Red Zone Report: Week 3 (Fantasy Football)
Welcome to the third Red Zone Report of 2024, where I dive into the important stats and information you need to know from 20 yards and in. Though we’ve still got two games ahead of us tonight, the first 14 games of Week 3 had plenty of valuable stats and trends to unpack.
Check out the Red Zone Report tool as part of the Ultimate Draft Kit to look at every player’s usage in the red zone, 10-zone, and five-zone.
We finally have a large enough sample size to effectively look at EPA in and out of the red zone over the course of the year, rather than week-to-week.
The Jets look to be the best overall offense, not only having high efficiency in the red zone but also getting there frequently. The Browns seem to be the most efficient red zone offense while strong offenses like the Cowboys and Lions have been struggling in close.
Rushers
This rusher efficiency graph below will use data from both in and out of the red zone due to a lack of sample size of red zone plays.
By no surprise, Saquon Barkley is playing efficient football behind the best line of his career. Understudies Braelon Allen and Emanuel Wilson are making their claims for more opportunities going forward. Let’s take a closer look at some of these players and others.
Jets Rushers
Jets rookie Braelon Allen has taken the league by storm with his impressive ability, despite being oversized in the opinion of some. Though he has nearly matched Breece Hall in touches and yardage in recent games, New York is still giving the ball to their number-one guy when it matters most. This week, Breece Hall got both of the Jets’ two carries inside the 10-yard line, taking the lone goal line rush in for a touchdown. Week 2 was more of the same, where Hall once again was the recipient of both carries inside the five. He took one of these rushes in for a touchdown as well. Braelon Allen has taken a sizable bite into the workload of Breece Hall but has not yet made an impact in getting valuable touches inside the 10. Through three weeks, Allen has 19 carries, while Hall has 47. I view Allen’s integration into the offense as more of a positive than a negative for Hall, as it decreases his injury risk, something that has plagued him in the past.
Packers Rushers
Green Bay poses a very similar situation to that of the Jets,’ with the relationship between Josh Jacobs and Emanuel Wilson. Wilson quickly became the number-two option for Green Bay after a hamstring injury sidelined rookie Marshawn Lloyd, who has since been placed on the IR. Though putting up 50 yards rushing to Jacobs’ 43 with an additional 30-yard receiving touchdown, Wilson wasn’t able to command any of the Packers’ four carries inside the 10. Especially with Malik Willis still filling in for the injured Jordan Love and taking goal line opportunities, I would not expect Wilson to get any serious red zone work any time soon. That being said, he can still be a flex option in a high-powered Packers offense that has often played in a favorable game script for the run thus far.
Chiefs Rushers
Isaiah Pacheco is out for six to eight weeks, which has sent the fantasy community into a frenzy over which player(s) will fill his void. Though Clyde Edwards-Helaire may be returning soon, it seems as if Carson Steele is the guy for now. Steele received six carries inside the red zone, including two from inside the five. He was unsuccessful in his attempts against a strong Atlanta defensive line. I think we’ll see similar usage inside the red zone as long as Pacheco and CEH are still out.
Receivers
Same as the previous graph, this receiving efficiency graph is made up of all plays — not just those from the red zone.
Jauan Jennings scored three touchdowns this week and was a massive part of a banged-up 49ers offense. Additionally, tight ends Dallas Goedert and Cole Kmet had nice days, finding themselves in close relation to the always-reliable Amon-Ra St. Brown. Let’s take a look at some of the more interesting receiving rooms from this week.
Giants Receivers
Giants rookie Malik Nabers was targeted twice in the red zone this week. He turned both of these opportunities into touchdowns and is the obvious choice no matter what part of the field the “G-men” find themselves in. Wan’Dale Robinson is another solid option for Daniel Jones in all parts of the field. He registered a touchdown last week from the seven-yard line and has scored over 10 PPR points every week thus far. It is very easy to feel pessimistic about the Giants’ offense, but let me assure you there is still plenty of fantasy opportunity to go around.
49ers Receivers
Deebo Samuel and George Kittle have cemented themselves as cornerstones of the San Francisco offense in recent years. However, in Week 3, Brock Purdy and the Niners were forced to figure it out without them. Jauan Jennings turned his team’s misfortune into a massive performance that yielded three touchdowns. In terms of red zone production, he received 50% of his team’s four targets inside the 20 and turned both opportunities into touchdowns. As one of the league’s most efficient receivers this week, Jauan Jennings should be a confident flex start as long as his team is still not at 100%. Should his red zone success continue, he could become a fantasy-relevant player even once his offensive teammates return to the gridiron.
Conclusion
Next week is the final week before bye weeks begin to impact our fantasy decisions and force us to reach further down the waiver wire. Make sure to check back next week for the most up-to-date information on the red zone and more!
For more insights and a full breakdown of red zone rush and target data, try using the Red Zone Report tool as part of the Ultimate Draft Kit