Targets Per Route Run Report: Week 8 (Fantasy Football)

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Each week, we’re taking a look at Targets Per Route Run (TPRR) across the league and the season. With bye weeks in full swing, it’s more important than ever to dig into the data to find hidden gems and players poised to exceed expectations in the second half of the season.

Note: Targets per Route Run (TPRR) is an efficiency metric (expressed as a percentage) used to highlight the correlation between performance and opportunity. With TPRR, we can look deeper than raw target totals to find players poised for breakouts or breakdowns. To learn more about TPRR and why it’s a useful tool, check out Kyle Borgognoni’s primer and my 2022 season preview

Week 7 Recap

Here’s a look at the Week 7 leaderboard (min. 10 routes run).

*Route and Target Data via PFF.com
**Monday Night Football stats are not included

Three Positives

  • In his return from suspension, DeAndre Hopkins earned 14 targets from Kyler Murray on only 29 routes run. Those are big boy numbers. Hopkins won’t keep up a target rate that insanely high, but he is poised to dominate targets in an Arizona offense that might have finally found its rhythm.
  • D.J. Moore had his best game of the season with P.J. Walker peppering him with 10 targets against Tampa Bay. With Walker already named the starter against Atlanta, Moore should be in for a repeat performance in Week 8.
  • Noah Brown has shown a knack for earning targets with Dak Prescott, with a nine-target, 23% TPRR Week 1, and this seven-target effort against the Lions. It didn’t translate to fantasy relevance in a ho-hum offensive performance for the Cowboys, but Prescott’s return should add more scoring upside for Brown.

Four Negatives

  • Speaking of Dallas, Michael Gallup whiffed completely in Week 7 with a 9.1% TPRR and zero fantasy points. It may be too soon to give up on him completely, but Gallup’s inability to earn targets amidst the competition is worrying.
  • Deebo Samuel posted a 16.7% TPRR in Week 7, his first sub-20% result of the season. and finished with less than 10 fantasy points. The down week could be coincidental, but the arrival of Christian McCaffrey is concerning for Deebo’s fantasy value.
  • Has Parris Campbell passed Alec Pierce in Indianapolis? I’ve hyped him earlier in the season, but Pierce’s 8.7% TPRR in Week 7 does not instill confidence. Matt Ryan is being benched in favor of Sam Ehlinger, which only serves to muddy the waters further.
  • DeAndre Hopkins‘ return in Arizona should not have had this much of an effect on Rondale Moore‘s involvement, especially with Marquise Brown landing on Injured Reserve. Two targets and a 6.7% TPRR is downright scary.

Season Leaders and Losers

To eliminate irrelevant data, I’ve set the season minimum at 20 targets. The far-right column shows the change in rankings from the previous week.  Here are the current season leaders in TPRR among qualified receivers:

*Route and Target Data via PFF.com
**Monday Night Football stats are not included

Leaders

  • Rashod Bateman (24.8% TPRR) leaps into the top 15 after his return from a foot injury. The Baltimore offense has been rocky since Week 3, but Bateman is poised to benefit if and when Lamar Jackson and co. get back on track.
  • Chris Godwin (25% TPRR) moved up another two spots on the season list but has yet to score a touchdown. With his TPRR at this level, he should start paying off on the scoresheet. If Mike Evans is forced to miss any time, Godwin is in line for an even greater target rate.
  • Not just a big play guy. Tyler Lockett (23.4% TPRR) ascends to the top 20 and is having a career year in TPRR. Seattle’s offense is much better than we thought, and Lockett is getting the volume and efficiency needed to finish as a WR1. D.K. Metcalf (knee) appears to have avoided surgery but could miss time. Marquise Goodwin would benefit directly from Metcalf’s absence, but Lockett should also soak up targets at an even greater rate.

Losers

  • Garrett Wilson has a respectable 23.2% TPRR on the season. Still, he’s fallen in the rankings for the third consecutive week, and none of the Jets pass catchers can be trusted with Zach Wilson under center.
  • Brandin Cooks has struggled more often than not in 2022, and his outlook doesn’t appear much brighter. A trade to a better offense would give him a boost, but he’s not receiving the consistent targets that made him a WR2 last season.
  • After several weeks on this list, Gabriel Davis did absolutely nothing in Week 7. Sure, the Bills were on a bye. But I would’ve liked to see a little effort to bring your grade up, Gabriel.
  • Drake London‘s early-season performances keep his name near the top of the TPRR rankings, but the passing volume in Atlanta is dreadfully low with Marcus Mariota at quarterback. Among the top-20 receivers in TPRR who haven’t missed a game, London has the fewest routes run (155) and targets (42).

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