Ride or Die: The Fantasy Footballers Predictions for Week 17
New name, same great segment. “Ride or Die” pits The Ballers against each other with three players to meet a certain number each week. Each Baller will pick the player to “Ride” or “Die” with the stat, similar to a “prop” bet.
Each week I will be here to recap where each of the Ballers took the wheel or gave a nice tuck and roll out of the vehicle for each one. Of course, I’ll weigh in as well and we’ll keep score throughout the season so you can see how smart I really am.
As always, let me know if you’re jumping in the passenger’s seat with me or think I’m driving the crazy train here or on Twitter: @KurtKnowsBest.
“Ride or Die” Scoreboard
It was a week to forget for the Ballers with only two correct predictions between the trio for Week 16. Most importantly, Jason maintained his season-long lead over Andy and Mike as we close in on the end of the regular season.
|Week 16 Ride or Die|
|Amari Cooper||8+ Fantasy Points||Ride||x|
|Jerick McKinnon||Top-15 RB||Die||x|
|Zay Jones||7+ Targets||x|
|2022 Overall||52% (25/48)||58% (28/48)||47% (21/45)||49% (22/45)|
Week 17 “Ride or Die”
To hear the full “Ride or Die” segment for this week, listen to the December 28 episode of the podcast: “Championship Week Worries + Underdog Tips, TNF Preview”
David Montgomery (CHI) at Detroit: Top-20 RB
Despite all the doubts coming into the season, David Montgomery has been the RB22 on the year and ended a four-game streak of being a top-24 back last week against Buffalo. Still, Montgomery has been a top-20 RB just five times this season, but three times in his last five weeks played.
Andy was the first to “Ride” on this prediction and I’ll hop in the passenger’s seat. Montgomery still saw plenty of opportunity after Khalil Herbert’s return with 16 carries and four targets in Week 16. The matchup with Detroit is tough with it being on the road, but the Lions have given up the second-most rushing TDs on the season, and that’s the best way to set an RB up for a top-20 finish.
Jason and Mike are each a “Die” on this prediction. The Big Shimmy sees Montgomery as a low-end RB2 and expressed concerns about Herbert getting worked back into the offense more. Mike echoed Jason’s concerns about Herbert taking enough work from Montgomery to keep him outside of the top 20.
Miles Sanders (PHI) vs New Orleans: 11+ Fantasy Points
The Philadelphia running game sputtered without Jalen Hurts in Week 16, managing just 87 total yards against the Cowboys. Specifically for Sanders, it’s been two brutally bad weeks in a row, combining for just 7.0 total points.
Jason is going to “Ride” with this prediction, arguing that the volume is still there for Sanders and pointing to the 21 rushing attempts from Week 15. I’ll join Jason in believing that the Eagles’ offense will lean into the running game with what’s been a great matchup for RBs over the past several weeks against New Orleans. In their last three games, the Saints’ defense has allowed five top-24 RB finishes.
Andy and Mike are both a “Die” on their belief in Sanders this week. The Fantasy Hitman couldn’t get over Sanders’ lack of concern for fantasy teams to believe he could produce without Jalen Hurts under center for the Eagles. Sanders has only scored more than 11 fantasy points in five games this season and hasn’t hit that mark in five of his last seven games.
Cam Akers (LAR) at LA Chargers: To score a TD
It’s been quite the turnaround season for Cam Akers in LA. After not finishing inside the top-24 RBs for the first 12 weeks, Akers has hit that mark four-straight games, including the overall RB1 finish for Week 16.
Andy and Jason are going to “Ride” with this prediction and I’ll join them. Akers has been used at a very high rate over the last four weeks, averaging 18 opportunities. More importantly, if the Rams get into the red zone, they’re looking to Akers. Since Week 13, Akers has 14 carries in the red zone, resulting in six rushing TDs.
Mike is the lone “Die” on trusting Akers this week after a late switch from Jason. Mr. Wright is pessimistic about how many scoring chances the Rams will actually have against the Chargers in this game. Even though the Chargers do give up plenty of yards on the ground, they’ve only given up four rushing TDs in their last six games.
|Week 17 Ride or Die|
|David Montgomery||Top-20 RB||Ride||Die||Die||Ride|
|Miles Sanders||11+ Fantasy Points||Die||Ride||Die||Ride|
|Cam Akers||To Score a TD||Ride||Ride||Die||Ride|
Kurt’s Bonus Picks
Due to some holiday travel, I missed Week 16 picks, so I’m updating from Week 15!
|Kurt Bonus Picks Week 15|
|Miles Sanders||15+ Fantasy Points||Ride|
|Isiah Pacheco||Top-15 RB||Die|
|Mike Williams||75+ Receiving Yards||Ride|
|2022 Overall||47% (21/45)|
Kenneth Walker III (SEA) vs NY Jets: To Score a TD
Since taking over the starting role for Seattle in Week 5, Kenneth Walker III has been a fantasy machine, finishing in the top 24 in eight of ten games played. Getting into the end zone has limited Walker’s high-end fantasy production as of late. Since Week 10, KW3 has only scored a TD in one game. In fact, Walker doesn’t have a single week that he’s finished higher than RB20 without scoring a TD.
The Jets’ defense has been solid against the run all year, only giving up 113 yards per game on the ground. In their last three games, New York’s defense has only given up two rushing TDs, and both of those were to QBs. The game script could favor Walker though. If the Seahawks and Jets get into a shootout, there should be chances for Walker to fall into the end zone.
That said, I’ll “Die” with this prediction.
CeeDee Lamb (DAL) at Tennessee: 100+ Receiving Yards
After a somewhat slow start to the season, CeeDee Lamb has been absolute fantasy football fire down the stretch. Since Week 10, Lamb has been a top-12 WR four times, including two WR1 overall finishes. What’s possibly more impressive has been the recent stretch of 100-yard games. In that same seven-game stretch, Lamb has topped 100 yards four different times and is averaging 93 yards per game.
Tennessee is circling the drain, especially when it comes to stopping the pass. In their last five games, Tennessee has allowed four receivers to top the 100-yard mark. The only concern for Lamb hitting 100 yards in this game would be the game script going against him and the Cowboys leaning on the running game heavily.
I’d expect Lamb to be highly involved in this game, so I’ll “Ride” with this prediction.
Christian Kirk (JAX) at Houston: Top-24 WR
It’s been a hot and cold few weeks for Christian Kirk while the Jaguars have fought their way back into the playoff picture. Since Week 11, Kirk has either been a top-24 WR or outside of the top-45 WRs every other week. If the pattern continues, Kirk is due to be a top-24 option for fantasy managers in championship week.
The first time Kirk played the Texans, it didn’t end well with just 1.6 fantasy points. What has to be encouraging for fantasy managers are the nearly nine targets and 70 yards per game Kirk has averaged since Week 7. If Kirk can find a way to get into the end zone for the first time in six games, he stands a good chance of hitting this line.
I’ll “Ride” with Kirk.
|Kurt Bonus Picks Week 17|
|Kenneth Walker III||To Score a TD||Die|
|CeeDee Lamb||100+ Receiving Yards||Ride|
|Christian Kirk||Top-24 WR||Ride|