The Fantasy Footballers’ WR Rankings Countdown: Top 10
The Ballers are continuing their parade through their top-20 WRs ahead of 2023. Andy, Mike, and Jason’s WRs 11-20 were broken down earlier this week to help you narrow down who you’ll be selecting come draft day!
This is a summary of the Fantasy Footballers’ recent WR Rankings countdown.
WR10 – Garrett Wilson (NYJ)
ADP 2.08 / WR10
Andy- WR11 / Jason- WR9 / Mike- WR11
The Ballers are starting the top 10 out with one of the hottest names in fantasy football this offseason, Garrett Wilson. Wilson put together a great rookie season leading all rookie WRs in receiving yards while seeing the most targets by a rookie WR since Anquan Boldin in 2003, and did all of that despite pretty poor QB play. With Aaron Rodgers stepping in at QB, even a small increase in play under center could take Wilson to the next level for fantasy. When you add that there aren’t really any receiving threats that could take targets away from Wilson, getting to 100 receptions seems likely in 2023.
Possibly the only issue with getting Garrett Wilson is with his current ADP as the WR10. The draft investment is so high, there’s a chance fantasy managers are having to draft Wilson at his ceiling. While it’s completely possible that Wilson can finish as a top-five WR, there’s also a reality where he has another solid season that doesn’t live up to the 2nd round pick you have to give up to get him on your roster.
WR9 – Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET)
ADP 2.06 / WR9
Andy- WR12 / Jason- WR7 / Mike- WR9
Amon-Ra St. Brown lived up to the hype in 2022 finishing as the WR8. St. Brown’s late-season run in 2021 just poured over into last season where’s now tied with Justin Jefferson and Michael Thomas for the most receptions through the first two years of a WR career (196). What’s possibly more impressive about Amon-Ra’s top-10 finish is that he did it with only six receiving TDs on the year, so he easily could have been better.
The Lions have really worked to help bolster their offense with more dynamic weapons heading into 2023 with the additions of rookies Jahmyr Gibbs at RB and Sam LaPorta at TE, and they’re due to get fellow WR Jameson Williams back after he serves his six-game suspension. For Amon-Ra to continue being an elite fantasy asset, fantasy managers will be betting on him still being the target hog that he was in 2022 while hoping that QB Jared Goff can still be the efficient passer he was last year when he finished just behind Patrick Mahomes in TDs inside the five-zone. At his current ADP, there’s a chance fantasy managers are getting one of the lowest-floor WRs in the elite group.
WR8 – CeeDee Lamb (DAL)
ADP 2.02 / WR7
Andy- WR8 / Jason- WR10 / Mike- WR6
The wonder if CeeDee Lamb would ever hit the elite fantasy level finally happened last season with his WR6 overall finish. Lamb ended the season extremely strong, finishing at least as the WR17 in 10 of his last 12 games, including two overall WR1 weeks. During that stretch, Lamb was the WR2 for fantasy.
The Cowboys went through the “big D” with their offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore, whose pass-centric scheme consistently ranked as one of the best in the league in total offense and scoring. Due to the change at OC, there is some concern that CeeDee’s fantasy production could take a dip if Mike McCarthy pulls back on the passing attempts for Dallas’ offense. If you add in the addition of Brandin Cooks and a healthy Michael Gallup returning, getting value on Lamb’s ADP could be asking too much.
WR7 Davante Adams (LV)
ADP 2.04 / WR8
Andy- WR5 / Jason- WR8 / Mike- WR8
Even a change of scenery and QB couldn’t stop Davante Adams from finishing as a top-five WR. After being traded from Green Bay to Las Vegas, Adams proved all the doubters wrong and turned in his 4th top-three WR finish in five years. The way Adams produced for fantasy managers looked a bit different than in years past. 2022 was Adams’ highest target total of his career at 180 and his highest yard per catch average with 15.2. Still, it doesn’t really matter how he gets there, Adams has continued to be elite through all the changes around him.
The path to another top-three finish will look even more different in 2023. It finally seems the Raiders have some finality with Jimmy Garoppolo being the starting QB in Las Vegas, though it’s been reported he’s struggled with the long ball so far at camp. That could be an issue for Adams’ fantasy production since he tied with Tyreek Hill in targets over 20 years last season, including nine TDs of 20+ yards. What is known is that Adams will be in Las Vegas through the year, despite any rumors of a trade. Fantasy managers could be getting great value in the early to mid 2nd round with a WR who has top-five upside.
WR6 A.J. Brown (PHI)
ADP 2.01 / WR6
Andy- WR7 / Jason- WR6 / Mike- WR8
A huge boost in passing volume looked good in A.J. Brown’s first season in Philadelphia. Brown’s offseason move to the Eagles skyrocketed his target total to 146 last season en route to his first top-five WR finish. Brown could be locked into the top-eight WR range for 2023 if he can maintain his average targets per game over eight. Since 2013, only 12 WRs have finished their 4th and 5th seasons with eight or more targets per game and 11 of those players finished inside the top-eight.
Possibly the only concern with Brown’s fantasy output comes with any decrease in passing volume or TD variance with Philadelphia. The Eagles’ offense took a gigantic step forward last year with Jalen Hurts at the helm, but the passing TD pie may be limited compared to other elite offenses. Brown caught 45% of the team’s passing TDs last season, so any decrease could limit his ability to put up elite numbers again.
WR5 Stefon Diggs (BUF)
ADP 1.10 / WR5
Andy- WR6 / Jason- WR5 / Mike- WR5
After three straight seasons with Diggs finishing inside the top seven, we now see Stefon Diggs listed as the WR5 for 2023. Diggs has averaged 161 targets over his three seasons with the Bills and has turned that into nearly 1,400 yards and 10 TDs per year. Whenever you’re looking for a safe return on value at WR, getting a player in an elite offense that’s consistently throwing around the end zone is all you can ask for. In 2022, the Bills’ offense threw the 4th most red zone targets and finished 3rd in red zone receptions.
While the end of 2022 was rough for Stefon Diggs, fantasy managers will have to bet that wasn’t prescriptive of any change for this season. The Bills didn’t go out of their way to add any major passing weapons, depending on how you feel about rookie TEs. If the Bills continue to be a potent offense, Diggs should continue to be one of the sure bets to return on his late 1st round value.
WR4 Tyreek Hill (MIA)
ADP 1.07 / WR4
Andy- WR2 / Jason- WR4 / Mike- WR4
Any worries that Tyreek Hill was strictly a Patrick Mahomes creation were squashed in 2022 after Hill finished as the WR2, leading all WRs in yards per route run. Hill’s 3.2 YPRR last season was even better than Cooper Kupp’s historic 2021 fantasy season. Miami’s high-profile offense is clearly centered around Hill since he saw 36.8% of the Dolphins’ first-read targets last season, 4th highest for any player in the league.
The argument against drafting Tyreek Hill in the mid-1st of redraft leagues will be similar to concerns with Jaylen Waddle and revolve around the health of Tua Tagovailoa. While there could be a dip in the upside without Tua at QB, in 2022 Hill still fared well whenever Tua missed games, still finishing as the WR4 and WR15 in two of the four games. If we learned any lesson in 2022 from Hill’s move to South Beach, it doesn’t really matter who’s getting the ball to Tyreek Hill because he’s just an elite fantasy option.
WR3 Cooper Kupp (LAR)
ADP 1.06 / WR3
Andy- WR4 / Jason- WR3 / Mike- WR3
Fantasy managers who invested in Cooper Kupp were disappointed in 2022, but only because of injury and not due to anything that Kupp did on the field. In the eight games that Kupp played, he averaged 20.3 fantasy points per game and was on pace for over 1,700 yards and nearly 13 TDs. Possibly the best news for fantasy managers is that the Rams did little to nothing to add to their receiving options, meaning as long as Kupp is healthy and on the field, he will add to the 30% and 28% target per route run numbers he’s posted over the last two seasons.
Speaking of health, that could be the early concern for Kupp’s 2023 fantasy year. Kupp’s hamstring injury currently has him missing training camp and he’s expected to miss the remainder of it. Outside of injury, Kupp seems one of the most sure bets for fantasy managers to place in the early portion of the 1st round. Hopefully, the nearly six weeks of rest will be enough to get one of the elite fantasy options back to full health before the season starts.
WR2 Ja’Marr Chase (CIN)
ADP 1.03 / WR2
Andy- WR3 / Jason- WR2 / Mike- WR1
Ja’Marr Chase’s finish as the WR12 in the 2022 season can be a bit deceiving. While Chase didn’t duplicate the WR5 mark he set in his rookie season, he also missed five games last year. Even so, Chase still saw the third-most red zone targets in the league, which accounted for five of his nine TDs on the year. Chase has also proven to be a difficult matchup for opposing defensive backs to handle, as he’s pressed at the line more than any other WR, but still manages to see a target on 24.5% of his routes.
Being tied to one of the great young QBs in the league with an offense that’s willing to throw the ball over 600 times creates a great floor for an elite fantasy asset like Chase. The only thing that could derail that fantasy greatness is the injury to Joe Burrow, which is something fantasy managers will have to monitor. Regardless of who is throwing Chase the ball, he’s going to be great, but if there are any lingering issues with Burrow, it could affect the ceiling that Chase will have for 2023.
WR1 Justin Jefferson (MIN)
ADP 1.01 / WR1
Andy- WR1 / Jason- WR1/ Mike- WR2
Sitting at the top of the entire fantasy landscape is Justin Jefferson. Jefferson’s 1,809 receiving yards is the 6th-most all-time in a single season, but he’s also seen 476 targets through his first three seasons of the NFL, the most all-time. Through his first three seasons, Jefferson has only produced fantasy greatness, never finishing lower than the WR6 on the year. Jefferson shouldn’t have trouble repeating his elite volume in Minnesota after Adam Thielen’s departure opens the 2nd most routes in the NFL.
If we’re splitting hairs at the top, Jefferson does have added legitimate receiving competition with the Vikings’ addition of Jordan Addison in the 1st round of this year’s draft. While Jefferson was elite in 2022, finishing inside the top-24 in all but five weeks of the season, in those five weeks he was held under 50 receiving yards and was the WR48 or worse. Still, Jefferson is one of the most sure bets that fantasy managers can make at the top of their drafts and is showing no signs of slowing down for another great fantasy year.