Fantasy Football Target Practice: The 2026 Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals remained one of the NFL’s most productive passing offenses in 2025 despite losing Joe Burrow to a Grade 3 turf toe injury in Week 2. Burrow threw for 1,809 yards and 17 touchdowns in just eight games, while Cincinnati’s passing attack continued to produce for skill players under Joe Flacco, finishing the season with 4,244 passing yards and 38 TDs as a crew for the Queen City.
Assuming Burrow is back to full strength in 2026 (so far, so good), passing volume shouldn’t be a concern. The bigger fantasy question is where those targets go outside of the two alphas. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins once again project to lead the way, but Chase Brown, Mike Gesicki, Andrei Iosivas & Co. all have roles in one of the league’s most fantasy-friendly passing offenses.
Break it down now, ya’ll.
1. The Macro View: Projecting the 2026 Passing Game
Passing Projection for Joe Burrow
- Pass Attempts: 570
- Completions: 405
- Passing Yards: 4,355
- Passing TDs: 37
These numbers come directly from Baller’s Premium Projections in the Ultimate Draft Kit, plus my adjustments based on available Sportsbook futures/medians.
Joe Burrow‘s 2025 season got derailed, but his fantasy ceiling remains unquestioned. Over the last four seasons, Burrow has established himself as one of the NFL’s premier fantasy quarterbacks even without the rushing upside of the Allen/Lamar types. He finished as the overall QB3 or better for 14 weeks in that span. What’s wild is he missed 17 games in that span!
There is no doubt the offense reaches another level with Burrow under center and not Smoking Joe Cool (Flacco). Assuming he’s back to full strength in 2026, these projections expect another season of elite QB1 production.
2. 2026 Bengals Target Projection Summary
| Player | Targets | Target Share | Receptions | Yards | TDs |
| Ja’Marr Chase | 172 | 30% | 120 | 1516 | 12 |
| Tee Higgins | 114 | 20% | 75 | 1043 | 8 |
| Chase Brown | 80 | 14% | 60 | 421 | 4 |
| Mike Gesicki | 57 | 10% | 41 | 432 | 5 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 46 | 8% | 27 | 346 | 4 |
| Samaje Perine | 27 | 5% | 22 | 147 | 1 |
| Erick All | 23 | 4% | 17 | 156 | 1 |
| Drew Sample | 23 | 4% | 17 | 146 | 1 |
| Tanner Hudson | 17 | 3% | 13 | 110 | 1 |
| Mitchell Tinsley | 11 | 2% | 7 | 84 | 0 |
| Colbie Young | 6 | 1% | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| Tahj Brooks | 6 | 1% | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Totals | 582 | x | 405 | 4459 | 37 |
Advanced Passing Team Notes from 2025
The Bengals ranked dead last in creating uncontested catch opportunities, leading the NFL with 119 contested targets. The next closest team finished with 102, making who dey’ a clear outlier. Some of that can likely be attributed to Flacco taking over for much of the season, as his aggressive play style has never shied away from giving receivers chances in tight spaces. Still, consistently asking pass catchers to win through contact is difficult to sustain.
With Joe Burrow back under center, expect the Bengals to create more clean throwing windows and improve thanks to easier catches.
3. The Targets: Individual Player Breakdowns
2026 Projected Passing Pie: 582 pass attempts
Ja’Marr Chase
172 targets | 30% target share | 120 receptions | 1,516 yards | 12 TDs
No receiver projects for more volume than Ja’Marr Chase. His 182 targets led the league, reinforcing his status as one of the few true offensive focal points in the game. Cincinnati has shown time and again that Chase will see elite volume no matter what.
The surprising part of Chase’s season wasn’t the workload. It was the TD total. After scoring 17 TDs the previous year, Chase found the end zone just eight times despite finishing with 22 targets inside the 20-yard line, 6th most in the league. That is the second-lowest TD finish of his career.
The Optimism: Chase doesn’t need more opportunities to finish as the WR1 overall. The volume is already unmatched. If his TD efficiency simply regresses, double-digit scores should be the expectation.
The Critique: There isn’t much to criticize in Chase’s profile. It’s just scary to see projections that high. Usually, these come in lower because they’re median based. The only real concern is that his target share leaves little room for additional volume. His fantasy ceiling is tied to TD variance rather than a meaningful increase in opportunities.
Tee “Meat” Higgins
114 targets | 20% target share | 75 receptions | 1,043 yards | 8 TDs
Tee Higgins is undoubtedly the best WR “2” in the NFL. He ranks as our 18th WR, higher than 15 other teams’ highest drafted pass catcher! He lined up out wide on 87.7% of his routes, the seventh-highest rate among all wide receivers, cementing his status as a primary boundary receiver. Even with Chase ball hoggin’ targets at times, Tee eats from a pie that’s plenty big for sharing.
The Optimism: Higgins doesn’t need Chase to miss time to produce. He finished as the WR17 in fantasy points last season (full PPR). A healthy Burrow, a stable 20% target share (instead of last year’s underwhelming 17.1%), and one of the league’s highest-volume passing offenses provide a healthy floor with plenty of opportunity at spike weeks.
The Critique: Chase will always be the focal point of this passing game. Higgins’ path to exceeding expectations is tied more to field stretching and long TDs than being in an evenly split time share. His role is extremely safe, but his ceiling is naturally capped by sharing the field with one of the NFL’s most dominant target earners.
Chase Brown
80 targets | 14% target share | 60 receptions | 421 yards | 4 TDs
Chase Brown proved he was far more than just an early-down runner in 2025. His 0.23 Targets Per Route Run ranked seventh among all running backs, placing him alongside elite receiving backs like Jahmyr Gibbs, De’Von Achane, Christian McCaffrey, and Bijan Robinson. Targets Per Route Run is one of the best indicators of how often a QB looks for a player while the player is actually running a route, making it a strong measure of receiving involvement rather than total opportunity alone.
The Optimism: Brown’s receiving role gives him a safe floor, so hopefully it’s up from there. He finished as the RB7 in half-PPR scoring last season, with almost 15 points a game (.5 PPR). But the standard deviation was too low to count on “wins-my-team-the-week” games. Brown has a chance to see better high-value receiving opportunities because they literally did nothing to change the depth chart at WR (besides cutting Jermaine Burton).
The Critique: Brown’s receiving usage is great, but he still lacks some traditional RB tools that could ascend him into first-round draft pick territory. Samaje Perine is still capable of handling passing-down work too. His path to another top-10 finish likely depends on maintaining his role and making splash plays with his carries.
Mike Gesicki
57 targets | 10% target share | 41 receptions | 432 yards | 5 TDs
When you hit a Gesicki spike week, you feel like the smartest human alive. The problem is, it’s hard to predict. He’s not a traditional inline TE, and the Bengals are one of those teams comfortable dressing four on game day. He functions more as a big-slot receiver, but his role fluctuates depending on personnel packages and game plans.
Cara Owsley/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
The Optimism: The spike-week potential is real. Over the last two seasons, Gesicki has finished as a top-five tight end twice, including the overall TE1 once. Gesicki has the talent to make big plays.
The Critique: The consistency simply isn’t there. In 2024 he finished as the TE14, only to fall to TE40 in 2025, and his weekly finishes paint the picture (including a -.4 turd he dropped where he finished as TE115). There are explosive weeks sprinkled throughout, but they’re surrounded by long stretches of garbage. Unless injuries force more volume his way, Gesicki is best viewed as a matchup-dependent streaming option rather than someone to rely on.
Andrei Iosivas
46 targets | 8% target share | 27 receptions | 346 yards | 6.7 TDs
Meh, he’s there. That’s really all I can say about Yoshi. Contingent upside is always lingering if one of the stars goes down. After a promising sophomore season where he scored six TDs, he didn’t have the year many expected in 2025. The production dipped across the board, but there’s more to the story than the empty box score.
Iosivas later revealed that the online harassment he received after a string of drops affected his confidence during the season. That’s impossible to quantify, but it provides some context for a player who looked poised to take another step after a sufficient sophomore season.
The Optimism: Iosivas averaged 13.18 yards per reception, second on the Bengals behind Higgins, showing CIN will give him shots downfield. At 6-foot-3, he’s also a natural red-zone target. If he bounces back mentally and Cincinnati gets him into the 12-to-15 red-zone target range, he’d be more interesting.
The Critique: He saw his red-zone opportunities fall from 10 targets to just seven last season. Unless Iosivas earns more high-value looks near the goal line, he’ll remain a TD dependent bench clogger whose weekly value is difficult to trust.
4. Fantasy Strategy & Verdict
Ja’Marr Chase: He’s our 2nd ranked player in dynasty startups at just 26.4 years old. You’ll have to give up an arm, a leg and naming rights to your next child to get a trade done.
Tee Higgins: Higgins remains one of the safest WR2s for redraft but you could consider moving him if you’re rebuilding in dynasty. If his owner discounts him because he’s “the No. 2 receiver,” that’s a buying opportunity as a contender. He’s signed through the next three seasons and is 27.5. You could probably get a deal done for a Jordan Tyson or Tyler Warren type if you’re going younger.
Chase Brown: There’s some market inefficiencies here. He’s already being drafted in the middle of the second round of best ball, signaling the June sickos believe there’s legitimate RB1 upside. Dynasty managers, however, still tend to value him a tier below backs like Derrick Henry and Kenneth Walker. That’s where the opportunity lies because he’s not a household name. We have Brown ranked as our 31st overall player in startups, and his receiving profile may make him a bargain in full PPR.
Mike Gesicki: He’s our 282 ranked player. Trade him for as little as a high five, if you can even get one. On deeper benches (27+ players) he’s probably a better hold because you won’t get anything of value for him.
Andrei Iosivas: This only makes sense if his current manager is frustrated by last year’s disappointing season. If you can acquire Iosivas for next to nothing (like a 2028, 5th round pick), he’s worth the lottery ticket. He’s shown he can score TDs, and if either Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins misses time, his value could spike and you can flip him.
He’s also an interesting depth piece if you roster Joe Burrow and play in leagues with 12+ starting lineup spots, where stacking Bengals passing production can give you a fireworks game when they light up the scoreboard.