NFC East Divisional Podcast Recap for 2024 (Fantasy Football)
The Ballers continue their journey through the NFL divisions, finishing the AFC and starting on the NFC last week. They are in their third division, the NFC East.
This division had to be one of the most interesting divisions last year. The NFC East had the largest point differential between first and second-place teams at 189 points. However, the two teams were separated by only one win. The Cowboys were blowing people away all season. Meanwhile, the Eagles started the year looking like the team that made it to the Super Bowl two years ago and then won some very close games in the middle of the year before going completely belly up in the back half of the season, managing to go 8-3 in one-score games. The difference between the two teams was massive, even though the final records were very similar.
The division also did a bit of a Yankee Swap this year, seeing players and coaches go to new teams in the division: Saquon Barkley leaving the Giants for Philadelphia, Dan Quinn moving from defensive coordinator for the Cowboys to head coach of Washington, Kellen Moore, the former offensive coordinator for Dallas, coming back to the NFC East to be the OC in Philadelphia, and former Eagle TE Zach Ertz joining Washington. That kind of turnover within a division will make for some fun storylines this season.
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Let’s Get Divisional – NFC East
Dallas Cowboys (12-5)
Player Additions: RB Ezekiel Elliott
Player Subtractions: RB Tony Pollard, WR Michael Gallup
Rookies: WR Ryan Flournoy
According to Warren Sharp, the Cowboys project to win one more game this year than they were projected last year, despite having the 10th most challenging schedule in the NFL. The Cowboys led the league in scoring last year, which led plenty of managers to championships. From Weeks 8-18, Dallas was number one in points per game, fourth in plays per game, eighth in passing percentage, third in red zone plays, and sixth in red zone touchdown rate. Fifty percent of their drives resulted in scores, which was also first in the NFL. They stayed very healthy all year, which led to this success on the field and the success of fantasy managers.
That occurred after the team said goodbye to their OC, Kellen Moore, who went to the Chargers. There was a fear that the team would become run-heavy and that the passing game would evaporate. Which it somewhat did! In Weeks 1-6, before the bye week, Dallas was 4-2 and ranked 27th in passing percentage. Then the bye week happened, and the team changed philosophies, which worked incredibly well.
For fantasy purposes, Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb were fantastic, but Tony Pollard was not. Pollard, one of the most hyped players of last offseason, did not meet expectations. He struggled to score touchdowns in the red zone and ranked dead last in fantasy points per touch last year among all RBs.
There are not many changes with this team besides bringing Ezekiel Elliott back into the fold and Michael Gallup retiring. The front office for Dallas has to figure out the contract situation for the big-name players on the team, but outside of that, the team has strong stability going from last year to this year.
They have a QB they can trust and an elite WR for him to work with. The running game wasn’t great last year, but it looks similar this year. The only difference in the backfield is Zeke, who is still an excellent red zone threat, so the team could go back to trying to run the ball in the red zone, which could hurt Dak’s ceiling some weeks. The offense will still need to throw the ball quite a bit because older Zeke and Rico Dowdle will not be able to grind games out for the Cowboys. That makes Dak and CeeDee very safe and high-upside players.
The only thing going for Zeke and Dowdle is that they are both being left for dead in fantasy drafts while still being on an elite offense. If one of them were to become a true workhorse and a goal-line threat, you could find gold at the end of the draft. Which one should you be drafting? Zeke was dead last at 2.6% in explosive rush rate, or when a run turns into a carry of 15 yards or more. Dowdle is 26 years old and has seen very little work in his NFL career. So, neither option stands out, but one of them will be valuable.
Brandin Cooks and Jake Ferguson are the only players outside of CeeDee Lamb who are real pass-catching options for the offense. Cooks had a good game or two last year, and he scored eight times. However, in the eight games he didn’t catch a touchdown, Cooks scored 26 fantasy points combined. It was the definition of okay or bust. He could be a good depth piece, but you might have difficulty figuring out when to play him. With Cooks drafted as the WR64, you won’t have to take him as a crucial player, and he is a great band-aid if you get in the weeds with bye weeks or injuries.
Jake Ferguson was fun last year, leading all TEs in red zone targets with 25. He also had the second most targets on the Cowboys last year with 102 targets. Ferguson is a solid later-round TE for fantasy. He is currently the TE11, and you know he will give you plenty of touchdown catches.
Of course, CeeDee Lamb is a superstar, and at the top of your drafts, if you want to take Lamb you should have no problem doing that. He is currently the WR1 in drafts and being drafted with the second overall pick. If you want to go with him, there is no reason you should worry.
Last year, Mike gave the brilliant advice to go get Dak or try and trade for CeeDee after Week 6 because the schedule looked great. This year, the season starts interestingly. There is a challenging game in Cleveland in Week 1, but then Dallas faces New Orleans at home, Baltimore at home, travels to the Giants, travels to Pittsburgh, and finally has Detroit at home. Dallas is the favored team in five straight games before their Week 6 bye. However, the defenses they face outside the Giants and Pittsburgh are pretty good. So the scoring could be up and down to start.
Dak is going as the QB9 currently, which is behind all of the Ballers’ rankings of him, and all three would be happy to walk out of their draft with Dak on their roster this year. He isn’t necessarily a target for any of them going into the draft unless they take CeeDee and want to get the stack. He has been one of the most consistent fantasy scorers in fantasy football for the last three years, so you feel good walking out of a draft with him as your QB.
Vegas predicts 10.5 wins for Dallas this season.
Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)
Player Additions: RB Saquon Barkley, QB Kenny Pickett, WR Parris Campbell
Player Subtractions: RB D’Andre Swift, RB Boston Scott, WR Julio Jones, WR Quez Watkins, C Jason Kelce (tush-push)
Rookies: RB Will Shipley, WR Ainias Smith, WR Johnny Wilson
Last year was the tale of two seasons for the Eagles. They were 10-1, third in points per game, fourth in plays per game, fifth in run percentage, 28th in pass percentage, and fifth in 10-zone plays. Then, from Weeks 13-18, they were 20th in points per game, 18th in plays per game, 18th in run percentage, 15th in pass percentage, and 26th in 10-zone plays. The team collapsed, utterly and completely.
Head Coach Nick Sirianni and his QB Jalen Hurts seemed to have a complete disconnect last year, and their relationship grew strained, according to an interview with Dianna Russini. This year, the Eagles have a new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore, and the expectation is that Nick Sirianni will no longer be calling the plays; he will be more of a CEO head coach. If the team struggles, will Sirianni be able to resist the urge to jump in and try to fix everything himself?
Kellen Moore is one of the offensive coordinators that fantasy managers have loved, but he is now on his third team in three years. Dallas moved on from him despite tons of success, and last year with the Chargers, it was uninspiring, primarily due to injuries, but still not a high-powered offense. The weapons in the offense make for arguably the best team in the NFL, and the offense should be successful under Moore.
The positional values within the Moore systems did translate from Dallas to L.A., with the player in the slot position being the most valuable receiver. In Dallas, that was CeeDee Lamb, and in L.A., it was Keenan Allen. Watching for who is taking motion position snaps should be one of the biggest things for fantasy managers to watch this offseason because this system tends to hyper-target that player.
Last year, the Eagles used pre-snap motion in 11% of their plays, which was the lowest rate in the NFL. For perspective, A.J. Brown, who ranked fifth in receiving yards last year with 1,456, had fewer receiving yards on plays with pre-snap motion (221) than TE Jonnu Smith (224). The offense was incredibly predictable, and when teams figured it out, it broke the offense altogether. Meanwhile, the Chargers were eighth in the NFL in pre-snap motion, even with all the injuries to their key players. The teams with elite offenses use motion constantly, looking no further than Miami, San Francisco, or the L.A. Rams.
Saquon is an interesting player to figure out because he left a team that floundered away last year and had an awful offensive line. He now joins a high-powered offense with one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Everyone has talked about the value of the tush-push this season and that Jalen Hurts will vulture touchdowns from his RB because he will sneak the ball into the end zone, and that probably won’t happen for Saquon from the one-yard line. However, D’andre Swift had plenty of carries inside the five-yard line and struggled to get the ball into the end zone. Saquon will have plenty of chances to finish those runs with scores that could elevate him in fantasy scoring. Saquon, the RB6, has a high price, but he is still a good pass catcher, and the offense should be good enough to return on the investment.
There are a few questions about the offensive pieces for fantasy; they are all drafted as top options in their positions, except for TE Dallas Goedert. It feels like the ship has sailed for him to make the leap into the upper tier of TEs. He is a reliable streaming candidate, and in the right matchups, he can deliver. However, the upside for him as your weekly starter is limited because of the amount of talent around him and the way the passing game will focus on A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
The fantasy world believes Brown is the clear WR1 for the team. So the question becomes, who is that number two guy? The offense has been good enough that the second option has been valuable. Two years ago, Smith had 95 receptions, 1,196 yards, and seven touchdowns and then the following year had 81 receptions, 1,066 yards, and seven touchdowns. Smith could also become the motion player for the Eagles, and he could show his ceiling in that position. In college, DeVonta Smith was used in the slot quite a bit at Alabama and was good enough at that position to win the Heisman Trophy. In that year, he averaged 5.54 yards per route run. His draft cost is also reasonably safe this year as the WR22. He was over-drafted last year in the second round, but this season, he seems to be at a much safer cost with a massive upside, especially if any of the other pass catchers miss time, which is when Smith bloomed as a fantasy producer.
Jalen Hurts is excellent; he finished in the top 12 14 times last year and already ranks fifth all-time in rushing touchdowns by a QB in just 62 games. Since becoming the starter, he has been averaging 10+ fantasy points per game just as a runner. For context, Christian McCaffrey averaged 11.5 fantasy points per game in that same span. Hurts breaks fantasy when he plays well, and despite the cost at QB2, he is well worth the draft position.
The Eagles have the ninth most manageable schedule according to Warren Sharp and start the year with a four-game stretch of Green Bay, Atlanta, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay. There could be a hot start there for the team, which they desperately need so they can move on from last year and get the stink of the collapse off their backs.
Vegas predicts 10.5 wins for Philadelphia this season.
New York Giants (6-11)
Player Additions: RB Devin Singletary, QB Drew Lock, WR Allen Robinson II
Player Subtractions: RB Saquon Barkley, RB Matt Breida, TE Darren Waller, WR Parris Campbell, WR Sterling Shepard, QB Tyrod Taylor
Rookies: WR Malik Nabers, TE Theo Johnson, RB Tyrone Tracy Jr.
The season started badly with the team going 1-5 to start, and then they improved slightly, going 5-6 over the back half of the year. The offense was not very good, nor was it fun to watch last year. They ranked 16th in pace of play, 29th in points per game, 29th in total yards, and 31st in pass yards. Then they let the one good player on the team, Saquon Barkley, take his talents to their division rival, the Eagles.
They spent high draft capital on Malik Nabers, who everyone in fantasy is excited to see. However, the offensive line will have to improve for the passing game to get better. Daniel Jones was sacked 30 times last year in six starts, and Tommy DeVito was even worse, being sacked 37 times in six starts. The passing game was horrendous last year, and they struggled to start games well. They have ranked 32nd, 28th, and 32nd in first quarter scoring the previous three years. As much excitement as there is for Nabers, the passing game will have to improve with Daniel Jones for Nabers to reach his potential.
This draft will forever link Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison Jr., and the comparison between the two will be an exciting story throughout their careers. Many people saw Harrison as an abuse-proof player, and for Nabers, plenty of GMs liked him more for their teams and offenses. Nabers, the WR20, has the second-highest rookie ADP ever, tied with Amari Cooper. He can line up all over the field and is genuinely elite. The depth chart for the Giants isn’t screaming for a high distribution of targets to the other WRs around Nabers.
The Ballers still don’t believe the Giants will be any good, and the issue that presents is that out of all the rookie WRs in the last decade to play on a bottom-10 passing yards per game offense only one finished as a top-30 WR. Mike Evans did that in 2014 as the WR12, and he managed it by catching 12 touchdowns. Can Nabers do something similar? He has the talent and the ability, but Daniel Jones could cap his potential. The hope for Jones is that he has never had a player of this caliber of talent to play with in his career. So, there is a chance that if Nabers is the player everyone thinks he is, and Daniel Jones is able to rise up to help his pass catcher out, then the offense probably won’t finish as a bottom-10 passing offense.
For Giants fans, this will be a defining season for Daniel Jones; the team spent much of the offseason talking a big game about getting him a weapon and improving the offensive line. In some eyes, the line improved from 30th to 29th, and according to Warren Sharp, they rank 32nd.
The team brought in a new RB, Devin Singletary. Singletary is familiar with Brian Daboll’s system, having played in Buffalo under Daboll and he had a decent season last year with the Texans. He averaged 19.6 opportunities from Week 9 to the end of the season last year and proved that he could hold up as the workhorse back for a team. Singletary, the RB33, should outproduce his ADP even if he is an average running back, making him a great target if you go hero-RB or zero-RB in your fantasy draft this year. He is a starting RB, and if the offense improves, Singletary should be decent for fantasy this season. He was the RB that the team wanted to add to the team.
Even though Singletary is not the caliber of RB that Saquon is, Mike and Jason also think there is a chance that he could be a better back for the Giants because he won’t be trying to do it all himself that way Saquon has had to try and do the last few years. He will go out and get the yards he is supposed to get and then line back up to do it again. Singletary also won’t face nearly the amount of defensive focus Barkley did because defenses won’t see him as the same threat level. Saquon struggled against man/gap run defenses last year, ranking 49th of 49 in success rate compared to that defensive scheme. That ranking shows you it was a successful plan when teams focused solely on stopping Barkley. That shouldn’t be the case with Singletary.
The Ballers again leak into the conversation that the team could improve in simple ways that help elevate the fantasy-relevant players.
Despite the fact that the Giants could improve in simple ways that help elevate the fantasy-relevant players, they are favored in only two of their matchups to start the year. The Giants begin the season hosting Minnesota, then travel to Washington, then Cleveland and Dallas at home, and then to Seattle. It could get ugly in New York quickly if the team struggles to start the season, which seems likely.
Vegas predicts 6.5 wins for the Giants this season.
Washington Commanders
Player Additions: RB Austin Ekeler, QB Marcus Mariota, TE Zach Ertz
Player Subtractions: QB Sam Howell, QB Jacoby Brissett, RB Antonio Gibson, WR Curtis Samuel, TE Logan Thomas
Rookies: QB Jayden Daniels, TE Ben Sinnott, WR Luke McCaffrey
The season in Washington was absolutely brutal. They had the fourth-worst point differential of any team in the last five years (-189 points), which led to sweeping changes. There is a new owner of the team, a new general manager in Adam Peters, and a new head coach with Dan Quinn leaving Dallas for the inner-division team. They also have a new quarterback and offensive coordinator. It is a completely new group for this team, which means there is very little we can take from the last season and translate into knowledge for this year.
The team threw the football more than any other team in the NFL last year, and it was an absolute bust of a season for the starting QB, Sam Howell. The Commanders were the first team in the NFL since 2015 to lead the NFL in pass attempts and not produce a top-20 RB, top-24 WR, or a top-12 TE.
The receiving core last year had high expectations, and they fell completely flat on their faces. Not for lack of running routes though, as Terry McLaurin ran the third most, and Jahan Dotson ran the fifth most. McLaurin did produce his fourth consecutive 1,000-yard season in the NFL, while Dotson was a complete bust last year. There is a weird fatigue with McLaurin, who cannot seem to get to a place where he can reach his highest potential. He is not really to blame for this issue, as he has had 12 different players throw him a pass since 2019. However, trying to muster up the faith that this will be the year Terry McLaurin makes the jump is exhausting, especially after his career lows in yards per catch (12.7) and yards per route run (1.56) last year. The wide receivers also have a cap on them this year because they have a rookie quarterback. There has been a proven track record in the NFL of rookie quarterbacks not delivering top-end wide receiver talent. The good news is that neither McLaurin nor Dotson are upside-down selections this year. McLaurin is currently the WR33, and Dotson the WR65. That is most likely the floor for both players barring injury. So, they could be a valuable draft pick for you this year.
Dotson had a great rookie year, and it looked like he was poised to leap into fantasy stardom last year. That is the opposite of what happened. Dotson may not be a superstar, but he can very much be a relevant fantasy WR again. He caught seven touchdowns his rookie season and had 16% targets per route run. Last year, he plummeted to 12.4% targets per route run in the Sam Howell-led offense that was incredibly inefficient and didn’t utilize their weapons well enough. Now Dotson has a top-pick QB to work with and very few other weapons to soak up targets, especially with the departure of Curtis Samuel. The targets will be focused more on Dotson and McLaurin this year, which could help them both provide fantasy value.
There are typically not a lot of passing touchdowns from a rookie QB, and with Jayden Daniels‘ rushing ability where he could run in a few more touchdowns than typical, there could be even fewer TDs to go around to the pass catchers—presenting the real issue for the upside of the two key receiving weapons.
Washington drafted Jayden Daniels with the number two overall pick after an incredible Heisman-winning senior season at LSU. He had 22 touchdowns of 20+ air yards and produced 43% of LSU’s rushing yards. He was impressive in every part of the game last year but now faces some real challenges. The offensive line in front of him is not great, ranking in the bottom third of the lines. Daniels’ balance of when to run the ball vs. when to throw in this new system under Kliff Kingsbury is very different. The hardest thing for him is that he will be the starter; the Commanders drafted Daniels to be the starter, which means he will play from the jump, whether he is ready or not. From a fantasy perspective, he has the superpower you want from your QBs. He runs the ball incredibly well, and if he can stay healthy despite his more petite (for the NFL) frame, he can easily be a top-10 fantasy QB. For context, every rookie quarterback with 80 rushing attempts has finished in the top 10 in fantasy points per game. In the 17-game era, he would have to average 4.7 rushes per game, a meager number for someone with his talent.
If his pass catchers step up, then there are reasons to believe that Daniels could be a massive value in your drafts. Daniels, the QB15, could finish with that ranking due to a slow start as a rookie, but his ability to run is going to float him even in games when he struggles as a passer. It would not be surprising if he is a top QB in the back half of the season and helps teams deep into the playoffs.
The RB room is another place where there could be a surprise in value. Brian Robinson is the RB35, and Austin Ekeler is the RB31. Andy is a true believer in Brian Robinson being a value; Robinson proved to be a good pass catcher last season and was much better than this draft position as a fantasy running back. Robinson was the RB4 from Weeks 1-11, averaging 13.5 fantasy points per game and 15.5 opportunities. The question for the backfield is, what do you believe about Austin Ekeler? If Ekeler is as washed as he looked last year, then Robinson should see a workload similar to last year, and he will be a steal. If Ekeler can return to form and go back to being the fantasy stud that he had been for years, then he will be the one everyone is mad about. However, we know that sometimes it doesn’t come back when an RB looks like he loses it. Ekeler finished 52nd out of 61 in yards per carry, ranked 47th among 50 qualifying RBs in yards after contact per rush, and 61% of his rush attempts gained three yards or fewer. The explosiveness looked like it was gone; if it is, then he will not be much of a factor for this offense.
Both RBs are being drafted in the ninth round, and either could be one of the steals of the draft. This RB room is another backfield where you could find genuine value for your lineup, especially if your strategy is hero-RB or zero-RB.
The TE situation is worth a discussion. Zach Ertz was a PPR machine with Kliff Kingsbury in Arizona and now teams back up with him in Washington. The TE36 Ertz could easily be one of the players we find in the streaming for matchups category. He looks similar to last year’s Logan Thomas. The team also drafted a rookie in Ben Sinnott, who will play some as a hybrid FB/”Move” TE, similar to the way the 49ers use Kittle. However, he is a rookie, and rookie TEs don’t have great first years. Sinnott is probably over-drafted at the TE19 this season, but he could be a great option next year.
Vegas predicts 6.5 wins for Washington this season.
Who Wins the Division?
Fun fact – the same team hasn’t won this division in back-to-back years since 2004. Is this the year that the trend changes?
| Andy | Mike | Jason | Caleb |
| Cowboys | Cowboys | Cowboys | Eagles |
| Eagles | Eagles | Eagles | Cowboys |
| Commanders | Commanders | Giants | Commanders |
| Giants | Giants | Commanders | Giants |