Fantasy Football Takeaways from Week 1 of the Preseason
Week 1 of the NFL preseason is officially in the books! While we don’t want to overreact to what happened on the field in an exhibition game with some starters playing and some starters resting, it is important to take note of what happened and how players were used as this can be a signal of how coaches plan to allocate playing time, distribute touches, etc.
If you missed this weekend’s action, below are my 10 biggest takeaways from Week 1 of the NFL preseason:
1. Joe Burrow is trending towards being healthy for Week 1.
Burrow didn’t play in Cincinnati’s first preseason game, but he did participate in a pre-game workout. Cincy’s franchise QB injured his calf in late July, adding some mild uncertainty about whether or not he’d be available for Week 1. Prior to Friday evening, we hadn’t seen Burrow on a field since the injury, but he appeared to be moving well and trending in the right direction. Of course, it is important to note that Burrow is clearly not moving around at 100%, and these calf injuries do have a tendency to linger, but the fact that Joey B was out there jogging and participating in a throwing session indicates he’s making progress.
Joe Burrow is on the field running and was throwing a bit earlier. Starters are not expected to play tonight but positive news seeing this before the rest of the team comes out to warm up. pic.twitter.com/p9vN1ipVI8
— Bridget Condon (@BridgetCondon_) August 11, 2023
2. Kendre Miller exits early with a knee sprain.
The Saints rookie RB left their game against the Chiefs early with a knee injury and did not return. Head coach Dennis Allen described the injury as a “sprain” and reported that his RB will undergo further testing early this week. Allen also said he believes the injury was to the same knee that Miller injured during his last couple of games as a college player at TCU. Miller eventually went on to have surgery to repair a torn MCL and missed the vast majority of the team’s off-season program recovering from that injury. Earlier last week, the team hosted Kareem Hunt on a visit. With Alvin Kamara suspended for three games and Eno Benjamin out for the year with a torn Achilles, it’s likely we see the team add a veteran back if Miller is out for an extended period of time.
3. Ty Chandler looked like a capable backup against Seattle.
Alexander Mattison got the night off, and with their RB1 not playing, the Vikings gave Ty Chandler a heavy workload against the Seahawks. Chandler carried the ball 11 times for 41 yards (3.7 YPC) and added 29 receiving yards on four receptions, making the first defender miss routinely. Meanwhile, rookie DeWayne McBride ran for 15 yards on six attempts (2.5 YPC) and didn’t earn a target. Chandler finds himself in the middle of a camp competition for the RB2 job behind Mattison, and after Thursday night’s performance, he looks like the leader in the clubhouse. It is important to note, however, that the team hosted Kareem Hunt on a visit on Friday, so that does add some uncertainty to the situation. If I was drafting today, however, I’d be taking Chandler if I was targeting this ambiguous situation.
adding more context to what Ty Chandler did last night:
he faced loaded boxes on 91% of his runs
as a result, 55% of his runs he was contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage
he *still* averaged 3.0 yards after contact
also caught all 4 of his targets
impressive
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) August 11, 2023
4. Greg Dulcich might not be Denver’s TE1.
Earlier in camp, new Broncos head coach, Sean Payton, referenced that Dulcich might be used in the “Joker role” in his offense, making fantasy drafters excited about what Dulcich could do in year two in this scheme. However, in their first preseason game, Adam Trautman looked like the Broncos’ starting TE. Per PFF, Trautman led Dulcich in snaps (15 to 10), routes run (9 to 7) and targets (3 to 0). Greg D was only in the game on third downs and in 2TE sets while Trautman was out there in 11 personnel on early downs. We don’t want to overreact to less than a half of football, but if this trend continues, we could be getting an Albert O situation from Denver two years in a row.
5. Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott sit. Rashaad Penny and D’Andre Swift play with the backups.
The vast majority of the Eagles starters didn’t play against the Ravens, so it was surprising to see Philly’s two newest RBs, D’Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny in the game over Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott. Entering last week’s game, there was a lot of buzz from Philly beat reporters that the team might view Gainwell as their RB1. If you follow the playing time from Week 1 of the preseason, it certainly adds more question marks as to how the team plans to use Swift and Penny. While this doesn’t necessarily look good on the surface for Swift and Penny, it’s important not to over-react here. Nick Sirianni’s quotes after the game suggest that he wanted to get his newest RBs some run with their new team. While I’ve been higher than market on Gainwell in best ball rankings, I’d be careful chasing his ADP over the next week. We need more information…
Nick Sirianni on how playing time was determined at RB: pic.twitter.com/AskB3Bn0sp
— Zach Berman (@ZBerm) August 13, 2023
6. Rondale Moore only plays in 3WR sets.
Marquise Brown didn’t play in this one, but even with Brown out, Rondale Moore only played in the slot. Rookie Michael Wilson and veteran Zach Pascal started in 2WR sets with Moore only getting four snaps out of the slot in 3WR sets. This isn’t anything new for Moore, who played 55 (!!) percent of his snaps from the slot last season. There was hope that in this new scheme that maybe Moore could be out there as the WR2 across from Brown, but it looks like the team still views him as a traditional slot only player. It’s going to be tough for Moore to find a ceiling for fantasy on limited playing time if this trend continues. Michael Wilson, who was selected in the third round out of Stanford, has reportedly been killing it in Cardinals camp. He could work his way into the starting lineup across from Brown sooner than we think.
7. Khalil Herbert looks like the Chicago RB1.
Justin Fields and the starters only played seven snaps, but it’s notable that in that small sample, Herbert played all seven snaps while D’Onta Foreman and Roschon Johnson both played zero snaps. It’s obviously a very small sample, and over the course of a full game, Herbert isn’t playing 100% of the snaps, but it does give us some insight as to how the Chicago depth chart stands as of mid August. Herbert certainly helped his case, taking a dump off from Fields 56 yards to the house.
The Bears are having fun out there today 🔥
📺: #TENvsCHI on @NFLNetwork
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/bBFpXevVUR pic.twitter.com/dxpJK7Jgul— NFL (@NFL) August 12, 2023
8. Luke Musgrave is the Packers TE1.
Jordan Love and the starters only played 12 snaps in Week 1 of the preseason according to PFF. It’s notable that Luke Musgrave played every snap with the starters while Tucker Kraft only played four snaps in 2TE sets. Musgrave also ran eight routes on Love’s nine drop backs (89% route rate) compared to Kraft’s three. We know the hit rate on rookie TEs for fantasy is quite poor, but if a rookie is going to buck the trend, he’ll need to be out there in 11 personnel sets and logging a high route rate. Friday night’s usage at least indicates that’s in the range of potential outcomes for the second round rookie out of Oregon State.
9. Justyn Ross and Richie James are still buried on the depth chart.
Ross has been getting a ton of buzz in Chiefs camp, and he has the pedigree we look for in a late round target. While playing at Clemson as a freshman, Ross out-produced fellow NFL players, Hunter Renfrow and Tee Higgins. Despite that optimism, Ross and free agent signee Richie James both played exclusively after the starters left the field. It is absolutely worth mentioning that Mahomes and company only played six snaps, but in those six snaps, MVS and Skyy Moore led the WR room in playing time with Justin Watson and Rashee Rice mixing in as well. Kadarius Toney (knee) was also out, so this playing time suggests Ross and James are currently behind all of the aforementioned names. This is a situation that could certainly change over the next few weeks, but right now, Ross and James look like they’re on the outside looking in.
10. Travis Etienne dominates snaps but loses valuable touches.
Etienne is no doubt the Jaguars’ RB1. According to PFF, he played 10/13 snaps with Trevor Lawrence and the starters, carrying the ball fives times for 22 yards (4.4 YPC). He ran four routes but didn’t earn a target. It’s decent usage for Etienne, but the main takeaway here is that Tank Bigsby got the call in the team’s only short-yardage situation with the starters, subbing in on 3rd & 1. It’s a possible signal that Bigsby could steal some short-yardage work in the regular season, particularly around the goal line. In addition, JaMycal Hasty also got some time with the starters, specifically coming into the game on 3rd and long, indicating the team might view him as their “passing down” back. There’s been a steady buzz out of Jaguars’ camp that Bigsby could steal some work around the goal line and potentially in the receiving game as well. The usage from Week 1 of the preseason suggests there’s some smoke to that fire.
It’s just one preseason game BUT Travis Etienne gave way to Tank Bigsby on the first drive in short yardage and left the field for JaMycal Hasty on 3rd and long.
Not ideal, y’all.
Might just be a between the 20s back.
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) August 13, 2023