The Biggest Start/Sit Decisions for Week 16 (Fantasy Football)
Congrats on making it this far—well done, Footclan! I knew you’d step up to the challenge (ba dum tss). But now, it’s crunch time. Welcome to Week 16, the semifinals of the fantasy playoffs! This is the week that separates the contenders from the pretenders. It’s all about winning now to keep that championship dream alive. We’ve been hit with a wave of RB injuries and some QB benchings, leaving many of us scrambling. No Montgomery? No Jameis? It’s time to adjust and make those key pivots. Using the Fantasy Footballers’ Start/Sit tool, I’ll help you navigate those tough lineup decisions. Let’s dive in, get you locked and loaded, and ensure you’re one step closer to that championship trophy!
Aaron Rodgers or Tua Tagovailoa?
The Aaron Rodgers–Davante Adams connection is officially back in business. It took a while for the two to get on the same page, but the gears are turning now. Over the past two weeks, Rodgers has delivered back-to-back 100-yard performances for Adams, who has also found the end zone three times in that span. Last week, Adams came just three yards short of reaching 200 yards. While the Jets may not have playoff aspirations, Rodgers still has plenty to prove. Pride and legacy are on the line, and he’s determined to remind everyone he’s still got “it.”
Rodgers, Wilson, and Adams are getting it done for fantasy. pic.twitter.com/EFizlqFovk
— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) December 18, 2024
This week, the Jets travel to L.A. to face the Rams, a team fighting tooth and nail for the NFC West crown. The Rams, currently tied with Seattle at 8-6 (but holding the tiebreaker), are in must-win mode. With the Seahawks facing a tough matchup against the Vikings, a win here would be huge. Translation: L.A. will be pulling out all the stops, and the Jets will need to keep pace. The game line is set to 46.5 points, which is already pretty high, and yet I’m still betting the over. The Rams’ defense isn’t exactly a fortress against the pass, ranking as the 11th-easiest matchup for QBs per the Strength of Schedule tool. Rodgers and Adams should find plenty of opportunities to light up the scoreboard.
What’s the opposite of heating up? Well, that’s exactly what Tua did last week. It was what we like to call a “Jameis Game”—four turnovers. Four. This was a sharp departure from the steady performances we’ve grown accustomed to. The game underscored a troubling pattern: Tua’s struggles when facing stronger competition. His recent success against weaker teams looked promising, but this latest outing raises questions about his ability to handle pressure when the stakes are higher. Speaking of pressure, he’s facing the San Fransisco 49ers. The 49ers have solidified themselves as an elite pass defense—allowing an average of 15.8 fantasy points to QBs. They’ve only allowed 17 passing touchdowns all season. It’s Week 16. Miami will also be without Jaylen Waddle this week. Tua himself has been limited in practice all week with a hip injury. There are too many red flags here for me.
Verdict: Going against the Ballers and riding into the championship matchup with Aaron Rodgers.
Jerome Ford or Kendre Miller?
Injuries to Nick Chubb and Alvin Kamara have us carefully evaluating their insurance policies as starts this week. But which one will produce the better fantasy performance is the question. Andy has thrown his confidence behind Jerome Ford, naming him his Start of the Week. With Jameis benched, the Browns will probably lean on the run to get it done against a putrid Cincinnati Bengals run defense. How putrid? They’re 31st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position over the last six weeks.
“Over their last five games, Cincinnati has allowed a top-15 RB in each game, including two top-five finishes.” -Kurt Mullen’s Fantasy Matchups to Consider.
Last season, Ford logged 15+ carries in six different games, but this year? Zero. That changes this week. He’s proven he can deliver with a high-volume workload, and with matchups against the Bengals and Dolphins on deck, Ford could emerge as the waiver-wire league winner for managers lucky enough to snag him.
“Arrrrgh! Ma Groin!”- Alvin Kamara via GroinIndex.com.
Welp, losing Alvin Kamara in the fantasy playoffs is absolutely brutal. He’s the RB2 on the season averaging 19 fantasy points per game. Now Kendre Miller gets the opportunity. Alvin Kamara is an absolute unit, but the Saint’s O-line and run-blocking are also some of the best in the league. Kamara’s fantasy dominance relied heavily on his receiving game—something Miller is super comfortable with. Whether or not Derek Carr suits up this game with be critical in how efficient this offense will be. Without Carr, I expect a lot of three-and-outs from the Saints’ offense, and not a lot of opportunity, especially in the red zone. Since it’s a Monday night game, keep an eye on Carr’s practice status through Saturday. With so few weapons left in this offense, Miller might deliver a big fantasy outing simply through sheer volume. He’s been sidelined most of his career with injury, which hasn’t sat well with the coaches. This could be his big opportunity to prove his worth on this team.
Verdict: Jerome Ford. You have to roll with the guy facing the league’s worst run defense. While Kendre Miller has a compelling narrative and is a strong option, Ford has consistently delivered when given opportunities. This matchup is simply too juicy to pass up.
Isiah Pacheco or Kendre Miller?
I’ve already broken down Kendre Miller’s matchup and opportunity, so let’s dive straight into Isiah Pacheco. Pacheco hasn’t pulled away from Kareem Hunt since his return. Last week, the two backs split carries evenly, with each logging 13 attempts. Unfortunately, Pacheco’s efficiency was abysmal—just 32 rushing yards at a meager 2.5 yards per carry. The Chiefs face the Houston Texans, who allow 17.2 fantasy points per game to running backs. That sounds promising on the surface, but don’t be fooled. The Texans are one of the stingiest teams against the run lately, ranking in the top 10 for the fewest rushing yards allowed over the past three weeks. If that wasn’t enough to pump the brakes on Pacheco, the Chiefs are also welcoming back Marquise “Hollywood” Brown. With another dynamic weapon in the passing game, Kansas City may lean even more on Patrick Mahomes and the aerial attack. Between splitting carries with Hunt and facing a tough matchup, Pacheco’s upside this week feels capped. Andy warned during Thursday’s episode that he would be “trying very hard not to play him.”
Verdict: Kendre Miller.
Adam Thielen or Jalen McMillan?
Ahh rookie vs. vet. Adam Thielen has been impressive since coming back from IR, proving that age is just a number. Over the past four games, he’s averaged 77.25 receiving yards, showing he’s still a reliable target and capable of racking up yards in a consistent manner. While the touchdowns haven’t been there recently, his steady production in the yardage department makes him valuable. This week, the team’s receiving corps faces additional challenges with Xavier Legette ruled out due to a hip injury and Jalen Coker listed as questionable with a quad issue. If Coker can’t suit up, it will likely funnel even more targets Thielen’s way, making him a potential volume-based play. Keep an eye on the injury reports, but Thielen’s combination of experience and a depleted WR room could lead to another productive outing for the “old guy.” The Panthers take on the Arizona Cardinals in Week 16—a matchup that might look intimidating on paper but isn’t as daunting as it seems. Over the past four games, the Cardinals’ defense has been middle-of-the-pack against wide receivers. They’ve given up 548 yards and three touchdowns in that span, which averages out to 137 yards per game. Not exactly lockdown territory but not giving away too much either.
After Andy’s touchdown guarantee two weeks prior, Jalen McMillan hasn’t been able to stop scoring since! Three total for the third-round rookie over that time. Is this a fluke or the real thing? Well, the Ballers are Hungry For More McMillan. He’s seen a substantial usage increase. His target share increased from 11-13% to 32-39%. He’s averaging 20.2 fantasy points over the last two weeks.
Hungry for more Jalen McMillan pic.twitter.com/dQytvKWb9p
— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) December 19, 2024
McMillan is in an ideal spot this week against the Cowboys. Vegas has the game total at 48.5, so we’re expecting plenty of fireworks. Last week, Cooper Rush dropped three touchdowns and is set up to do it again, facing Tampa Bay’s soft passing defense. The Bucs are going to need to rally. Speaking of weak secondaries, Dallas isn’t much better. They’re neck and neck with Tampa at the bottom of the league, giving up 1.9 points above expectation to wide receivers. Adding to their troubles, Micah Parsons landed on Friday’s injury report with the flu. He’ll probably suit up, but it’s something to keep an eye on. The one thing that has me worried the most this week is the injury to Baker Mayfield. After his NFC Offensive Player of the Week performance, the last thing we needed was an injury scare. Thankfully, two full practices later, it’s all systems go.
Verdict: Both receivers offer a solid floor—Thielen’s consistent usage and McMillan’s favorable matchup makes this a tough call. That said, I’m leaning toward McMillan. His red-zone usage is hard to overlook, and the recent uptick in his involvement is really encouraging. With the Buccaneers fighting for playoff positioning, this game is shaping up to be high-scoring, and McMillan is poised to be a key contributor.
It’s semifinal week in the fantasy playoffs, and now’s the time to trust the grind and preparation that’s brought you this far. Lean on the Footballer’s tools, trust your instincts, and make those clutch start/sit calls as you keep your eyes on the ultimate prize. Let’s lock in and keep the momentum rolling toward that championship trophy! Got start/sit questions or want to strategize? Hit me up on X—I’m always here to help. Good luck, Footclan, and above all, I hope you have a merry Christmas filled with family, football, and festive vibes. Let’s go get that win!
Comments
Juedy, Ford or Patrick Taylor
MCMILLIAN OR KENDRE THO?!?!?!
Great read, Fox!!
Another GEM!! Great stuff!
Great picks as always!