RB Fantasy Production: Pass-Catching Pros & Big-Bodied Bruisers
We’ve brought up this stat many times over the years on the Fantasy Footballers: A RB target is worth 2-2.5 times more than a rush attempt.
RB receiving work provides a weekly floor even if that RB doesn’t find the end zone. It also gives you ceiling outcomes in PPR leagues
On Monday’s Ready to Roll, we looked at how RBs are scoring fantasy points: % via the ground vs. % thru the air.
Let’s look at two groups of RBs and who is being inefficient or perhaps overachieving.
Pass-Catching Pros– RBs with 35+ % of their fantasy points coming
- Are they taking advantage of opportunities in the passing game? Negative game scripts?
- Are they inefficient with those targets? Is that a warning sign?
Big-Bodied Bruisers– RBs with 80+ % of their Production Coming on the Ground
- Is their competition for touches?
- Are they on a successful team with lots of red zone opportunities?
- Is the lack of passing work cause for concern?
Pass-Catching Pros
Rachaad White
Despite Bucky Irving eating into workload, he’s been solid. Over the last month, he is the RB8(!) averaging 16.6 fantasy points per game. The Bucs have lost four straight but he’s averaged 5 receptions per game. In the past, we’ve highlighted how vacated targets often give the RB position a boost. With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin out, White has a 15% target share over the last month. While he is still inefficient as a runner averaging 3.8 yards per carry on the season, White has morphed into an every week start thanks to his pass-catching role on a team that continues to play from behind.
Breece Hall
It’s been a frustrating experience for Hall managers this year. Beyond the Jets offensive issues, a new play caller + added competition for targets has changed his usage recently:
- Weeks 1-7: Averaged 4.6 receptions per game, 17% tgt share
- Weeks 8-10: 2.3 receptions per game, 12% tgt share
Hall no longer should be viewed among the elites at the position and instead looks more like a low-end RB1 knowing Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson soak up a ton of the passing volume.
Alvin Kamara
Despite seeing the highest snap percentage and opportunities per game of his career, Kamara is seeing the lowest percentage of his fantasy points come via the pass. He is under the league average this year in both fantasy points per rush attempt and fantasy points per target. The biggest concern is that the increased workload + age is causing major inefficiencies. He is still a top-5 RB based on opportunity alone but the question of him continuing this rest of season is worth bringing up.
Big-Bodied Bruisers
Derrick Henry
The Yeti somehow ranks #1 in fantasy points per rush and fantasy points per target among the top-36 RBs. That is an insane feat considering how many other RBs are involved in the passing game. Obviously, 12 targets is a small sample size but he’s been hyper efficient in his opportunities. You should have zero concerns despite heavy emphasis on the rush; he is an outlier and the Ravens should continue to put him in positive game scripts.
J.K. Dobbins
With Gus Edwards returning to eat into his workload, Dobbins should raise a couple of red flags. He hasn’t taken advantage of pass-catching opportunities ranking 35th out of 36 RBs in fantasy points per target. Edwards doubled the red zone opportunities of Dobbins although both of JK’s opportunities last week were rush attempts inside the five yard line. This offense likely will be a two-headed monster putting Dobbins’ best fantasy days behind him.
David Montgomery
Last year, 90 % of his fantasy points came via the ground and this year he is slightly behind that mark. Monty already has MORE receptions and receiving yards than last year and Jahmyr Gibbs‘ output (28 tgts for 22/202/1) isn’t that far ahead from where Monty is. Consider him a weekly top-15 RB with insane upside if Gibbs went down. He is one of the rare RBs who leans on the ground game but quietly possesses top-5 upside as a pass-catcher if an injury were to occur.
Complete List of Top-36 RBs by FPPG
