Targets Per Route Run Report: Week 2 (Fantasy Football)

So…how was everyone’s first week of football? If your team is anything like mine, it feels like Week 1 just thrashed you around and spat you ashore. You’re filled with regret, waiting to die on the waiver wire.

But I’ve come to remind you of something you once knew. To remind you that Targets Per Route Run is real, and it can help bring you back from limbo. So come back with me, and let’s be young men (and women) together. 

As a reminder, this weekly series is intended to give you actionable insights for the week ahead based on Targets Per Route Run (TPRR). TPRR is a pretty simple metric; we divide a player’s targets by their routes run and express it as a percentage. To learn more about TPRR and why it’s a useful tool, check out the 2023 season preview.

Week 1 Recap

Week 1 is a very small sample size. We don’t want to overreact, but it’s also our first real look at players and offenses. To cut through the noise, let’s examine both ends of the TPRR spectrum, hopefully without freaking out too much.

Here’s a look at the top 25 players in TPRR with a minimum of 15 routes run (I’ve included the full table of 95 players at the end of this article for reference).

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Source: pff.com; Monday Night Football stats unavailable at the time of writing

All of these players were targeted on at least 23% of their routes; naturally, the best fantasy players combine a high TPRR with a high number of routes. It’s a good indicator that they are on the field a lot and/or their team offense has a lot of potential in the passing game.

Takeaways from Week 1

Did you draft Tyreek Hill? Congrats, he’s awesome. Hill’s TPRR reflects how involved he is in Miami’s offense, as he’s earning a target on almost half of his routes. But let’s take Tyreek, who everyone knows is great, and compare him to some others at the top of this list. (All due respect to River Cracraft, but running 15 routes does not suggest a significant role in the Miami offense yet).

1. Puka Nacua Might Be Real

The Los Angeles Rams surprised everyone by putting the beatdown on the favored Seahawks in Seattle. Again, it’s a small sample size, but it’s very encouraging that Matt Stafford threw the ball 38 times for over 300 yards. Puka Nacua, a 5th-rounder out of BYU, filled the Cooper Kupp role with aplomb for the Rams offense and will be a popular waiver wire pickup. Kupp is out for at least three more games, and there’s not much competition for targets. Puka should have every opportunity to cement his role. Unfortunately, the Rams have to face the 49ers pass rush in Week 2, so I’m expecting a lackluster Week 2 and a bounceback in Week 3.

2. Calvin Ridley Is Very Real

Two-year break? No biggie. The big question was how targets from Trevor Lawrence would be distributed after Ridley’s arrival in Jacksonville. If Week 1 is any indication, it’s Calvin Ridley then everyone else. Christian Kirk looked like an afterthought in the offense, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Kirk and Zay Jones make it difficult to know who the second receiver is from week to week.

3. Brandon Aiyuk: WR1?

Brandon Aiyuk (26.7% TPRR) saw two more targets than Deebo Samuel (17.6%) on four fewer routes, and he capitalized on the opportunity. This is an area where I’d be careful not to crown Aiyuk as the number one with such a small sample size. However, Deebo Samuel could prove to be more game-script dependent with a lower floor than his teammate.

4. What’s up with the Bengals?

Just shake this one off. The Bengals were dismantled by the 49ers in Week 1, and their receiving corps caught the brunt of Joe Burrow‘s career-worst game. We can breathe a sigh of relief when we look at the underlying data, however; the target rate breakdown was within expectation, and Cincinnati should bounce back against Baltimore. Ja’Marr Chase led the way and Tee Higgins was very involved. Nothing to see here.

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5. Jakobi Meyers (Or His Replacement) Value

Davante Adams didn’t have the Week 1 fantasy managers would have wanted, but he still commanded a 31% TPRR. The fantasy production will undoubtedly swing his way over the course of the season, but Jakobi Meyers (41.7%) was a valuable target for check-down king Jimmy Garoppolo. With Adams and Josh Jacobs garnering the attention from opposing defenses, there’s value in a secondary target for Las Vegas. Meyers entered the concussion protocol after a scary hit, so he’s not a lock for Week 2. If Meyers misses time, I’m looking at Hunter Renfrow as a potential DFS dart throw or a flyer in deeper leagues.

6. Bad News Bears

Don’t freak out, don’t freak out. That’s every DJ Moore manager right now. It didn’t look good for the Bears’ offense, as Justin Fields only attempted four passes of 10+ yards in the blowout loss to Green Bay. Oh, and then there’s this:

Justin Fields on Bears' short passing game in loss to Packers: 'That's just the game plan' https://t.co/SwyGhQ3b9g via @CEmma670 pic.twitter.com/lFaUJe6nqz

— 670 The Score (@670TheScore) September 11, 2023

That’s not a recipe for success for any of the Bears’ receivers, backed up by an abysmal 4.3% TPRR for DJ Moore on 46 routes run. As we like to say, that’s just cardio.

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Quick Hits and Conclusion

Again, there’s a lot of data to digest, and we don’t want to jump to conclusions. But I’ll leave you with these knee-jerk reactions:

• DeAndre Hopkins is obviously the No. 1 in Tennessee, but will that matter?
• Mac Jones attempted approximately 9,000 passes in Week 1 (OK, 54). That kind of volume is worth monitoring.
• Diontae Johnson had a 26% TPRR before his hamstring betrayed him. Pittsburgh looked outmatched in Week 1, but someone is going to pick up that slack. Will it be George Pickens or *shudder* Allen Robinson?
• The Atlanta Falcons were dead last in Pass Rate over Expectation (PRoE) in neutral situations in 2022. It doesn’t look like that’s going to change, so my finger is on the panic button for Drake London (5% TPRR on only 20 routes) and Kyle Pitts.
• The Chiefs’ receivers stink.

The full list: