The Biggest Start/Sit Decisions for Week 1 (Fantasy Football)
Football is back, baby! The 2024 NFL Season has finally arrived after months of anticipation and countless hours spent perfecting those fantasy teams. Now, it’s time to take charge and dominate your league with the perfect lineup. I’ll break down the most pressing start/sit decisions facing the FootClan each week, using insights from the Fantasy Footballers Start/Sit tool. I’ll provide my take on the toughest calls to help you lock in the right lineup to win your matchups. There’s no better way to kick things off than with a sweet Week 1 victory, so let’s dive into this week’s most pressing start/sit decisions and start the season on top.
QB:
Jared Goff or Kyler Murray?
Jared Goff faces his old team, the Los Angeles Rams, in Week 1 at home in Detroit. The game has a hefty 52-point over/under, hinting at plenty of scoring. In last year’s playoff rematch, Goff helped knock off the Rams but posted a modest 277 passing yards and one TD. Most of the damage came on the ground, with both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs finding the end zone. This time, the touchdowns could shift in Goff’s favor, which would be huge for his fantasy output. According to the Fantasy Footballers’ Strength of Schedule tool, the Rams give up the sixth-most points to quarterbacks. Now they are without Aaron Darnold. Mike has made Goff his Start of the Week, buying into the revenge game narrative and the week’s highest projected total.
Andy has locked in Kyler Murray as his Start of the Week, and now the lines have been drawn. Murray heads to Buffalo to face a heavily favored Bills squad, which could lead to a game script where the Cardinals are forced to play catch-up. The game has a 47-point over/under, but honestly, I’m betting on the under. Murray’s rushing ability gives him a solid floor and he finally has a true WR1 in Marvin Harrison Jr., but expecting instant chemistry — even with a generational talent like Harrison—is a big ask in Week 1. The matchup isn’t easy either, as the Bills allow the fifth-fewest points to QBs.
Verdict: As much as I love Jared Goff this season — especially with all those dome games — I was leaning toward Kyler Murray for his rushing upside. But once I dug into the matchups, things shifted. The Ballers have both QBs rated neck and neck, however, after looking at the game totals, hearing Mike’s take on the revenge narrative, and considering that Goff is at home with the potential for those touchdowns to swing his way, I’ve come around. This week, it’s Goff for me.
RB:
Raheem Mostert or Jerome Ford?
Choosing between two late-round RB fliers, Raheem Mostert and Jerome Ford, is a tough call this week. Let’s break down the matchups to find the edge. Raheem Mostert goes up against the Jacksonville Jaguars, a defense allowing an average of 19.6 fantasy points to running backs. The game’s over/under is set at 49 points, signaling plenty of offense on both sides. This is a matchup I want to invest in, and honestly, I’m tempted to bet the over.
Jerome Ford, on the other hand, faces the Dallas Cowboys at home with a much lower 41-point over/under. With Nick Chubb starting the season on the PUP list, Ford should have a clear path to being the every-down back. That’s a luxury Mostert won’t have, as he’ll be splitting touches with Devon Achane and possibly even Jaylen Wright.
Verdict: So, is volume the key, or do quality touches and scoring opportunities matter more? When you’re swinging for your RB2 or flex spot, I lean toward the latter. A higher implied point total and more chances to score give Mostert the nod. I’m siding with the Ballers this week — start Mostert.
Jerome Ford or Javonte Williams?
The Start/Sit tool has been flooded with Jerome Ford matchup questions for Week 1, so let’s dive into another one — this time, it’s Ford vs. Javonte Williams. Yes, Williams made the Broncos roster and is expected to lead the backfield, despite earlier rumors from beat reporters suggesting he might be a “cut candidate.” Fantasy football is WILD.
In Week 1, the Broncos face the Seahawks on the road, and if there’s ever a time for Williams to lock down his RB1 status, this is it. As Kurt Mullen notes in his Matchups to Consider article, “Seattle’s defense allowed 24.2 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs last season and ranked second-worst in both rushing yards and rushing TDs allowed.”
Count me in as someone who’s skeptical of the Javonte / DEN RB stuff
JW will be much more explosive in year two off the ACL + LCL https://t.co/hJ88cwldJe
— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) July 25, 2024
Verdict: A Juicy matchup and a chance to prove himself? I’m taking Javonte Williams over Jerome Ford for Week 1.
WR:
Calvin Ridley or Tank Dell?
Calvin Ridley started strong last year, racking up 101 yards and a touchdown on eight targets in Week 1, scoring over 16 fantasy points. It looked like he was primed to be the top guy in Jacksonville, but fantasy managers saw that potential fade as the season went on. Now, he’s secured the bag with the Titans, who desperately need weapons to help Will Levis get the offense going. DeAndre Hopkins is nursing a knee injury that’s limited him in practice, though he’s expected to suit up. With a low team total of just 20.5 points and a backfield featuring Tyjae Spears and Tony Pollard, the Titans may lean heavily on the run game to control the clock.
Tank Dell‘s rookie season was a completely different story. He far exceeded expectations, piling up over 700 yards in just 10 games before a leg injury cut his season short. He also was a TD machine. Now fully healthy, Dell returns to a more crowded offense, as the Texans brought in former Bills star Stefon Diggs and bolstered their backfield with Joe Mixon. Houston heads to Indianapolis to face the Colts with an implied team total of 25.75, setting the stage for a high-scoring attack from the Texans.
Verdict: While Diggs might eat into some of Dell’s opportunities, the Texans’ high-flying offense gives Dell an edge over Calvin Ridley. Given the Titans’ less explosive potential, I’ll bet with the Ballers on Dell’s upside, even in a crowded WR room.
Jaylen Waddle or Mike Evans?
Mike’s My Guy this year. Can Jaylen Waddle bounce back from what was easily the worst season of his career and reclaim his spot among the elite WRs we know and love? He’ll have a chance to kick off the season strong against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who had the 26th-ranked pass defense last year and an over/under of 49. Even Tyreek Hill has noticed Waddle’s renewed focus and commitment to his development as a receiver. It’s worth mentioning that Puka Nacua broke Waddle’s rookie receiving yards record last year, underscoring how impressive Waddle’s previous performance was.
My main concern is that Waddle has recently been held out of practice due to an undisclosed injury and only returned last week wearing a calf sleeve and a non-contact jersey. Although he’s not on this week’s injury report and should be ready to play, it’s still something worth noting.
Good ol’ Mike Evans. Evans was Baker Mayfield‘s go-to receiver last year, where he heavily peppered him with targets. The Buccaneers take on the Washington Commanders in a game with a lower over/under at 42.5. The Commanders’ defense was dreadful last year, finishing dead last in DVOA against the pass and surrendering the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and wide receivers. Even though Vegas is predicting a higher-scoring game between Miami and Jacksonville, I’m siding with Andy, Mike, and Jason on this one and starting Mike Evans over Jaylen Waddle. Even though Waddle is off the injury report, his injury still worries me. We’ve seen how Waddle struggles with efficiency when playing through injuries, often being used more as a decoy than a true playmaker. This week, the favorable matchup against the Commanders’ defense gives the edge to the Buccaneers and Mike Evans. Despite Vegas projecting a lower-point total for this game, I believe it has the potential to surprise everyone. The Commanders’ moves — bringing in Kliff Kingsbury and drafting QB Jayden Daniels in the first round — seem to be flying under the radar, and this game could end up being more of a shootout than anticipated.
Baker + Evans Deep Ball Connection was 🤝
✅ 3rd MOST 20+ Yard Targets
✅ SEVEN 20+ Yard TDs… 2nd only to Tyreek Hill pic.twitter.com/Jbx06bWg8o— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) August 8, 2024
Verdict: I’m starting Mike Evans over Jaylen Waddle this week, and I’ll probably regret it.
As we get ready to take down our opponents in Week 1, remember that every lineup decision counts. Take advantage of favorable matchups, consider the impact of recent injuries, and trust your instincts. Here’s to starting the season on a high note with a Week 1 victory. Let’s get those lineups set and make this season one to remember! If you have any questions, feel free to hit me up on X, and don’t forget to tune into Mike every Sunday morning pre-kickoff for those last-minute Start/Sit answers.
Comments
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