Fantasy Football Target Trends for Week 4
Welcome to the target trends article for Week 4! As the season progresses, we get more and more data as we examine target trends. As usual, let’s start by taking a glance at the season-long leaders.
We have a three-way tie atop the target leader board, with Ja’Marr Chase, Stefon Diggs, and Cooper Kupp all checking in at 35 targets. Davante Adama, Marquise Brown, and CeeDee Lamb are just one behind with 34. Mark Andrews is way out ahead among tight ends with 31 targets thus far. Zack Ertz is the next closest with 25. As far as running backs are concerned, Austin Ekeler leads with 22. That puts him on pace for nearly 125 targets on the season, way ahead of the 94 targets he had to lead all running backs along with Najee Harris last year.
I’ll continue to lead off this article with season-long target leaders are year long but for now, let’s check out this week’s target trends heading into Week 4.
Marquise Brown: 17 targets, 14 rec
Hollywood hit a new career-high with his league-leading 17 targets in Week 3. After a slow start to the season, he’s seen his target total and team target share climb each week. He saw just six targets, or a 17% target share, in Week 1. The 17 targets in Week 3 equated to a 31% team target share. He’s likely to continue leading the way for Arizona, at least until DeAndre Hopkins finishes serving his suspension.
Russell Gage: 13 targets, 12 rec
Gage led the depleted Tampa Bay receiving corps in with 13 targets in Week 3. He turned them into a career-best 12 receptions and finished as the WR7 on the week. His role as a target hog will likely be short-lived, as Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Julio Jones are all scheduled to return to the Buccaneers lineup sooner than later.
Mark Andrews: 13 targets, 8 rec
I mentioned in the intro that Andrews is the most targeted tight end in the league, but his 31 targets put him inside the top ten overall most targeted players so far this season. He has nearly twice as many targets as his next closest teammate, Rashod Bateman, who’s seen 16 so far. Even more impressively, he has a 36% team target share on the season. For context, Travis Kelce has never topped 27% on a season and Zach Ertz came in at 26% when he set the record for tight end targets with 156 in 2018.
Chris Olave: 13 targets, 9 rec
Alvin Kamara: 7 targets, 2 rec
Chris Olave saw just three targets in Week 1. Then he proceeded to see 13 targets in consecutive weeks. He appears to be the WR1 in New Orleans, leading the Saints in nearly every statistical category. He also leads the entire NFL in air yards. By a lot.
Chris Olave has led the league in air yards in back-to-back weeks. He has 603 over this span. Only one other player over 400 this season.
Has 13 targets and 80-plus yards in back-to-back games.
His 268 yards is the 10th-most by any rookie WR (through Weeks 1-3) all-time.
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) September 27, 2022
Also worth mentioning, Alvin Kamara saw seven targets for the first time since Week 9 of last season. While it didn’t amount to much, his work in the passing game may become necessary if Michael Thomas or Jarvis Landry are hampered by injury.
Devonta Smith: 12 targets, 8 rec
A.J. Brown: 10 targets, 5 rec
Smith is another player that has seen his target share grow every week so far in the young 2022 season. He finished as the top-scoring fantasy wideout on the week after failing to score a single fantasy point as recently as Week 1. He has a 24% target share on the season, which combined with A.J. Brown‘s 33% share, puts them at a combined 57%. That rivals the 59% target share that Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have seen so far this season in Miami.
Breece Hall: 11 targets, 6 rec
Garrett Wilson: 10 targets. 6 rec
Elijah Moore: 10 targets, 4 rec
Tyler Conklin: 8 targets, 8 rec
Yes, I just listed four New York Jets. Garret Wilson leads all rookies with 32 targets on the season. Breece Hall has seen the fourth most, 21, among all rookies. Tyler Conklin has seen the third most among all tight ends. Even Elijah Moore saw double-digit targets for the first time this season. This is what happens when 37-year-old Joe Flacco leads the NFL in pass attempts. Things could look different, however, when Zach Wilson makes his season debut in Week 4.
Devin Singletary: 11 targets, 9 rec
Stefon Diggs: 11 targets, 7 rec
Lack of work in the passing game has always been a ding to Singletary’s fantasy value, so it’s surprising to see him tie target hog Stefon Diggs for the team lead in Week 3. He was effective with the work, finishing as RB5 on the week. Will Josh Allen continue to target him, or is this an outlier performance? Only time will tell, but it’s tough to count on him considering this was the first time he’s ever seen more than eight targets in a game.
Davante Adams: 10 targets, 5 rec
Mack Hollins: 10 targets, 8 rec
It’s no surprise to see Davante Adams getting double-digit targets in a game. If you include the playoffs, he’s seen at least 10 targets in 57 individual games! What is surprising is ten targets to Mack Hollins, who logged that kind of stat line for the first time in his career. He made the most of it, more than doubling his previous career high in receiving yards. It’s tough to expect this to become the norm for Hollins, especially when Hunter Renfrow returns, but this kind of stat line can’t be ignored.
It should also be noted that Darren Waller saw just as many targets as fellow tight end Foster Moreau. Not ideal for those of us with Waller on our fantasy rosters.
Josh Reynolds: 10 targets, 6 rec
Amon-Ra St. Brown: 9 targets, 6 rec
Reynolds has been all but forgotten about, even though he logged three double-digit target games in his time with the Rams (with Jared Goff at quarterback). Meanwhile, after highlighting his double-digit target streak in the article last week, it appears I jinxed the Sun God. He fell just short of the mark, but still needs to be considered a must-start wideout, while Reynolds is more of a deep sleeper or DFS dart throw.
Cooper Kupp: 6 targets, 4 rec
Kupp is a staple of this article, but it’s usually far more positive. The six targets he saw in Week 3 are the fewest for him since Week 15 of the 2020 season. That’s the end of a 22-game streak, including playoffs, with more than six targets. Something tells me he’ll bounce back and be just fine.
DJ Moore: 6 targets, 1 rec
Oh, what could be if Moore ever got to play with a good quarterback? After three weeks it seems clear that Baker Mayfield is not the QB that will unlock Moore. Maybe we should have seen this coming. Elite wideout Odell Beckham Jr. averaged 7.4 targets/game when playing with Baker, considerably lower than the 10 targets/game he’s averaged with any other quarterback. Sigh.
Jaylen Waddle: 6 targets, 4 rec
Tyreek Hill: 4 targets, 2 rec
These target numbers are shockingly low compared to last week when Waddle and Hill combined for 32 targets. A big reason, however, is the fact that Miami ran just 39 plays in Week 3, and only 20 of them were passes. That’s even more outrageous considering Buffalo ran 90(!) plays in the same game. Regardless, Hill and Waddle still have elite target shares, each pushing 30%, and should be just fine moving forward.