The Path to a WR1 Fantasy Football Season: Calvin Ridley
Editor’s Note: This profile is part of our annual Path to a Fantasy WR1 series. For our methodology and an outline of the process, make sure you read the 2024 Path to WR1 Series Primer.
Follow the money. That’s what the Tennessee Titans told us after signing Calvin Ridley to a four-year deal worth $92 million in the offseason.
The Titans paid Ridley like a top wide receiver, he’s been a WR1 in the past, and he’s coming off a near-WR1 season (he finished as the WR17) after returning to the NFL after a nearly two-year absence. Despite his solid production last year, fantasy football managers seem to be down on Ridley going into this season. It could be because of the situation in Tennessee, which hasn’t been ideal for wideouts the last couple of seasons.
But there is hope for the Titans’ offense and for Ridley himself to reach the coveted WR1 mountaintop once again.
Find out the full statistical projections for the Footballers Consensus WR1s in the Ultimate Draft Kit.
2023 Season Recap
After close to two years away from the football field, on a new team in Jacksonville, and in a new system, there was a justifiable reason to believe Ridley would need time to get reacclimated and that he’d improve as the season progressed.
The opposite happened.
Ridley scored the initial touchdown of Jacksonville’s 2023 season and finished his first game as a Jaguar with eight catches on 11 targets for 101 yards and a score. But his second and third games were duds, just five catches for 72 yards combined, followed by WR18 and WR9 finishes in Weeks 4 and 5, respectively.
The up-and-down trend defined Ridley’s season. In some games, he was lights out, like Week 11 when he finished as the WR1 with seven receptions for 103 yards and two touchdowns. And some games he disappeared, like his one five-yard catch performance in Week 7.
Ridley finished as the WR17 with over 1,000 yards receiving and eight touchdowns, but he had a C consistency rating. He was a WR1 in 35.3% of his games, but never had a WR2 finish. He ended up as a WR4 or worse in 52.9% of his games.
All in all, Ridley’s return to football could be best described as productive, but wildly inconsistent.
The Path for 2024
The Titans clearly believe Ridley is still a bonafide alpha wideout, evidenced by the contract he signed at the onset of the offseason. While the 29-year-old WR was heavily involved in Jacksonville’s passing game last year, it seemed like he and Trevor Lawrence were never on the same page. Now he starts over as the main target for second-year gunslinger Will Levis, who showed flashes last season but is still raw and unproven. Also entering the picture is Head Coach Brian Callahan, who spent the last four seasons as the offensive coordinator for the Cincinnati Bengals. With new leadership in charge, along with complimentary pieces like DeAndre Hopkins, Tyler Boyd, and Tony Pollard, plus a revamped O-line, the Titans’ offense has potential bursting at the seams with Ridley at the forefront.
Target Share
In fantasy football, targets are king, and Ridley had a decent 22.4% target share in Jacksonville last season. He saw 136 targets, tied with Mike Evans for 15th among wideouts. More importantly, he saw a league-leading 25 end zone targets, five more than second-place CeeDee Lamb. Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to take advantage of those golden opportunities. The bright side is that those red zone targets should remain intact in Tennessee. Nick Holz has arrived as the new OC with the Titans and he’s familiar with Ridley, whom he spent last year in Jacksonville with as the passing game coordinator.
The Titans were at the bottom of the league when it came to total passing attempts in 2023, but those numbers went up significantly after Levis took over for Ryan Tannehill halfway through the season. And consider the departure of workhorse running back Derrick Henry plus the arrival of Callahan, who helped orchestrate a pass-heavy offense in Cincinnati. All signs are pointing to more passing attempts for Levis, meaning more targets for Ridley.
The variable in this equation is Hopkins, who has been one of the most impactful WRs over the last decade. Even in his 11th season and his first with Tennessee, Hopkins demanded a near 30% target share and caught 75 passes for 1,057 yards and seven touchdowns. The next four Tennessee wide receivers on the depth chart saw a 27% target share combined.
Ridley is going to soak up a huge chunk of the targets that went to Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Chris Moore, but Hopkins is still going to get his and Boyd will also be involved. The Titans need to drastically increase their pass attempts, which should happen under Callahan, and Ridley needs to see at the very least a 20% target share. The uptick in passing attempts plus consistent red zone opportunities can get Ridley over the hump.
Receptions & Catch Rate
There is no sugarcoating it, Ridley’s catch rate was abysmal last season. Was it his disconnect with Lawrence? Maybe. Was it the rust that accumulated over two years without playing? More likely. Whatever the reason was, Ridley had a handful of egregious misses and drops that were painful to watch. He caught just 55.9% of his targets and had six “official” drops, though it felt like way more.
The good news is that his drop rate went down as the season progressed. He had just one drop over the last five games of the season, speaking more to the shaking off the rust theory.
The bad news is that catch rate has never really been a friendly statistic for Ridley. When he finished as the WR4 in 2020, he had a 62.9% catch rate and six drops, catching just 90 passes. Compare that to Stefon Diggs, who finished one spot ahead of him that year but totaled 127 receptions.
Ridley also had double-digit drops in his rookie campaign.
Additionally, for the exceptional arm strength that Levis possesses, accuracy isn’t really his forte. Combine that with Ridley’s tendency for drops, the veteran WR will need to rely more on the amount of targets and touchdowns. Racking up receptions has never been his game.
Outliers aren’t ideal, but there are always a handful every season, and Ridley certainly fits that mold.
Yards & aDOT
One of Ridley’s greatest strengths is his versatility. He is lethal in the short game, he’s successful in designed screens, and he’s also got big-play ability. With the exception of his shortened 2021 season, his lowest yards per reception number (12.8) came in his rookie year. He averaged 13.4 yards/rec last year in Jacksonville. His 13.2 average depth of target (aDOT) ranked 17th among WRs who saw a minimum of 50 targets.
He also ranked eighth in total air yards and 15th in total 20+ yard plays.
Those numbers are solid already, but could and should go up in the Titans’ reconstructed offense.
Touchdowns
Red zone looks and multi-touchdown games are where Ridley truly excels. Excluding the 2021 season where he played just five games, Ridley has scored no fewer than seven touchdowns in a season. Even to start that 2021 campaign he had 14 red zone targets in just five games.
| Year | Games | RZ Targets | RZ TDs | Total TDs |
| 2018 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 10 |
| 2019 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 7 |
| 2020 | 15 | 26 | 7 | 9 |
| 2021 | 5 | 14 | 2 | 2 |
| 2023 | 17 | 25 | 6 | 8 |
As the Ballers have said over the years, touchdowns are not a sticky stat. But some players have a track record of scoring that at the very least can give fantasy managers a vote of confidence in their ability to find the end zone. Ridley is one of those players who has a history of being targeted in the red zone and compiling touchdowns.
Conclusion
There are certainly obstacles in Ridley’s way to becoming a top-12 WR, but if you brush aside the dirt on the ground, the path will start to materialize.
He’s on a new team that is forming a new identity – moving away from the days of the defensive-minded and run-oriented Mike Vrabel to a more pass-happy offense with Callahan calling the shots.
Despite the question marks surrounding Levis, one thing is certain, he is going to air out the ball. Ridley is destined to see a ton of opportunities.
And as Andy has pointed out this offseason, Ridley is a considerable value being drafted outside the top 30 of WRs. He is Andy’s early breakout candidate because, at his current ADP, it won’t cost you much for a chance to hit the jackpot, as he predicted with Mike Evans last year.
At first glance it may seem like Ridley won’t be able to reach the WR pinnacle again. But as you dig deeper into the new offense formulating in Tennessee, a contract that says he’s the guy, a young QB with a cannon of an arm, and a history of scoring touchdowns, you’re inclined to do a double take. Add in his athleticism, route-running ability, and his proven track record of being a WR1, the path starts to become clear.