Fantasy Football Target Trends for Week 11
Welcome to the target trends article for Week 11! As we continue to navigate injuries and bye weeks in the heart of the NFL season, target trends become more important than ever. Let’s start, as usual, by checking in on the overall target landscape in the league.
Despite just six targets in Week 10, Tyreek Hill still leads the league with 106 overall targets on the season. As he heads to bye this week, there’s a good chance he gets passed up in Week 11. He’s averaging 10.6 targets/game, fewer than Justin Jefferson (11.1), Davante Adams (11.0), and Stefon Diggs (11.0). Cooper Kupp (10.9) is also ahead of him on a per-game basis, but it will be a while before he gets targets again as he recovers from his new ankle injury.
The tight end and running back season-long target records are still on pace to be broken. Travis Kelce’s 84 targets put him on pace for 159 on the season, which would top the 156 by Zach Ertz in 2018. Ertz has the second-most targets among tight ends this season but is significantly behind with 69. Unfortunately, his season-ending knee injury means he won’t be adding any more, and the gap between Kelce and the rest of the tight end field grows. At running back, Austin Ekeler’s 81 targets put him on pace for 153 on the season, which would break Christian McCaffrey’s 2019 record of 142. CMC has the second-most targets at the position this season with 60, substantially behind Ekeler.
I’ll continue to lead off this article with season-long target leaders. Now after some monster target showings in Week 10, let’s check out this week’s target trends heading into Week 11.
Jefferson was the star of Week 10 after making one of the most amazing catches in the history of the sport. He also set a new career-high with 16 targets and took over as the most frequently targeted player in the league. His teammate Osborne also set a career-high with his 11 targets, though he was much less productive with his. Meanwhile, recent addition T.J. Hockenson also saw double-digit targets and has now seen 19 in his first two weeks as a Vikings, good enough for a 21% team target share.
Stefon Diggs: 16 targets, 12 rec
In the same game as Jefferson, Diggs also saw 16 targets. His 99 targets on the season are one fewer than Jefferson, but more than twice as many as his next-closest teammate Gabe Davis (47). He has a 29% target share on the season and has seen at least 30% of the team targets in five consecutive weeks.
Davante Adams: 14 targets. 9 rec
Adams is yet another traditional target hog who had a big Week 10. He’s seen a 32% team target share on the season, though it’s been even higher lately at a ridiculous 42% over the past two weeks. His 99 total targets are nearly double the next most-targeted player in Las Vegas, Mack Hollins with 50.
He’s only played four games since returning from suspension, but Hopkins technically leads the league with 11.5 targets/game and a 32.9% team target share. His 46 targets over the last four weeks are the most by anybody over that span. Whether it’s Kyler Murray or Colt McCoy delivering the ball, Hopkins is clearly the focal point of the Arizona offense. Rondale Moore isn’t far behind. He’s seen 10.3 targets/game over the last three weeks. Over that span, Hopkins and Moore have combined for a staggering 57% target share for the Cardinals. That number even has room to grow in the absence of Zach Ertz.
In his first season as a Jaguar, Kirk has the ninth-most targets in the NFL through ten weeks. He’s on pace for 139 over a full season, which would easily surpass his current career-high of 108. His teammate Zay Jones had never seen more than one double-digit target outing in a season before this year, where he’s already hit that mark three times.
Austin Ekeler: 12 targets, 7 rec
Not much needs to be said about Ekeler as he continues his record-setting pace. His volume through the air has been even crazier lately, as he’s averaging 12.3 targets over the last four weeks. He’s the only running back in the league to lead his team in targets, and that isn’t likely to change anytime soon with all the injuries among the Chargers’ pass-catchers.
Amon-Ra St. Brown: 11 targets, 10 rec
As long as he’s healthy, the Sun God can be considered a true target hog. With T.J. Hockenson shipped out and D’Andre Swift far from full strength, St. Brown has averaged an elite 41% target share over the last two weeks. There’s no reason to believe that will be changing anytime soon.
Courtland Sutton: 11 targets, 6 rec
Sutton’s 11 targets tied his season-high, and that may become the norm in Denver for the foreseeable future. With Jerry Jeudy likely sidelined for a while after getting injured early in Week 10, Sutton is set to be the center of attention in the Denver offense. If Russell Wilson can get on track, Sutton could be in for some big games in the upcoming weeks.
Nico Collins: 10 targets, 5 rec
Collins saw a season-high ten targets in his first game back after missing two weeks with a groin injury. That mark also tied his career-high, set in Week 13 of his rookie season last year. We may see a changing of the guard in Houston as the disgruntled Brandin Cooks hasn’t seen double-digit targets since Week 2.
Nobody is happier to see Matt Ryan back under center for the Colts than their wideouts, especially Parris Campbell. He only saw seven total targets in the two games started by Sam Ehlinger. Conversely, he’s seen 32 targets and three touchdowns in his last three games with Ryan. Michael Pittman’s target volume was never in danger, though the quality of those targets is higher when they’re coming from Ryan.
Don’t look now, but DPJ has a 20% target share for the season. It’s been even better lately, at 24% over the last three weeks. His nine targets in Week 10 turned into 99 yards, just two shy of his career high. As for Cooper, it’s tough to ignore his home-road splits. He’s averaging 10.4 targets/game in Cleveland but just 4.3 targets/game on the road. That doesn’t project well for him when he travels to Buffalo next week.
Kenneth Walker: 8 targets, 6 rec
With just 19 receptions over three collegiate seasons, many questioned Walker’s pass-catching chops entering the NFL. He now has 18 receptions in his rookie season on 24 targets, 33% of which came in Week 10. He’s already a workhorse in the Seattle backfield, so any usage in the passing game only increases his odds of being a true league winner down the stretch.
Cole Kmet: 7 targets, 4 rec
Kmet hadn’t topped four targets in a game through the first eight games, averaging just 2.5 targets/game over that stretch. That’s completely changed, as he’s been averaging 6.5 targets over the past two weeks. He’s turned four of those targets into touchdowns over that time. The touchdowns may not be as consistent, but you have to believe Chicago will continue to involve him in the passing game with Justin Fields.
Tyreek Hill: 6 targets, 5 rec
Even the league’s target leader can have a down game from time to time. Hill saw a season-low four targets back in Week 3, then bounced back for 14 targets in Week 4. He’s still pacing for 182 yards on the season and should be in line for another big week after Miami’s bye.
Cooper Kupp: 5 targets, 3 rec
Pour one out for last season’s target king Cooper Kupp. His ankle injury will be keeping him out for a few weeks, if not longer, for the hapless Rams. Through his first eight weeks, Kupp was pacing for 198 targets, which would have been even more than the 191 he saw last season. Fantasy football just isn’t the same when Kupp isn’t on the field.