NFL Team Performance Trends: Week 16 (Fantasy Football)
For those who still remain, happy playoff season! In this article, I will break down some team performance trends and insights, followed by some player insights near the end. Let’s check out the rankings.
Offensive Takeaways
Nobody is hotter than the Buffalo Bills—averaging a 0.16 EPA/play on offense, it’s time to hop on that Bills bandwagon! They play the Patriots in Week 16, so look for some strong performances, but don’t expect a boat race like we’ve seen the last few weeks. The Pats’ offense has been poor with a -0.06 EPA/play this season, so this game is unlikely to be as high-scoring as recent Bills bouts.
The Lions are cruising offensively, and coming off a five-TD week from Jared Goff. David Montgomery has been ruled out for the season, making Jahmyr Gibbs the lead back in Detroit—look for a boost in fantasy production and opportunity for him.
The Chiefs have truly struggled in recent weeks, with their cumulative offensive EPA total tumbling below zero. They face Houston in Week 16, who post a 0.04 EPA/play defensively, so don’t expect a huge bounce-back from Kansas City in Week 16.
The Cardinals are trending in the right direction offensively, at the perfect time. Kyler Murray‘s fantasy production was poor last week, but they take on the Panthers in Week 16, giving him a chance to score big numbers. Coming off a 30-point week against New England, expect big things from this Arizona offense.
The Broncos’ offense has taken a negative turn—their cumulative EPA offensively has fallen below zero, indicating a severe cold streak in play. Even their EPA/play on the year is low, at -0.01. Bo Nix has thrown five interceptions in their last two matchups, however, Denver was bailed out through the blessing of weaker opponents in the Browns and Colts. Look for them to struggle in Week 16 against the Chargers.
The Cowboys have gotten hot offensively, as their cumulative EPA chart shows a hot streak—look for them to put up big numbers against a weaker Tampa Bay defense in Week 16.
The Jets, Ravens, Bucs, Bengals, and Packers are all teams that are getting hot offensively at the right time for fantasy playoffs as well (via cumulative EPA chart).
Defensive Takeaways
While most fantasy apps are showing the Chargers’ defense as having a bad matchup, the Broncos have been playing poorly on offense as of late, being very turnover-prone. The Ballers have the Chargers at #10 on the week, so don’t be afraid to start them.
The Colts’ defense has been on a hot streak (via the cumulative EPA chart), and faces the third-worst offense in the league via EPA/play in Week 16 (the Titans). Look to start Indianapolis if you can.
The Broncos’ defense has been flying around recently as well; as they face a shaky LAC team in Week 16, play them in what gears up to be a defensive battle.
The Lions’ defense, due mainly to injury, has struggled immensely in recent weeks. While they face the Bears in Week 16, it wouldn’t be surprising if this one ends up being a close shoot-out. Look to give your Bears players a shot in Week 16, and stay away from starting the Detroit defense.
The Falcons have been great defensively, shooting high above the zero EPA line for cumulative EPA. They face the Giants in Week 16, giving them a shot to put up some monster numbers. The Ballers have them ranked as the number-three defense on the week.
Be wary of the Chiefs/Texans matchup becoming a defensive battle—both teams have been getting better on defense if we look at their cumulative EPA charts.
*Below find the cumulative EPA chart.
*Below find the EPA rankings (arranged by offensive EPA/play).
This week I’ve also put together a table showing each defense and their performance against every position group in fantasy. Every column shows the average points allowed per touch to the given position—the higher the better (for fantasy owners). These numbers are for the last five games of the season, not the entire season.
Some quick takeaways:
Jerome Ford could be a must-start against Cincy this week, who allowed 1.13 points per touch vs. RBs in the last five games.
Jakobi Meyers is in for a treat against the Jaguars, who have allowed 3.18 points per touch to receivers in their last five.
New England has been generous to QBs in the last five matchups, but not so much to RBs. It might not be James Cook‘s week to shine again in Week 16.
The Bears, Bills, Bengals, Jaguars, and Giants defenses are open on every front—fire away!
To wrap up, let’s look at some player profiles.
Player Profiles
Jalen McMillan: The rookie has been sensational as of late, scoring three TDs in the last two weeks. However, his EPA/play has been low on the season, indicating that owners should be wary of playing him if they have a better option.
Isiah Pacheco: Pacheco has been underwhelming since his return with KC, and overall this season, with a -0.1 EPA/play. Facing a strong Houston defense this week, he may not be the best RB option.
Jerry Jeudy: Jeudy has been incredible this season in a Browns uniform, putting up very efficient numbers, especially when Jameis Winston was at the helm. He is a great flex option for the fantasy playoffs if you have him.
Tony Pollard: Pollard has been seeing a lot of touches commanding the Tennessee backfield, but hasn’t been a great producer, posting a -0.11 EPA/play this season. If you have alternate options, go with them.
That’s all for this week, good luck in the playoffs!