NFL Week 15 Weather Conditions (Fantasy Football)

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The good news is, the weather looks mostly good aside from some very cold games to kickoff playoffs for most leagues. There will be some weather issues in Buffalo, but it’s probably not as bad as you think. A snow storm will hit the area around Highmark Stadium, but the worst of the snow will have passed before game time. This is still a weather scenario that requires close tracking because the area near the stadium is susceptible to snow bands that can bring heavily concentrated snow in very small areas.

Any updates to the forecasts will be posted and here on twitter immediately below and so check back in leading up to kickoff.

Updates:

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears
Update: Temperatures are going to be higher than expected at a whopping 21° along with 13 mph sustained winds. While very cold, there shouldn’t be any fantasy impact.

Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (Monday Night)
Update: Temperature is expected to be 23° with a light breeze. There is some snow now in the forecast, but it should only be light. No fantasy impact.

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 17th, 2022

Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (Dome)

1:00 PM ET // U.S. Bank Stadium // Minneapolis, Minnesota

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

4:30 PM ET // FirstEnergy Stadium // Cleveland, Ohio

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Temp: 32°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 14 mph
Wind Gusts: 18 mph

Fantasy Impact: None

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

8:15 PM ET // Highmark Stadium // Orchard Park, New York

Temp: 27°
Precipitation: Snow
Wind: 12 mph
Wind Gusts: 24 mph

Fantasy Impact: This is where coming from Buffalo comes in handy because the area near the stadium has it’s own microclimate. While you might see crazy snowfalls near the stadium like a few weeks ago, the snowfall hitting the rest of Buffalo can be far less or even negligible. It’s just that Highmark Stadium’s location in Orchard Park puts it directly in a path where cold air picks up moisture from Lake Erie and dumps it in a very narrow area.

It will snow during the game, but probably not as much as you expect. A lot of the news has been very misleading with most reports show a snowstorm that carries 8-12″ of snow. There will be a storm that hits on gameday, but those snow totals are accumulations over long periods of time leading up to the game. The snow band that creates the storm should shift south in the hours leading up to kickoff. There is a CMA caveat that snow bands are unpredictable and can wreak havoc with minor variations in conditions, but we’re probably looking at .5-2″ of snow during the actual game. This will likely look like slush or a light blanket of snow on the field as opposed to several inches of snow.

Snow accumulation predictions are really tricky in this case since a lot of it depends on how much accumulates before the game, how the artificial turf absorbs the snow, and the rate of snow fall immediately before and during the game. A lot of snow on the ground will create slippery conditions that actually benefits the offense. Defenders must make quick cuts to react to what ball carriers and route runners are doing, which becomes all but impossible if the field has a thick coating of snow on it. If you want to take a stroll down memory lane for an example of what heavy snow looks like in a game, check out this 2017 game featuring Nathan Peterman, Frank Gore, and a promising rookie Marlon Mack with about 6″ of snow on the field. It’s far more likely we see slushy conditions or a light coating of snow on the field with traction pretty similar to what you would might see from a heavy rainfall.

The larger issue may be the frigid temperatures combined with wet conditions and a stiff breeze. These will likely be the most miserable conditions Tua Tagovailoa has ever played in. He’s only played in two NFL games with temperatures below 40° with mixed results. He averaged a healthy 283 yards passing/game, but also owns a meager 55% completion rate and one TD compared to four interceptions in those previous two matchups. Luckily, you couldn’t design a better offense for a game in these conditions where Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle can tack on significant yardage after a short pass. Miami will likely try to push a run-heavy script early with some combination of Raheem Mostert and a questionable Jeff Wilson Jr. given Tua’s recent struggles, the weather, and the Bills defense, but Miami’s aerial attack isn’t necessarily the non-starter people might think. Tua might be a very risky start, but Hill and Waddle are still playable but their production may depend entirely on their ability to break a large gain or two.

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At this point, Josh Allen has plenty of experience with 15 games played in cold-weather conditions (not including college) and we’ve seen him overcome conditions worse than this already. Allen’s yards per pass attempt fall significantly to 6.4 yards/attempt in cold weather games and that corresponds to an average of only 213 yards passing/game, but his rushing pops up to over 50 yards/game combined with seven rushing TDs in those games. He’s simply weather proof from a fantasy standpoint. This obviously doesn’t play well towards Stefon Diggs, but he’s still a must start. Any other receiving options for the Bills should be left on the bench. The Bills have also been employing an annoyingly unpredictable RBBC with an oscillating split between Devin Singletary and James Cook. Given conditions that are likely to be cold and slippery making ball security tricky, I’d lean towards Singletary as the choice start if forced to choose between the two.

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 18th, 2022

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears

1:00 PM ET // Soldier Field // Chicago, Illinois

Temp: 10°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 15 mph
Wind Gusts: 28 mph

Fantasy Impact: None

Detroit Lions at New York Jets

1:00 PM ET // MetLife Stadium // East Rutherford, New Jersey

Temp: 34°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 10 mph
Wind Gusts: 13 mph

Fantasy Impact: None

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers

1:00 PM ET // Bank of America Stadium // Charlotte, North Carolina

Temp: 41°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 9 mph
Wind Gusts: 16 mph

Fantasy Impact: None

Dallas Cowboys at Jacksonville Jaguars

1:00 PM ET // TIAA Bank Field // Jacksonville, Florida

Temp: 55°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 7 mph
Wind Gusts: 12 mph

Fantasy Impact: None

Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos

4:05 PM ET // Empower Field At Mile High // Denver, Colorado

Temp: 41°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 7 mph
Wind Gusts: 8 mph

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Fantasy Impact: None

Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

4:25 PM ET // Raymond James Stadium // Tampa, Florida

Temp: 66°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 9 mph
Wind Gusts: 12 mph

Fantasy Impact: None

New York Giants at Washington Commanders

8:20 PM ET // FedEx Field // Landover, Maryland

Temp: 30°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 9 mph
Wind Gusts: 23 mph

Fantasy Impact: None

MONDAY, DECEMBER 19th, 2022

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Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers

8:15 PM ET // Lambeau Field // Green Bay, Wisconsin

Temp: 16°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 5 mph
Wind Gusts: 8 mph

Fantasy Impact: None

DOME GAMES

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Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans

1:00 PM ET // NRG Stadium // Houston, Texas

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

1:00 PM ET // Caesers Superdome // New Orleans, Louisiana

New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders

4:05 PM ET // Allegiant Stadium // Paradise, Nevada

Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers

4:25 PM ET // SoFi Stadium // Los Angeles, California

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Comments

Mr_Mojo_Risin says:

So don’t play Tyler Bass? Asking for a friend :D

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