Fantasy Football Saturday Mailbag for Week 5
Good Morning Footclan! It’s Saturday, and that can mean only one thing..it’s time for the Saturday Morning Mailbag! As we do each and every weekend here at Ballers’ HQ, I have selected a handful of your questions from The Fantasy Footballers’ Discord server and will do my very best to give you my takes, helping to get those rosters prepared for this week’s matchups and beyond. The Ballers’ Discord is home to the biggest and best online fantasy football community in the world and is your go-to if you’re looking to talk about all things fantasy football. Head over today and get involved with thousands of members across dozens of dedicated channels for start/sit questions, trade advice, and waiver wire insights, as well as exclusive areas that are only available to members of the Footclan.
Week 4 has come and gone and with it more blockbuster headlines across the National Football League. The Chiefs are one of only two teams to sit at a perfect 4-0, but what lies ahead for this offense with the loss of superstar wideout Rashee Rice? Jayden Daniels is setting the league on fire in his first four games as a pro…but is he the real deal, and should you capitalize on his hot start? And what about Brandon Aiyuk and Garrett Wilson, will either of these early-season busts return value on their early draft capital? The answers to all these and more…let’s dive in.
Question #1 – Waiver Wire
Howdy Ballers! What are we doing with Brock Bowers? Does a Davante Adams trade hurt his overall value? Should we try to trade him before the Raiders make a QB change? – Prounced PreSKitt
Answer: I’m going to bring in a special guest analyst, and one of my fellow countrymen from Bonnie Scotland, to help answer this one.
Thanks, William, great take. Through Week 4, the rookie is the overall TE4 in half-PPR formats, thanks largely to two opening top-five performances to start the season. The 13th overall pick in this year’s draft has exceeded the hopes and dreams of even the most optimistic of Bowers’ truthers – sitting third in targets, second in receptions, and second in receiving yards at the position. The Raiders’ victory over the Browns in Week 4 was the first time we have seen Brock operate in this offense without Davante Adams, and while the star wide receiver’s absence may be a permanent issue for the Raiders – Bowers’ relatively poor output from Sunday afternoon should merely be temporary and of little concern to fantasy managers. Bowers may be in line for the Patrick Surtain treatment in Denver this weekend, so temper expectations heading into that one – regardless of his box score at Mile High – please don’t let any kind of down week for the rookie shake your confidence in his potential moving forward. If Davante Adams were to be traded, Bowers stands a great chance of emerging as the lead receiver on this Las Vegas offense and will be an elite fantasy option at the position – regardless if it is Gardner Minshew or Aidan O’Connell under center. Hold him, start him, and whatever you do…do not trade him away.
Question #2 – Start/Sit Strategy
Hi Ballers! How do you decide who to start between really good players when you are deep at a position? For example – I need to play 3 of Malik Nabers, D.K. Metcalf, Chris Olave and George Pickens – Max MPHj
Answer: This is a great question, Max. Fantasy football for me is all about giving yourself the best possible chance to win on any given week. Unfortunately, we don’t have the ability to predict the future (yet) – so we have to consider all of the relevant factors that can impact a player’s performance on any given week. I like to start by looking at the opposing team’s defensive ability against that particular position – if for example one of my wideouts is going up against the Minnesota Vikings (who are allowing a league-worst 221.5 YPG to wide receivers), and the other is facing the Buffalo Bills (the best defense against the position, allowing a mere 86 YPG to pass-catchers) – then that can be a great tie-breaker to help decide who to start that particular week. There are several other factors we can take into consideration when making start/sit decisions including the over/under points total of the game, a team’s implied point total, whether that team is a favorite to win or if they are an underdog (the line), and even the weather can have an impact on how players at a particular position could perform. I would recommend using The Fantasy Footballers’ Start/Sit Tool to help you make these difficult decisions – it contains Andy, Mike, and Jason’s individual rankings, an overall consensus ranking, and also highlights all the key aspects mentioned above to give you the best possible information to make your choices. Just remember, it’s your team and only you can make the final decision – no matter how much data you gather, sometimes you have to go with your gut!
Question #3 – Trade Advice
I have Patrick Mahomes in a 10-Team Half-PPR. With Rashee Rice out, should I sell high on Xavier Worthy or hold onto him for the stack? – jimmyjam1225
Answer: Despite being one of only two 4-0 teams in the league, the Kansas City Chiefs are a dumpster fire for fantasy football so far this season. Through four weeks, Patrick Mahomes is the QB17, Travis Kelce the TE13, and despite only having played in 50% of their games, Isiah Pacheco remains the teams’ top performing running back at RB38. Things were a little better at the wide receiver position – Rashee Rice sits as the WR13 for fantasy after KC’s opening four games (before landing on IR with a suspected torn ACL), with rookie pass-catcher Xavier Worthy falling just inside WR2 range as the overall WR23 on the year. With Rice slated to miss at least four weeks, the natural inclination is to assume Worthy will see an increased role in the offense and a huge bump in fantasy production…but I’m not so sure. The rookie out of Texas is the only wideout currently in the top 40 with single-digit catches on the year – and alongside Quentin Johnston and Andrei Iosivas – is one of only three with fewer than 160 receiving yards. Patrick Mahomes has already begun to talk up the veteran JuJu Smith-Schuster ahead of the Saints’ visit in Week 5 – and with Rice off the field last weekend, it was Kelce, not the rookie, that saw an increase in targets from the back-to-back Super Bowl MVP. Worthy may see a slight uptick in looks each week but I expect him to remain a touchdown-dependent WR3/4 – if you can sell high on him, or anyone in this Chiefs’ offense not named Travis Kelce…go for it.
Question #4 – Season-Long Strategy (Stack Attack)
Suuuuuup my dudes. Which stack would you prefer – Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin or C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins? – Bear Down to Clown
Answer: First things first, if you already have both of these stacks on your roster…congratulations, that’s some good work. However, I’m going to assume that you don’t quite have all the pieces of this puzzle, and you’re looking to make some moves to potentially acquire one of these high-scoring QB/WR stacks. In the red corner, we have the Washington Commanders duo of rookie sensation Jayden Daniels and sixth-year wideout Terry McLaurin. Daniels’ entry into the NFL has been nothing short of sensational. Through four weeks, the number two overall pick and reigning Heisman Trophy winner has had three top-seven finishes and sits as the overall QB1 in fantasy. His rushing numbers alone would slot him in as the RB22 (one spot behind Bijan Robinson) and his near-flawless passing performances have been a joy to watch. Scary Terry took a couple of games to get warmed up, but back-to-back games with a touchdown have seen McLaurin finish as the WR9 and WR23, leading the Commanders across all receiving categories. In the blue corner, we have reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud and the current WR1 in fantasy football…Nico Collins! Fantasy managers who drafted Stroud with a fifth-round pick will undoubtedly be disappointed with the return on their investment so far. The sophomore currently sits at QB11 on the season and had the worst game of his young career in a blowout loss to the Vikings in Week 3. Stroud’s shaky start hasn’t been reflected in the play of Nico Collins however, with last year’s WR9 averaging a massive 122 YPG through the air so far this season.
As much as I love the excitement around Daniels, the relatively safe floor, and the huge upside his rushing abilities bring…I have to lean on the C.J. and Nico side here. Daniels has yet to face a truly top-tier passing defense, and I have my reservations about how he will perform when truly tested as a passer. McLaurin is an excellent wide receiver but throughout his career has never finished a season as a WR1 for fantasy…Nico is well on his way to doing it in back-to-back years. Houston’s strength of schedule at both positions is more favorable between now and the fantasy playoffs, and with the impending return of Tank Dell from a chest injury, I trust C.J. Stroud to be a much more consistent performer through the air than the rookie. Winner: The Blue Corner!
Question #5 – Dynasty Strategy
Yo Ballers! Would it be stupid to trade Bijan Robinson for Malik Nabers in Dynasty? – Grab McConkey
Answer: Not only would this not be stupid…it would be incredibly smart! Despite a relatively pedestrian start to the season, Bijan Robinson remains a top-three running back in dynasty formats, and should be an elite option at the position for the next two to three years…but even with that, Bijan’s value pales in comparison to the exponentially increasing upside Malik Nabers has displayed through his first four weeks as an NFL pro. It is a cliché of dynasty formats that “wide receivers are more valuable than running backs”…but as trivial as that statement seems, it does tend to be the case. Malik Nabers only turned 21 years old in July of this year, and there exists a world where he could produce at a WR1 level for the next decade. Bijan may only be one year older than Nabers but as a running back, the possibility of Robinson being a top-tier fantasy contributor into his early 30s is wishful thinking at best. If you can trade Bijan for Nabers straight up, that would be an incredible move for your dynasty roster – even if it means packaging Robinson with an aging asset or second-round rookie pick, I would be doing what it takes to get that deal done…good luck!
Question #6 – Season-Long Strategy
Hey Ballers. Would you rather roster Garrett Wilson or Brandon Aiyuk rest-of-season? – Jwait
Answer: With the rumor mill going into overdrive over the potential trade of Davante Adams to the Jets, there are two ways of addressing this question – would I rather have Garrett Wilson or Brandon Aiyuk if Adams does land in New York and also would I rather have Garrett Wilson or Brandon Aiyuk if Adams doesn’t land in New York. For me, whether Adams is reunited with his old buddy Aaron Rodgers is a moot point, and the answer to both variants of the question is the same – give me Brandon Aiyuk. It would be a fair assessment to say both of these guys have struggled to get going so far this season – through four games Wilson sits as the WR45 and Aiyuk the WR61. Fantasy managers who invested second-round draft capital into each of these players are undoubtedly beginning to sweat, with the panic alarms well and truly sounding out. Although Aiyuk has yet to find the end zone, or even top 50 receiving yards in any of San Francisco’s opening four games – I am more optimistic that he will turn his fortunes around in comparison to Wilson. The 49ers’ offense has been battered and bruised even before these two teams met in Week 1, with Deebo Samuel and George Kittle both picking up knocks and subsequently missing action – alongside the long-term absences Ricky Pearsall and Christian McCaffrey, the San Francisco offense has yet to feel “complete” at any point this season, and Aiyuk is perhaps a victim of that. Contrast this to the New York Jets‘ offense which hasn’t suffered any major setback…it just looks bad. Gang Green ranks 16th in total passing yards, the 49ers sit third. I’ll take the better player on the better offense, and dare I say…with the better quarterback. Aiyuk > Wilson for me.
Question #7 – Waiver Wire (FAAB Remorse)
How do you feel when you way overbid on FAAB? Are you happy that you got the player you wanted, or sad that you spent so much more than you had to? – CarbMonster
Answer: There are few sweeter feelings in fantasy football than out-bidding your league mates by one solitary dollar and grabbing that must-add player off the waiver wire. The satisfaction of seeing the unsuccessful claims, and knowing that not only did you get your guy, but you did so by spending the exact amount required – no more, no less…I’m getting chills just thinking about it.
However, the warm fuzzies that come from placing the perfect bid and seeing it come to fruition are few and far between, and more often than not as fantasy managers, we find ourselves outbid, or even worse…wasting precious FAAB when we didn’t have to spend up at all.
That said – I’m a glass-half-full kind of guy – I like to think of all the successful $0 bids I’ve made over the years, as well as league-winning pick-ups that may have cost a full FAAB dump…but resulted in a #FootclanTitle. As long as I get my guy, I am happy – after all, there are usually very few waiver wire adds across a season that require a significant portion of your FAAB budget, so why not go for broke early and grab those season-changing players that can help bring home a championship.
Remember, if you’re struggling with just how much of your budget to potentially spend on players each week, you can use the Ballers’ Waiver Wire Rankings to get a rough idea of what Andy, Mike, and Jason would recommend bidding on individual players…and most importantly, know your league.