Predicting Top-24 WR Duos Using Team Points (Fantasy Football)
Most great teams have a duo of talented wide receivers in their ranks. Whether it’s a veteran alpha WR supported by a younger speedster, or a rookie quickly taking over the veteran’s job like Justin Jefferson did in his first year in the NFL, competitive teams tend to support a decent fantasy production for two wide receivers.
But how many of those duos are capable of producing enough fantasy points for both players to finish inside the top 24? In recent years, it’s even become common to see teams with two WRs finishing inside the top 12.
| Year | Team | WR1 | WR2 |
| 2022 | MIA | Tyreek Hill (WR3) | Jaylen Waddle (WR7) |
| 2022 | PHI | A.J. Brown (WR5) | Devonta Smith (WR10) |
| 2019 | TB | Chris Godwin (WR2) | Mike Evans (WR12) |
| 2018 | PIT | Antonio Brown (WR4) |
Juju Smith-Schuster (WR9) |
| 2018 | MIN | Adam Thielen (WR7) | Stefon Diggs (WR11) |
| 2016 | GB | Jordy Nelson (WR1) | Davante Adams (WR8) |
According to their current ADP, the fantasy world expects Jaylen Waddle and Devonta Smith to repeat a WR1 finish this season, but how predictable are these double finishes inside the top 24? What recent data can we crunch to build realistic expectations about which WR duos can repeat the feat and more importantly, which can become new members of this select group?
Great Teams Score a Lot of Fantasy Points at the WR Position
Let’s forget about players’ names for a moment and look at total fantasy points per team and position. When we split the fantasy points to see how many were scored by the WR position on each team, some interesting data starts coming to light.
More than 30% of the total points scored in the past two seasons belonged to the WR position. And the teams whose WR fantasy points share was significantly above that 30% mark were the ones who really excelled at the position. What can we find if we correlate these total points per team and position to the WR1 and WR2 finishes from each team in both seasons? Let’s see.
2021
| TEAM | WR FPTS | TOTAL FPTS | WR FPTS SHARE | WR1 FINISH |
WR2 FINISH
|
| LAR | 753.8 | 1,763.3 | 42.7% | 1 | 35 |
| TB | 665.5 | 1,941.7 | 34.3% | 8 | 17 |
| CIN | 627.5 | 1,725.8 | 36.4% | 5 | 22 |
| DAL | 626.4 | 1,902.0 | 32.9% | 18 | 27 |
| BUF | 617.7 | 1,787.5 | 34.6% | 7 | 47 |
| MIN | 614.1 | 1,641.0 | 37.4% | 4 | 67 |
| GB | 590.4 | 1,716.2 | 34.4% | 3 | 45 |
| LAC | 589.3 | 1,771.7 | 33.3% | 10 | 14 |
| ARI | 562.7 | 1,715.8 | 32.8% | 26 | 41 |
| SF | 555.4 | 1,557.6 | 35.7% | 2 | 30 |
| KC | 549.4 | 1,799.5 | 30.5% | 6 | 51 |
| SEA | 519.2 | 1,484.5 | 35.0% | 12 | 13 |
| LV | 493.0 | 1,531.8 | 32.2% | 11 | 64 |
| PIT | 492.3 | 1,451.0 | 33.9% | 9 | 37 |
| NYJ | 491.2 | 1,282.0 | 38.3% | 48 | 59 |
| JAX | 444.0 | 1,164.9 | 38.1% | 34 | 60 |
| DET | 442.0 | 1,355.5 | 32.6% | 21 | 54 |
| HOU | 438.2 | 1,230.7 | 35.6% | 20 | 87 |
| NE | 428.3 | 1,637.6 | 26.2% | 33 | 67 |
| IND | 418.6 | 1,559.5 | 26.8% | 15 | 76 |
| BAL | 417.5 | 1,545.7 | 27.0% | 23 | 57 |
| MIA | 416.9 | 1,407.2 | 29.6% | 16 | 69 |
| TEN | 415.7 | 1,515.8 | 27.4% | 32 | 65 |
| NO | 394.2 | 1,389.5 | 28.4% | 42 | 52 |
| CAR | 393.8 | 1,251.2 | 31.5% | 19 | 50 |
| WAS | 389.4 | 1,382.9 | 28.2% | 25 | 77 |
| CHI | 387.3 | 1,294.7 | 29.9% | 24 | 86 |
| DEN | 358.1 | 1,421.8 | 25.2% | 40 | 46 |
| PHI | 345.4 | 1,510.9 | 22.9% | 29 | 62 |
| NYG | 336.3 | 1,179.0 | 28.5% | 84 | 99 |
| CLE | 315.1 | 1,392.0 | 22.6% | 55 | 56 |
| ATL | 303.3 | 1,278.5 | 23.7% | 39 | 78 |
2022
| TEAM | WR FPTS | TOTAL FPTS | WR FPTS SHARE | WR1 FINISH |
WR2 FINISH
|
| MIA | 626.7 | 1,548.0 | 40.5% | 3 | 7 |
| MIN | 625.2 | 1,634.5 | 38.3% | 1 | 32 |
| CIN | 590.1 | 1,630.6 | 36.2% | 12 | 17 |
| TB | 579.6 | 1,528.6 | 37.9% | 16 | 20 |
| BUF | 575.1 | 1,654.7 | 34.8% | 4 | 27 |
| PHI | 559.2 | 1,718.9 | 32.5% | 5 | 10 |
| LAC | 520.9 | 1,607.6 | 32.4% | 31 | 41 |
| JAX | 514.2 | 1,572.3 | 32.7% | 11 | 26 |
| DET | 505.8 | 1,637.0 | 30.9% | 8 | 57 |
| WAS | 503.8 | 1,394.9 | 36.1% | 14 | 34 |
| LV | 499.7 | 1,493.5 | 33.5% | 2 | 93 |
| GB | 482.7 | 1,463.9 | 33.0% | 35 | 76 |
| SEA | 481.3 | 1,591.8 | 30.2% | 13 | 18 |
| ARI | 471.6 | 1,396.1 | 33.8% | 46 | 66 |
| KC | 458.4 | 1,881.7 | 24.4% | 29 | 53 |
| LAR | 457.2 | 1,258.2 | 36.3% | 24 | 86 |
| DAL | 450.4 | 1,648.8 | 27.3% | 6 | 68 |
| SF | 447.8 | 1,595.4 | 28.1% | 15 | 38 |
| NE | 431.7 | 1,411.5 | 30.6% | 28 | 65 |
| NO | 424.1 | 1,397.1 | 30.4% | 25 | 113 |
| IND | 422.7 | 1,317.1 | 32.1% | 23 | 48 |
| NYJ | 415.6 | 1,323.2 | 31.4% | 19 | 73 |
| DEN | 404.9 | 1,346.7 | 30.1% | 21 | 43 |
| NYG | 403.9 | 1,385.4 | 29.2% | 51 | 72 |
| CLE | 397.8 | 1,414.9 | 28.1% | 9 | 40 |
| CAR | 377.5 | 1,267.8 | 29.8% | 22 | 70 |
| PIT | 373.7 | 1,307.8 | 28.6% | 37 | 39 |
| HOU | 359.1 | 1,270.7 | 28.3% | 49 | 61 |
| ATL | 317.6 | 1,256.8 | 25.3% | 36 | 62 |
| CHI | 295.2 | 1,198.8 | 24.6% | 74 | 99 |
| TEN | 265.6 | 1,225.2 | 21.7% | 80 | 82 |
| BAL | 264.2 | 1,366.7 | 19.3% | 66 | 72 |
Takeaways
The key takeaway from these tables is that teams with over 1,500 total points and a WR points share higher than 34% had two WRs inside the top 24, except for three outliers: Philadelphia, Seattle, and Buffalo.
The Eagles are below the 34% line but their fantasy points total is way above every other team not named the Kansas City Chiefs, making their 32% more than enough to place two WRs not only among the top 24 but inside the elite WR1 territory. The Seahawks’ situation is more or less similar. In 2021 they failed to reach the 1,500 points mark by only 15.5, and in 2022 their total points were enough to compensate for a lower WR points share, so it makes sense that Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf managed to stay inside the top 24. The Bills are the opposite case, they scored high in both metrics but Gabe Davis finished outside the range. We’ll talk about them in a moment.
So let’s leave the tables aside and go back to players’ names to draw some useful conclusions from these findings.
What to Expect From Every Relevant WR Duo in 2023
Quick disclaimer: There are other wide receivers with top-24 potential that won’t appear on this list. The goal here is to cover the teams that match at least one of the two criteria presented above.
WR Mount Duolympus (See What I Did There?)
Miami Dolphins – Tyreek Hill & Jaylen Waddle
This might be the easiest no-brainer of all WR duos. Forget about the debate regarding Tua Tagovailoa‘s health. Of course, these two players need a competent QB throwing the ball to them. But no other WR corps claimed over 40% of their team’s total fantasy points. Their offensive scheme revolves around these guys. They both have a clear shot at finishing inside the top 12 again, as projected in Andy, Mike, and Jason’s 2023 WR Rankings.
Cincinnati Bengals – Ja’Marr Chase & Tee Higgins
Barring any injury, these two wide receivers have a clear path to finish inside the top 24 again. There are no major changes in the offense, Joe Burrow is the definition of a high-volume pocket passer, and the team is pretty high in both metrics (1,634.5 total fantasy points and 38.3% WR points share).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Mike Evans & Chris Godwin
If there’s a candidate to move out of Mount Duolympus, it would be the Bucs. The Bucs are facing a huge downgrade at QB. This might affect their total fantasy points. However, the WR points share should still be high, so it will all come down to Baker Mayfield and/or Kyle Trask’s ability to take advantage of these two wide receivers’ elite talent. At least one of them should remain inside the top 24.
The Exceptions That Prove The Rule
Philadelphia Eagles – A.J. Brown & Devonta Smith
This WR duo should belong in the first tier. As I said before, these two players are outliers in these metrics, simply because the team scored so many total fantasy points that they didn’t need a 34% WR points share mark to finish inside the top 12. I wouldn’t go as far as projecting them to be top 12 again, but they can easily finish that high this season.
Seattle Seahawks – DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett
The other outlier. These two players combine to make one of the most reliable forces in all of fantasy football. Can they both finish again inside the top 24? I’m not so sure. The team should maintain a high fantasy points total, but they have added pass-catching weapons to Geno Smith’s arsenal. Rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba should claim part of the WR points, and the position’s share could also be diminished with the addition of a pass-catching expert such as rookie RB Zach Charbonnet. So even though Tyler Lockett has never shown signs of decay, there’s a realistic chance this is the year he finishes outside the top 24.
Opportunities To Potentially Strike Fantasy Gold
Minnesota Vikings – Justin Jefferson & Jordan Addison
The rookie wide receiver most likely to finish inside the top 24 in 2023 is definitely Jordan Addison. The Vikings scored more than 1,600 total fantasy points, with an outstanding 38.3% WR points share. Adam Thielen is out of the picture, so opportunity is knocking on Jordan Addison’s door to join the top 24 WR club.
Buffalo Bills – Stefon Diggs & Gabe Davis
The Bills were also among the highest scorers with 1,654.7 total fantasy points. Their WR points share is above 34% but only Stefon Diggs finished inside the top 24. Gabe Davis didn’t live up to the hype last year and the team added more weapons in free agency with Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty. They also invested high draft capital in rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid. So despite their high score in both metrics, I wouldn’t expect them to have two top-24 WRs.
Los Angeles Chargers – Keenan Allen & Mike Williams
I’ve already talked about Keenan Allen’s chances of finishing inside the top 12 in this article from the Path to a WR1 Fantasy Football Season Series. Their WR points share is below the 34% mark, but their 1,607.6 total points are enough to balance the metrics. Last season, both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams missed some time and finished outside the top 24, but with new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore in town, both WRs have a legitimate shot at finishing inside the range.
Detroit Lions – Amon-Ra St. Brown & Jameson Williams
A 30.9% WR points share might not look like much. But with 1,637.0 total fantasy points, these two wide receivers could have had a serious opportunity to finish both inside the top 24 in 2023. Sadly, that opportunity went down the drain when Jameson Williams got suspended for gambling. The WR2 role will be passed around during the season, so it’s safe to say that only Amon-Ra St. Brown will finish inside the top 24.
Washington Commanders – Terry McLaurin & Jahan Dotson
The Commanders’ offense has shown to be a mystery this offseason, but it should be a little more productive than last year. If they can increase the total fantasy points a little, their 36.1% WR points share could easily support two top 24 wide receivers. It will all come down to Sam Howell, but the buzz from scouts has been good so far. He seems to have the starter job secured. If Howell can move this offense decently, Jahan Dotson has the first-round draft pedigree that usually produces sophomore-season WR breakouts. That’s why he is Andy’s early breakout pick and a potential top-24 WR.
Dallas Cowboys – CeeDee Lamb & Brandin Cooks
CeeDee Lamb is great. The Cowboys have more than enough total fantasy points to support a great cast of fantasy-viable players. But they’re too focused on establishing the run. Only 27.3% of those points went to the WR last season. This might change with the arrival of Brandin Cooks. When Amari Cooper was on the roster, the WR points share was 32.9%. If they’re able to go back to a similar split, we might see a top-24 WR duo in Dallas.
San Francisco 49ers – Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk
Brandon Aiyuk finished as the WR15 last season. Deebo was the WR2 the previous year. But can they both finish inside the top 24 in the same season? Their total fantasy points are close to 1,600, so just like the Cowboys if they’re able to get the WR points share closer to 32%, there might be enough points for them both to enter the top 24 WR duo conversation.
This covers the most explosive WR duos in the NFL according to the total fantasy points per team and the WR points share. What do you think? Is there another duo that should be in consideration for a double top-24 finish?
Comments
Davante Adams and Jacoby Meyers I’d say have a shot with the departure of Waller and potential that Jacobs sits the year.
Ridley and Kirk are another duo that comes to mind… certainly think chances are higher with TLaw tossing the rock than the Washington duo.
Great information. Thanks!