Targets Per Route Run Report: Week 4 (Fantasy Football)

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Welcome back to the TPRR report. As a refresher, Targets Per Route Run, or TPRR, is a metric that quantifies a player’s efficiency in earning targets. For wide receivers, a target is the most important underlying metric to predict consistent fantasy output, so a player’s ability to earn those targets at a high rate is key. Historically, a 20% TPRR is a good minimum threshold we want to see, and the best of the best consistently see TPRRs north of 30%.

Let’s take a look at this week’s leaders. As always, TPRR is part of the story. The number of routes run for each player is an important indicator of game script and a team’s propensity to throw.

Week 3 TPRR leaders stat table

Data courtesy of pff.com

Week 3 Reactions

Rashee Rice, league winner?

With a suspension looming before the season, Rashee Rice‘s ADP dropped past the top 24 wide receivers. Even though Patrick Mahomes is keeping things close to the line of scrimmage (5.4 aDot, by far the lowest of his career), Rice is seeing elite volume and the Chiefs are winning. Expect this to continue while Isiah Pacheco is out regardless of Travis Kelce‘s contributions.

Courtland Sutton, I just can’t quit you

Bo Nix has had a rough go of it offensively, but the Broncos were able to pull off a shocking victory over the Bucs in Week 3. Josh Reynolds is limited with an Achilles injury and will likely cede some playing time to Lil’Jordan Humphrey this week. There’s a strong chance the Jets completely shut down Denver’s offense, but my money would be on Courtland Sutton (35% TPRR) to be on the receiving end of Nix’s first NFL passing score.

Team Focus: Philadelphia Eagles

With a Week 5 bye coming up, the Eagles will most likely sit both DeVonta Smith (27.8% TPRR) and A.J. Brown for Week 4. I’m not putting my eggs in the basket of any other Philly receiver, as Jahan Dotson‘s TPRR in Week 3 was a lowly 5%. Britain Covey is an intriguing DFS flyer as his snap count is likely to increase this week, but Dallas Goedert (25% TPRR) and Saquon Barkley should be the biggest beneficiaries.

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Team Focus: San Francisco 49ers

Jauan Jennings (35% TPRR) stole the show in Week 3 with three touchdowns, but Brandon Aiyuk (29%) wasn’t far behind in targets. Aiyuk has had a rocky start to the season, but he’s due for some positive regression. That is, as long as his frustrations don’t bubble up off the field. He’s no stranger to the Shanahan doghouse.

Other: 

  • After an abysmal Week 1, Drake London‘s TPRR has risen steadily, up to 30% against the Chiefs. The Falcons’ offensive line woes are a major concern, but London could benefit greatly if Kirk Cousins is forced to throw early and often against the Saints. Darnell Mooney (26.7%) saw his targets jump in Week 3 on a series of screen plays and is a decent option in full-PPR.
  • None are suffering more from QB issues than Miami receivers. Tyreek Hill, who has topped the TPRR list from time eternal, and Jaylen Waddle are languishing at sub-20% TPRRs in a Miami offense without competent quarterback play. Are we sitting Tyreek Hill?
  • The league leaders in PROE after three weeks are the Bengals (6.1%), Seahawks (6.1%), Browns (3.8%), Raiders (3.1%), and Vikings (2.7%). The Raiders and Browns are passing at over a 70% clip.

The full list:

Targets Per Route Run – Season Leaders (Min 35 routes)
Rank Player Team Routes Targets TPRR + /-
1 Cooper Kupp LA 70 27 38.6% 0
2 Rashee Rice KC 88 29 33.0% 4
3 Malik Nabers NYG 114 36 31.6% 0
4 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 111 32 28.8% 6
5 Ladd McConkey LAC 59 17 28.8% 0
6 Deebo Samuel SF 67 19 28.4% 3
7 Diontae Johnson CAR 90 25 27.8% 23
8 Chris Godwin TB 87 24 27.6% -6
9 Justin Jefferson MIN 81 22 27.2% -2
10 Wan’Dale Robinson NYG 89 23 25.8% 8
11 Devaughn Vele DEN 31 8 25.8% 8
12 Garrett Wilson NYJ 101 26 25.7% 1
13 Michael Pittman Jr. IND 74 19 25.7% 4
14 DeVonta Smith PHI 110 28 25.5% 8
15 Jauan Jennings SF 84 21 25.0% 35
16 Tyreek Hill MIA 95 23 24.2% -4
17 Nico Collins HST 112 27 24.1% -3
18 Greg Dortch ARZ 67 16 23.9% -3
19 Dontayvion Wicks GB 38 9 23.7% -8
19 Tutu Atwell LA 38 9 23.7% #N/A
21 Rashid Shaheed NO 60 14 23.3% 0
22 A.J. Brown PHI 39 9 23.1% 6
23 George Pickens PIT 74 17 23.0% 3
24 Jayden Reed GB 61 14 23.0% 21
24 Khalil Shakir BUF 61 14 23.0% 11
26 Adonai Mitchell IND 45 10 22.2% 10
27 Marvin Harrison Jr. ARZ 95 21 22.1% 20
28 Courtland Sutton DEN 114 25 21.9% 25
29 D.K. Metcalf SEA 105 23 21.9% -5
30 Chris Olave NO 64 14 21.9% 8
31 Zay Flowers BLT 101 22 21.8% 2
32 Drake London ATL 88 19 21.6% 23
33 Quentin Johnston LAC 65 14 21.5% -13
34 Stefon Diggs HST 110 23 20.9% 17
35 Davante Adams LV 126 26 20.6% -4
36 DJ Moore CHI 131 27 20.6% -4
37 Jameson Williams DET 107 22 20.6% -8
38 DeAndre Hopkins TEN 49 10 20.4% 49
39 Amari Cooper CLV 133 27 20.3% 21
40 CeeDee Lamb DAL 115 23 20.0% -17
40 Noah Brown WAS 30 6 20.0% #N/A
42 Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA 106 21 19.8% -26
43 Tyler Johnson LA 72 14 19.4% 12
44 Olamide Zaccheaus WAS 31 6 19.4% -7
45 Darnell Mooney ATL 89 17 19.1% 21
46 Terry McLaurin WAS 95 18 18.9% 2
47 Brian Thomas Jr. JAX 90 17 18.9% 16
47 Tyler Lockett SEA 90 17 18.9% 23
49 Brandon Aiyuk SF 103 19 18.4% 28
50 Calvin Austin III PIT 49 9 18.4% 22
51 Jonathan Mingo CAR 67 12 17.9% -13
52 Christian Kirk JAX 95 17 17.9% 27
53 Allen Lazard NYJ 90 16 17.8% -26
54 Alec Pierce IND 74 13 17.6% -14
55 Tank Dell HST 105 18 17.1% 6
56 Gabe Davis JAX 96 16 16.7% -1
56 Jalen Brooks DAL 42 7 16.7% 5
58 Calvin Ridley TEN 98 16 16.3% -16
59 Mike Evans TB 86 14 16.3% -25
60 Jerry Jeudy CLV 123 20 16.3% -8
61 Lil’Jordan Humphrey DEN 74 12 16.2% 26
62 Marquez Valdes-Scantling BUF 31 5 16.1% #N/A
63 Ja’Marr Chase CIN 112 18 16.1% 2
64 Ray-Ray McCloud III ATL 81 13 16.0% -23
65 DeAndre Carter CHI 75 12 16.0% 3
66 Trenton Irwin CIN 44 7 15.9% -2
67 Tyler Boyd TEN 95 15 15.8% -9
68 Andrei Iosivas CIN 102 16 15.7% 9
69 Jakobi Meyers LV 115 18 15.7% 21
70 Josh Reynolds DEN 96 15 15.6% -21
71 Xavier Legette CAR 58 9 15.5% -25
72 Tee Higgins CIN 39 6 15.4% #N/A
73 Parker Washington JAX 33 5 15.2% #N/A
74 Romeo Doubs GB 73 11 15.1% -21
75 Jaylen Waddle MIA 93 14 15.1% -5
76 Adam Thielen CAR 74 11 14.9% 5
77 Michael Wilson ARZ 88 13 14.8% 23
78 Tim Patrick DET 34 5 14.7% -35
79 Demario Douglas NE 75 11 14.7% 27
80 Joshua Palmer LAC 41 6 14.6% -11
81 Xavier Worthy KC 77 11 14.3% -14
82 Rome Odunze CHI 128 18 14.1% 10
83 Elijah Moore CLV 122 17 13.9% -24
84 Tre Tucker LV 101 14 13.9% 13
85 Brandin Cooks DAL 109 15 13.8% -11
86 Demarcus Robinson LA 102 14 13.7% -11
87 Rashod Bateman BLT 96 13 13.5% -1
88 K.J. Osborn NE 61 8 13.1% -63
89 Christian Watson GB 54 7 13.0% -9
90 Jalen Tolbert DAL 111 14 12.6% -17
91 Keon Coleman BUF 56 7 12.5% -16
92 Luke McCaffrey WAS 58 7 12.1% 3
93 Jalen Nailor MIN 75 9 12.0% -10
94 Dyami Brown WAS 45 5 11.1% 4
94 Nelson Agholor BLT 45 5 11.1% -7
96 Ja’Lynn Polk NE 57 6 10.5% -5
97 Van Jefferson PIT 48 5 10.4% -14
98 Darius Slayton NYG 98 10 10.2% -16
99 JuJu Smith-Schuster KC 40 4 10.0% #N/A
100 Justin Watson KC 51 5 9.8% -6
101 Mike Williams NYJ 52 5 9.6% 7
102 Treylon Burks TEN 64 6 9.4% -1
103 Cedric Tillman CLV 44 4 9.1% 0
103 Ronnie Bell SF 33 3 9.1% #N/A
105 Kalif Raymond DET 51 4 7.8% -10
106 Tyquan Thornton NE 52 4 7.7% -7
107 Brandon Powell MIN 57 4 7.0% -2
108 Jalen McMillan TB 86 6 7.0% -15
109 Braxton Berrios MIA 59 4 6.8% -7
110 Scotty Miller PIT 31 2 6.5% #N/A
111 Mack Hollins BUF 64 4 6.3% -7
112 Parris Campbell PHI 34 2 5.9% #N/A
112 Xavier Gipson NYJ 34 2 5.9% #N/A
114 Jahan Dotson PHI 94 4 4.3% -7

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