Ride or Die: The Fantasy Footballers Predictions for Week 11
New name, same great segment. “Ride or Die” pits The Ballers against each other with three players to meet a certain number each week. Each Baller will pick the player to “Ride” or “Die” with the stat, similar to a “prop” bet.
Each week I will be here to recap where each of the Ballers took the wheel or gave a nice tuck and roll out of the vehicle for each one. Of course, I’ll weigh in as well and we’ll keep score throughout the season so you can see how smart I really am.
As always, let me know if you’re jumping in the passenger’s seat with me or think I’m driving the crazy train here or on Twitter: @KurtKnowsBest.
“Ride or Die” Scoreboard
On the back stretch of the regular season, Jason has a comfortable lead predicting correctly on 70% so far this season. Mike took the Week 10 trophy going 3-for-3. Jason and Andy tied with two correct, while I brought up the rear (per usual) with just one correct prediction.
Week 11 “Ride or Die”
To hear the “Ride or Die” segment for Week 11 in its entirety, listen to the November 16 episode of the podcast: “Playoff Primer + Strength of Schedule, League Winners”
|Week 10 Ride or Die Outcome|
|Juju Smith-Schuster||Top-15 Fantasy WR||Die||Die||Die|
|Devonta Smith||70+ Receiving Yards||Die||Die|
|Chris Godwin||12 Fantasy Points (Half-PPR)||Ride||Ride||Ride|
|47% (14/30)||70% (21/30)||53% (16/30)||43% (13/30)|
Chris Olave (NO) vs LA Rams: Top-16 WR
Chris Olave has been a great rookie for fantasy managers, with four straight finishes at WR16 or higher from Weeks 3 through 7. Since then, Olave has only finished inside the top 24 once with two finishes outside the top 36 WRs.
Andy was the first to “Die” on this prediction but flipped to a “Ride.” Our host didn’t flip due to any belief in the Saints’ offense, but more due to the large number of WRs that will be on bye this week.
Jason is a “Die” on this prediction, arguing that the Saints are spiraling as an offense, which will cap Olave’s ceiling. Mike joined The Big Shimmy, discouraged by the Saints’ continued belief in Andy Dalton as the starting QB. I’ll “Die” on this prediction as well until there are signs of life from the New Orleans offense.
Darnell Mooney (CHI) at Atlanta: 10+ Fantasy Points (Half-Point PPR)
After a rough start to the season, Darnell Mooney has been a much better fantasy option since the Bears’ offensive revival with Justin Fields. Since Fields started going nuclear, Mooney has averaged five receptions for 58 yards per game.
Mike was a quick “Ride” on this prediction and I’ll join The Hitman. Mooney is seeing plenty of snaps in an offense that has averaged 31 points over the past four weeks. Meanwhile, Mooney is seeing 26% of the team’s targets over that stretch. With the Atlanta defense giving up an average of 31 points to opposing fantasy WRs over the last four weeks, I like Mooney’s chances of getting into double-digits this week.
Andy and Jason are each a “Die” here. Jason believes that Mooney will need to get into the end zone to reach the 10-point mark and isn’t confident in that since Mooney’s only scored one TD this season. Andy confirmed his belief, guaranteeing a Chase Claypool TD in Week 11.
Kirk Cousins (MIN) vs Dallas: Top-17 QB
Originally this line was top-12, where Cousins has finished in five of nine games played this season, but the line was bargained down to top-17.
Mike was the ringleader to “Ride” the line down and roped in Andy to join him. The Cowboys’ defense has given up more points than expected in recent weeks. In fact, Dallas has given up a top-12 QB in three of their last four games.
Jason was the lone “Die” from the Ballers and I’ll be joining him on this prediction. Cousins has only finished outside the top 17 twice on the season, but each of those games came against a defense ranked inside the top 12, schedule adjusted against QBs. On the season, Cousins has faced just four defenses ranked in the top 12 against fantasy QBs and is averaging a QB18 finish in those matchups.[ffb_table]
|Week 11 Ride or Die|
|Chris Olave||Top-16 WR||Ride||Die||Die||Die|
|Darnell Mooney||10+ Fantasy Points||Die||Die||Ride||Ride|
|Kirk Cousins||Top-17 QB||Ride||Die||Ride||Die|
Kurt’s Bonus Picks
|Kurt Bonus Picks Week 10 Outcome|
|Cordarrelle Patterson||To Score a TD|
|Amon-Ra St. Brown||Top-24 WR||Ride|
|Miles Sanders||15+ Fantasy Points (Half-Point PPR)|
|2022 Overall||47% (14/30)|
Christian Watson (GB) vs Tennessee: 12+ Fantasy Points (Half-PPR)
The long-awaited boom game finally came for the Packers’ rookie in Week 10 with an overall WR2 finish after 107 receiving yards and three TDs. While it’s not logical to expect those types of games on a weekly basis, Christian Watson should have every opportunity to prove to fantasy managers he can consistently be a contributor in their lineups.
Tennessee presents a tougher matchup than meets the eye for fantasy WRs, ranking as the 7th most difficult on the season. However, the Titans are allowing the second most passing yards per game in the league and the sixth most passing TDs.
I’ll “Ride” with Watson on a successful follow-up week.
Michael Carter (NYJ) at New England: More Opportunities than James Robinson
A lot has changed in the backfield for the Jets since Week 7 when Breece Hall was lost for the season to injury and James Robinson was traded to New York. Fantasy managers have only seen the new-look Jets backfield twice, but Michael Carter has surprisingly been given more opportunities than Robinson over those two weeks.
The Jets played the Patriots in Week 8 and neither Carter nor Robinson was overly effective for fantasy purposes, but Carter was called upon in the passing game often with seven targets on the day. Based on how both New England and New York want to establish the run though, I’d expect the Jets to lean on Robinson between the tackles this week.
I’ll “Die” on this prediction.
Justin Herbert (LAC) vs Kansas City: Top-12 QB Finish
It’s been a shaky season for fantasy managers who invested in Justin Herbert. Through nine games, Herbert has only finished inside the top 12 QBs four times and has been outside of that mark in back-to-back weeks since the Chargers’ bye in Week 8.
Luckily, fantasy managers have seen Herbert take on this Chiefs team without Keenan Allen already this season and he finished as the QB9 on the week. If Mike Williams is back in the lineup for L.A., a little home cooking might be the recipe to get Herbert back into the top 12 for fantasy managers.
I’ll “Ride” with Herbert on this one.
|Kurt Bonus Picks Week 11|
|Christian Watson||12+ Fantasy Points (Half-Point PPR)||Ride|
|Michael Carter||More Opportunities than James Robinson||Die|
|Justin Herbert||Top-12 QB Finish||Ride|