NFL Team Performance Trends: Week 14 (Fantasy Football)
In this article, I will break down NFL team performances going into Week 14 based on their expected points added (EPA) per play on both offense and defense. Let’s jump right into things.
Offensive Takeaways
The Steelers face the Browns in Week 14 for a divisional rematch—while Pittsburgh’s offense has picked up in recent weeks, ranking 11th in EPA/play, look for there to be a lot of scoring in this one.
The Vikings are one of the mediocre-performing teams in the league—looking at their cumulative EPA stats, specifically offensively, we get an explanation for some of the inconsistent play from Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson, and Aaron Jones. Week in and out they may have some struggles, but expect solid performances in Week 14 against a struggling Falcons defense.
The Packers are skyrocketing offensively in terms of cumulative EPA. They rank sixth in the league in EPA/play on offense as well, but take on a Lions squad that’s allowed only six points in two of their last three games. While your Packers players are hot, it might be time to rest them if you have other fantasy options.
The 49ers’ offense is on a heavy decline. Down to 0.01 EPA/play, their unhealthy George Kittle and now re-injured Christian McCaffrey are catching up to them. It might be best to avoid your San Fran options moving forward.
The Commanders seem to be back on track after a big Week 13 win—they get to rest due to a bye week and then return to play against the Saints, just in time for fantasy playoffs. This is great news for Terry McLaurin and Jayden Daniels managers.
Other teams that seem to be heating up heading into playoffs are the Denver Broncos, Miami Dolphins (slowly, but surely), Los Angeles Rams, and maybe even the Dallas Cowboys (see the cumulative EPA chart for reference)!
Defensive Takeaways
The Saints’ defense has performed slightly above average this season (0.01 EPA/play), and faces the Giants in Week 14, who have fallen apart offensively. The Ballers have them as the third-best defense this week, look to pick them up!
The Buccaneers are the fifth-ranked defense by the Ballers in Week 14 and have really picked up their play in recent outings, looking at their cumulative EPA defensively. Look to grab them as they face the Raiders.
While the Chiefs’ defense has been neutral this season with a 0.0 EPA/play, they face a struggling Chargers offense without lead RB JK Dobbins in Week 14. The Ballers have them ranked seventh on the week; look to stream them if possible.
The Titans’ defense is another team that has been just below average defensively this year with a -0.02 EPA/play, but get to face the Jaguars in Week 14, which should be a treat for the Tennessee secondary, as they face Mac Jones subbing in for the injured Trevor Lawrence. The Ballers have them as the ninth defense this week, so look to grab them if you can.
*See below the cumulative offense and defense trends for each team this season
*See below the EPA/play rankings for each team (ranking by offense)
To finish, let’s take a look at some player profiles.
Player Profiles
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: NWI has been red-hot in recent weeks, with eight TDs in seven weeks. His efficiency is through the roof, and likely won’t last, but it’s worth a shot to start him if you need some boom potential in your flex.
Jordan Addison: Addison has been great lately, as Justin Jefferson has cooled off—his production is very efficient, making him another strong flex option.
Bucky Irving: It’s safe to say Irving has won the role as the starter in Tampa Bay. Even with an increase in volume, his production has stayed high, so don’t miss the chance to start him if you can.
That’s all for this week’s article! Keep an eye out next week for more team performance trends and insights!