Hungry for More: The Fantasy Footballers’ Predictions for Week 4
Heading into Week 4 means we’re nearing the end of the first quarter of the NFL season, and while there have been plenty of tasty treats already for fantasy managers, we’re hoping to continue adding flavor to our fantasy rosters!
Each week the Ballers will pick a player who super-sized their game in the past week and decide if they’ll continue to eat at the big guy’s table or go back to the kid’s table. Of course, I’ll give you an extra side dish or two to go along with Andy, Mike, and Jason’s main course! Let me know if you think we’re cooking up a high-end meal or if it’s more like gas station sushi!
WR – Josh Downs (IND)
Andy has his sights set on Colts rookie Josh Downs after he saw a team-high 12 targets in the Colts’ Week 3 win. Through the first three games of the season, Downs has been progressively worked into the offense so he should be rostered in most leagues given the lack of other receiving options around him outside of Michael Pittman Jr. What’s a little troubling when it comes to Downs is his 4.9 average depth of target, which ranks third-worst among the 11 rookie WRs who have seen at least 10 targets this season.
Downs’ ability to bring a spicy addition to fantasy rosters may change depending on who is under center for the Colts, with Anthony Richardson still uncertain for their Week 4 matchup with the Rams. Clearly, backup QB Gardner Minshew looked Downs’ way consistently during his start last week, but a return to Anthony Richardson may sway the majority of targets back to Pittman, who saw double-digit targets in the Colts’ opening games. Still, Downs has been involved enough to expect him to continue to be involved and a potential flex play going forward.
WR – Marvin Mims Jr. (DEN)
While the Broncos’ offense has been bottom of the trash can gross through three weeks, Jason argues that one bright spot for fantasy managers is rookie WR Marvin Mims Jr. Mims has finished inside the top 20 WRs in back-to-back weeks, despite playing less than a quarter of the snaps on offense for Denver. Among rookie WRs who have at least five receptions this season, Mims has the highest yards per reception average at 27.9. This means that while Mims isn’t getting a ton of looks from Russell Wilson, he is making the most of the high-value targets that are coming his direction.
The Broncos are actually throwing the ball plenty, currently with the 12th most passing attempts and the eighth most passing yards in the league. What will be important for Mims will be getting on the field more consistently for Denver. It isn’t sustainable for Mims to be producing top-20 fantasy finishes averaging three targets per game. While we like what we’ve seen so far, Mims will need to carve out a bigger role or he’ll leave fantasy managers out in the cold.
WR – Romeo Doubs (GB)
The Packers’ hot start offensively has directly been a benefit for second-year WR Romeo Doubs who’s posted two top-15 WR finishes in his first three games. Doubs’ Week 3 was arguably his best yet, finishing with 12 total targets and matching his career-high of receiving yards in a game with 73. Even though the passing volume is in the lower half of the league, Doubs is seeing 21% of the Packers’ passes come his way and is tied as their leader in both targets and receptions.
While it’s uncertain if the Packers will continue the efficiency that we’ve seen so far to start the year on offense, Mike argues that Doubs has worked his way into a role that shouldn’t go away even with the expected return of Christian Watson and Aaron Jones this week against the Lions. Doubs has seen an increase in snaps steadily throughout the season, peaking at 86% of snaps last week. If Doubs continues to get looks consistently from Jordan Love, he could be a consistent WR2 play for fantasy managers.
WR – Joshua Palmer (LAC)
As one of the hot waiver wire pickups for this week, I’m interested in seeing what Joshua Palmer can do with a potentially increased workload in the Chargers’ offense starting this week. With Mike Williams out for the remainder of the season, Palmer stepped up last week for L.A.’s offense. Fantasy managers have actually seen this increased opportunity for Palmer from last season when he stood in for the Chargers due to injury. From Week 2 to 13, Palmer averaged 86% of snaps for L.A. and turned it into 10.6 fantasy points per game.
The biggest argument against Palmer being a snack for fantasy rosters will be rookie WR Quentin Johnston. It should be expected that the Chargers’ first-round pick will see an increase from the 22% of snaps he’s averaging so far this year, but even while he’s been on the field, Johnston hasn’t managed to make much of an impact. With the familiarity that Palmer has already built with Justin Herbert, I’ll be getting my fork and knife ready for more yummy fantasy finishes to come with his increased workload.