy producer in each of his first three NFL seasons. He has never missed a game due to injury, compiled over 1,000 yards each season, and finished WR9 overall last season. Yet he still hasn’t broken out, which is reflected in both his Ballers’ ranking and his current ADP of WR16, going off draft boards in the third round. That feels like drafting him at his floor, given his proven consistency. In a known high-powered offense with a prolific QB, he would be viewed much differently. If Justin Fields can unlock him the way he did with DJ Moore in 2023, Garrett Wilson has a clear path to being a WR1 in 2025.