The Biggest Start/Sit Decisions for Week 4 (Fantasy Football)
You are not alone if you are trying to keep up with the barrage of injuries stockpiling your IR spots. It has been ROUGH.
Week 3 Injury Updates with @thefantasypt pic.twitter.com/uZjnmslqTj
— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) September 23, 2024
When waiver wire pickups like Carson Steele, Jauan Jennings, and Tyler Conklin are crowding the Fantasy Footballers Start/Sit tool, you know it’s officially Nasty Boy season. To top it off, Hurricane Helene is barreling up the East Coast, throwing an extra wrench into this week’s matchups. There are so many things to consider this week, so let’s dive in and see if we can carve out an edge. Buckle up – it’s going to be a bumpy ride. But with the right moves, we’ll navigate these tricky decisions and (hopefully) lock in that Week 4 victory.
Justin Fields or Anthony Richardson?
The 3-0 Pittsburgh Steelers look to continue their win streak against the 1-2 Indianapolis Colts. Justin Fields has seized his opportunity, proving he’s not just the Steelers’ QB1 for this season but potentially the future of the franchise. Three wins – with two on the road – propel the Steelers to the number one spot in the AFC North. Can Fields keep the momentum going? I think so. Each week, we see the connection with George Pickens grow. He scrambles for first downs when there is nothing there, and keeps drives alive, something the Steelers have been missing. This week, Fields faces a Colts defense that’s allowed the seventh most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
On the flip side, rookie Anthony Richardson will have a much tougher test. The Steelers’ defense has been locking things down, allowing the second-fewest points to opposing quarterbacks. After scoring only 7.1 fantasy points last week against a tough Chicago Bears defense, Richardson’s floor this week is scary.
Verdict: Justin Fields continues to grow as a passer, and against the Colts, who allowed Caleb Williams to throw for 363 yards and two touchdowns last week.
Carson Steele or Roschon Johnson?
Last week, everyone rushed to the waiver wire to add the alligator dad and now starting RB for the Kansas City Chiefs, Carson Steele. Isiah Pacheco will miss six to eight weeks after having surgery on a broken fibula – a tough loss for the Chiefs’ offense. The speculation of who would get the work in the Chiefs’ backfield between rookie RB Carson Steele and veteran RB Samaje Perine had everyone wondering who would be the right pickup for fantasy teams. If you chose Steele, you chose right. 17 carries for 72 yards versus Perines’ six carries for 40. Even though they didn’t have the biggest fantasy outings, Steele getting 17 carries with his first start is promising.
Chiefs @ Falcons
Carson Steele: RB12 in Expected Points without Isaiah Pacheco 👀
Rashee Rice has received a +25% Target Share and +30% Air Yards Share in every game this season 🔥
Kyle Pitts set a season-high in target share (18.5%) and air yards share (38.2%)
[14] pic.twitter.com/AVS10oho83— Marvin Elequin (@FF_MarvinE) September 25, 2024
Want to know about something else very promising? Roschon Johnson. DeAndre Swift hasn’t looked the most efficient with his touches, but Roschon finally got involved last week. He only had eight carries but ran for 62 yards. In comparison, Swift had 12 carries but only produced 42 total yards. It’s also concerning for Swift to see that Roschon got two red zone touches. Will he get more opportunities in Week 4? I think so. Will it be enough to provide a better fantasy output than Steele?
Verdict: Carson Steele. I’m rolling with the guy who’s getting the bulk of the opportunities in his offense. While I do believe Roschon Johnson is primed for a breakout as the Bears start leaning on him more, right now, it’s Carson Steele who’s the lead back in Kansas City. Even with Kareem Hunt back in the mix, Steele should continue to lead the team in touches. I can’t say the same for Roschon just yet. So, for now, I side with the Ballers in starting everyone’s favorite waiver wire add — Carson Steele over Roschon this week.
Jerome Ford or Chuba Hubbard?
Jerome Ford embodies reliable, steady running back production. His ceiling may not be sky-high, but aside from when he left Week 2 with an injury, you can count on him for consistent double-digit touches. The Browns have mostly committed to Ford, with D’Onta Foreman being the only other back seeing any real snaps. That said, the Cleveland offense hasn’t exactly been lighting it up — 18 points is their highest team total of the season. The Browns have an implied point team total of only 17.75.
On the other hand, the Panthers have a new fire sparked under them with a new, well, new to them but old to the league, QB with Andy Dalton under center. After struggling to score just 13 points across two games with Bryce Young, Dalton steps in and sparks a 36-point explosion. The offense is clicking, and instead of constant three-and-outs, the Panthers are driving downfield and creating opportunities for Chuba Hubbard. Hubbard capitalized big time last week with 21 carries for 169 yards, finishing as the RB4. This could be his best opportunity yet to produce fantasy points this season before Jonathon Brooks is healthy and ready to make his debut.
Verdict: This is exactly why you drafted Chuba Hubbard — to step up while Brooks rehabs his ACL injury. You start Chuba this week.
Khalil Shakir or George Pickens?
Khalil Shakir had a very productive outing against the Jaguars last week, with six receptions for 72 yards and a TD. This week, the Bills will go on the road for an AFC showdown against the Ravens. This one could get sloppy, with the remnants of Hurricane Helene expected to bring rain to Baltimore on Sunday. The Bills have been putting up some serious points this season, with 34, 31, and 47 in Weeks 1-3. Josh Allen is making it look easy, even without Stefon Diggs. While he has been spreading the ball around, seeing Shakir’s target share and red zone opportunity grow each week is a trend fantasy players love to see.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are the opposite of what the Buffalo Bills are – ground and pound by beating you on defense and slowly advancing down the field with extended drives while scoring most of their points through field goals. With final team totals of 18, 13, and 20, the Steelers aren’t putting up high-scoring games yet. Pickens has very similar usage and targets as Shakir, even though he is considered the clear WR1 on his team.
Verdict: Khalil Shakir. Yes, I’m going against the Fantasy Footballers on this one and going with the receiver on the offense, scoring more points. With very similar usage as George Pickens, Shakir has more opportunity to score points on an offense that hasn’t gone a week without scoring at least 30. Josh Allen is the QB1 for a reason. The weather may be a concern, but with Helene losing steam, I’m counting on the Bills, who are no strangers to less-than-ideal outdoor conditions, to weather the storm. Pickens is also a strong start this week, but Shakir has the edge for me.
Mike Gesicki or Tyler Conklin?
Is that right? Is Mike Gesicki really the TE6 on the season so far? Yep, that is exactly how we thought it would happen, right? After two back-to-back decent weeks from the griddy man himself, Gesicki is still available in 50% of leagues on Sleeper. He’s been seeing a decent target share, as the Bengals’ offense has finally found its rhythm after a slow start. Even though they’re sitting at 0-3, they face the Panthers next, who have Andy Dalton under center — fresh off a 36-point performance. The revenge game narrative is in full swing here, and this could easily turn into a higher-scoring affair. Vegas agrees, setting the over/under at 47, with the Bengals projected for 25.75 points. The Panthers’ defense has struggled against tight ends, allowing the third most fantasy points to the position through three weeks. Kurt Mullen highlighted in his Week 4 Matchups to Consider article:
“Carolina’s defense is allowing an average of 11.4 fantasy points per game to opposing teams’ TEs, including the TE4 and TE2 in Week 1 against the Saints.”
I expect the Bengals to be full throttle in a much-win game to save their season, with Gesicki benefitting from the opportunity.
Tyler Conklin and the Jets face the Denver Broncos at home this week, and Conklin is coming off a solid performance. After seeing just two targets across the first two weeks, he finally got involved in Week 3 with six targets, turning them into five receptions for 93 yards and finishing as the TE4 on the week. I expect Patrick Surtain to limit Garrett Wilson‘s production, forcing Aaron Rodgers to rely on other options – presumably Conklin.
Had Tyler Conklin added just one more 5-yard catch last night, his single-game total would have exceeded the combined season receiving yards of both Travis Kelce and Sam LaPorta.
— Joe Beldner (@JoeBeldner) September 20, 2024
Verdict: This one is a close call. Both should be serviceable if either tight end is available on your waiver wire and you need a plug-and-play option for the week. However, my gut leans toward Gesicki. The matchup against the Panthers has the potential to be higher scoring compared to the Jets vs. Broncos game. The Jets are more run-heavy and could control the pace on the ground, while the Bengals’ offense has struggled to establish the run effectively. I expect Cincinnati to rely more on the passing game, and Gesicki should benefit from that, especially in a game they’ll likely need to stay aggressive in. Meanwhile, the Jets might have an easier time putting their game away early, leading to fewer passing opportunities. So, if you’re deciding between the two, Gesicki has the slight edge for me this week.
Well, there you have it. This week’s top start/sit questions are broken down, hopefully in a way that helps make your lineup decisions a little easier. If you have any start-sit questions, feel free to hit me up on X, and don’t forget to catch Mike every Sunday morning pre-kickoff for his last-minute start-sit decisions. Good luck!
Comments
Awesome article!
Great stuff!!! Logical takes backed up with some facts… Keep it up!