Snap Count Observations: Transactions to Make for Week 5 (Fantasy Football)
We are getting to the point in the NFL season where playing time becomes predictable for most players, which renders this article a bit shorter than normal. This article focuses on notable changes to playing time. Let’s look at a couple of big shifts in playing time that might be actionable.
Cincinnati Bengals
Chase Brown 40%; Zack Moss 60%; Mike Gesicki 33%; Erick All 60%
The Bengals saw two interesting snap count developments at two different positions: running back and tight end.
First, regarding the running back position, Chase Brown saw a 10% playing time bump from his season average. He ran really well with this extra playing time, scoring two touchdowns on his 80 rushing yards. He even added a couple of catches on three targets. It should be noted that only three of Brown’s touches occurred in the first half, while nine of his touches occurred in the fourth quarter when Cincinnati was ahead by 10 points. Some of this appears to be giving rest to Moss, who remains the preferred running back in Cincinnati, but still, a 10-point lead isn’t exactly “rest the starters” time. The increase in playing time is somewhat notable, but perhaps not actionable. Brown would be a very valuable insurance policy should Moss ever miss time.
Meanwhile, at the tight end position, it appears that Erick All is the most well-rounded tight end on the Bengals. All does quite a bit of blocking with Drew Sample but he is also an adequate pass catcher. He saw four targets for 28 yards. The more interesting development is the fade out of Mike Gesicki. Gesicki is not a blocker, so he’s on the field to catch passes. But Tee Higgins’ return has essentially rendered Gesicki superfluous in the offense. If you were holding Gesicki, like me, he can be dropped.
Conclusion: Drop Mike Gesicki; hold Chase Brown only as an insurance policy.
Carolina Panthers
Xavier Legette 87%
Adam Thielen’s injury allowed the Panthers to fully utilize rookie Xavier Legette. Legette played essentially every snap, and matched Diontae Johnson’s playing time. He saw 10 targets, and received two carries to boot.
This is very encouraging and exciting for Legette. Andy Dalton is running this offense competently, for the most part, and all Panthers playmakers are benefiting. Now that Thielen is removed from the equation, Legette may take this role and run with it. He’s an exciting player who looks like he belongs in the NFL, running a fairly diverse route tree and looking big while doing it.
Conclusion: If Legette is available in your league, he’s an add.
Los Angeles Rams
Jordan Whittington 97%; Tutu Atwell 90%; Demarcus Robinson 85%; Tyler Johnson 16%
It appears that the Tyler Johnson experiment has ended, and he has been relegated to WR4. Meanwhile, Whittington and Atwell have taken over the role as the top two receiving options, which makes sense to me. I told you last week that Atwell looked like the best receiver on the Rams, and I stand by that. I also said that Demarcus Robinson was just a guy, and that is clearly true.
The unexpected part is the rise of Jordan Whittington. Whittington led the team in targets, routes, and snaps. He looked decent, but Atwell is still the guy who is doing the most with his touches. Whittington is interesting as a Rams receiver who basically never leaves the field. He had quite a bit of buzz around him in the preseason too, so there may finally be something here.
I realize this wasn’t a world-changing performance by Whittington, but the Rams played the Bears this week, and the Bears have a very strong defense. There might be potential for greater output in the future. Generally, I am a believer in receivers tied to Stafford, and you probably have at least two more weeks of Whittington and Atwell before Cooper Kupp returns and resumes his target domination.
Conclusion: Whittington and Atwell remain adds, but not for huge dollar amounts.
Minnesota Vikings
Jordan Addison 66%; Jalen Nailor 21%
Jordan Addison and Jalen Nailor essentially play the same position. They cannot coexist. Still, the WR2 for the Vikings continues to score (Nailor: TDs in Weeks 1-3; Addison TDs in Week 4). This is a valuable player in fantasy. Sleeper is showing Addison at 84% roster percentage, so he’s not likely to be someone you can add. But if you’ve been holding him, it’s clear he should be in consideration to be in your starting lineup.
Conclusion: Nailor is a drop; start the WR2 for the Vikings.
Green Bay Packers
Dontayvion Wicks 76%
Christian Watson’s injury paved the way for more Dontayvion Wicks. Just like last year, when given an opportunity, Wicks shines. He led the team in targets, despite not starting (although it should be noted that Watson left the game quite early), and scored twice.
There is a grain of salt here. Wicks only caught five of his 13 targets, but still, targets remain a talent statistic. I am optimistic anytime a player can lead a team in targets and be targeted more than 10 times.
Conclusion: Wicks is an add if Watson is set to miss time.
Kansas City Chiefs
Carson Steele 18%; Kareem Hunt 45%; Samaje Perine 40%
Oh boy, what a terrible game for Carson Steele, just when you started to feel comfortable about playing him.
Steele’s bad day started right off the bat. On the Chiefs’ first drive, he fumbled (his second touch). He would only touch the ball one more time, and he took a major backseat to Kareem Hunt, fresh off the practice squad.
Now, it should be noted that Steele started the game. He also got back into the game on the second drive, so he didn’t get the typical fumble punishment nonsense. Mahomes threw a pick on the second drive, but Steele offered good protection, so I don’t think he was demoted for pass protection failure. In fact, it was Perine who was protecting on the third drive when Mahomes was sacked.
Still, Steele was basically MIA after the interception. He played a few snaps on the first drive of the second half, but that was about it. I didn’t see any reports of an injury. I think Andy Reid just liked what he saw out of Kareem Hunt, plus the fumble didn’t do Carson Steele any favors. I can’t say for certain that Hunt is definitely the Chiefs’ main back, but it sure feels like a changing of the guard here. Between Reid’s history with Hunt and Hunt performing efficiently in his first game of 2024, the odds are certainly higher that Kareem Hunt is the main RB for the Chiefs moving forward. Perine will continue to have a role, so Hunt is probably a 55% player, especially given his age.
Conclusion: Carson Steele is not playable moving forward; add Kareem Hunt if available.
San Francisco 49ers
Jauan Jennings 57%
Deebo Samuel and George Kittle returned and played their typical allotment of snaps. So did Jauan Jennings, who went right back into his WR3 role.
Still, the residual effects of Jennings’ Week 3 statistical explosion continued into Week 4. Jennings actually led the team in targets and receiving yards. There might be some chemistry developing between Jennings and Brock Purdy. I don’t think I am ready to dump Jennings quite yet, especially while Aiyuk continues to sputter.
Conclusion: Hold Jauan Jennings.