Fantasy Football Saturday Mailbag for Week 3
Welcome one and all back into the weekly mailbag series where I select a handful of questions from The Fantasy Footballers’ Discord server and give you my red-hot spicy takes to go with your cereal each and every Saturday morning throughout the season (other breakfast options are available). The Ballers’ Discord is home to the biggest and best fantasy football community in the world and is the only place you need to visit if you want to talk about all things fantasy-related. Head over today and get involved with dozens of dedicated channels for start/sit questions, trade advice, and waiver wire insights, as well as exclusive areas that are only available to members of the Footclan.
The dust has settled on Week 2 of the fantasy season, and like many tilting managers, I have lit a candle for my boy Isiah Pacheco, who now looks set to miss the entire season after undergoing surgery to repair a broken fibula. There were almost as many questions in this week’s Footclan mailbag thread as there are potential replacement running back options in Kansas City, so let’s get straight to it!
Question #1 – Waiver Wire
Who are your favorite backup RBs to stash on Sunday before the games start? – bigt
Answer: This is one of my favorite strategies each and every week – right before kickoff in the early window, I take a little sneaky peek at which high-value running back insurance policies are sitting in my league’s free agency pool – and if there’s a guy who I think might be worth a stash, I’ll throw him on the end of my bench at the expense of a depth wide receiver…just in case!
There are two main questions I ask myself when looking for a dart-throw running back stash on a Sunday:
- Are they on a high-powered offense with a clear bell cow at the position?
- Have they seen an increase in usage over the last two to three games?
If the answer to one or both of these questions is yes then we’re in business!
Looking at bell cows – Josh Jacobs saw a league-leading 32 rushing opportunities in the Packers’ Week 2 victory over the Colts, so it’s of little surprise to see him limited in practice all week with a lingering back injury. That level of usage should not, and realistically cannot, continue without the end result being Jacobs missing time. With rookie MarShawn Lloyd currently on the IR, Emanuel Wilson would be the next man up in Green Bay, and definitely worth stashing. The same logic applies here to Trey Benson in Arizona and Ray Davis in Buffalo, who would both be excellent plug-in options should James Conner or James Cook succumb to injury.
On the other side of the coin we have backs who are earning their place on the field, whether it’s through their own high level of performance, or via the mediocrity of those ahead of them on the depth chart…*cough* Rachaad White *cough*. Names to consider here include impressive rookie for the New York Jets, Braelon Allen, draft-day darling Blake Corum in Los Angeles, and of course, the future RB1 for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Bucky Irving.
Question #2 – Season-Long Strategy
Hey Ballers! Taking a Falcon right now. Should I be selling high on Kyren with the injuries to Kupp and Puka? – PooStainsMcGee
Answer: Hmm, username checks out…a little TMI Mr. McGee! I hope you’re sitting as comfortably when you read this answer as you were when you wrote your question…because I have some bad news for you – I don’t think you can sell high on Kyren right now. Through two weeks, Williams sits as the overall RB19 in half-PPR formats – 14th in rushing attempts, 33rd in rushing yards, and a putrid T-65th in Y/A. With Matt Stafford’s two main weapons in the passing game both likely to be out for a few weeks, there is a narrative where Kyren is the main focal point of this offense…but it could be just as likely that opposing defenses elect to completely neutralize the Rams’ run game, safe in the knowledge that the aerial threat consists of Demarcus Robinson, Tyler Johnson, and Colby Parkinson.
I am an optimist (as well as a Kyren manager in my main League of Record), so I really hope the former of the two scenarios above is the one that plays out…but with upcoming matchups against the 49ers and the Bears in the next fortnight, it may be a little rough for Williams leading up to L.A.’s Week 6 bye. He’s a hold–and-hope for me right now – if you can get top-10 value for him, then, by all means, make a move – but I’d be crossing your fingers and toes that we start to see Kyren recreate some of that second-half magic from last season that made him a second-round draft pick this year.
Question #3 – Start/Sit
What is Tyreek Hill’s value now with Tua on IR? Do we still play him as a WR1 over other wide receivers like Rashee Rice, DeVonta Smith, and Rashid Shaheed? – MikeyNandz
Answer: Pour one out for Tyreek Hill’s weekly WR1 status. Before we dive deeper into this question, let’s get one thing straight – the talent of Tyreek Hill is not in question here – he has the skill set of an elite wide receiver, and on pure ability alone, is undoubtedly one of the best in the game at the position…however, all the talent in the world won’t make you a top-12 receiver if Skylar Thompson is throwing you the football week in and week out. There isn’t too much we can take from Miami’s soul-destroying defeat to the Bills on Thursday Night Football in Week 2 – Thompson was only on the field for two full drives, at which point Buffalo already had their 21-point lead. Thompson attempted 14 passes in the final 20 minutes of the game…not a single one was in the direction of the Dolphin’s star wideout Hill. Miami will likely lean heavily on the run game this weekend, and will continue to do so until new addition to the quarterback room “Pro Bowler” Tyler Huntley gets up to speed with the playbook. Tyreek is too good to be anything less than a solid WR2 – even with Thompson under-center – but that most certainly ranks him behind the Rashee Rices and DeVonta Smiths of the world at this time. I still would play him over Shaheed, but the Saints’ speedster will have that big-play ability each week that Hill saw disappear with his franchise quarterback.
Question #4 – Trade Advice
Hey Ballers! What kind of data do you all look at when it comes to evaluating and creating trades? Are trade analyzers a useful tool? I’m looking to improve but I’ve been told in the past my trades are a bit too one sided. – Sklodo
Answer: If I had a dollar for every time I heard a league mate comment about an unfair trade – I could have retired to an exotic island somewhere in the Pacific Ocean oh so long ago.
In an ideal world, a fair trade benefits all teams involved – but in the real world, I want to make sure I feel like a winner every time I, or my trade partner, hits that accept button.
There are a number of data points you can look at when evaluating a potential trade including: Current and projected opportunities – is this player getting a healthy share of the carries/targets on their team, and are there any mitigating circumstances that could cause that to change in the future? Strength of schedule – does the player I am receiving have a favorable run of opponents ahead of them, but also has their past production been inflated due to facing weaker teams in the weeks that have preceded? Roster makeup – do I really need the player I am receiving, or am I already set at that particular position? (Remember to think about this when proposing trades as well). Lastly, and most importantly: Gut feeling – do you want to make the trade? If you have a bad feeling about it…don’t do it.
Trade analyzers can be useful to get a very broad idea of the overall value of a trade, but too often they use out-of-date information and fail to consider the context of your team and league. Feel free to use them, but don’t take their suggestions as gospel.
Question #5 – Season-Long Strategy (Playoff Primer)
How important is it to be careful of players with Week 14 byes? In most leagues Week 14 will be the final week of the fantasy regular season and there are teams on byes that Week! – Frozen_Canadian
Answer: Bonjour! Firstly, kudos to you for looking that far ahead, it’s always a good idea to plan for your matchups in and around the playoffs, but in my honest opinion as we enter Week 3…don’t worry about it. We are only two weeks into the fantasy season, and we still have another 11 fantasy-filled weeks ahead of us before we get to the nail-biting regular-season finale in Week 14. At this stage of the season, I am focusing on winning now, and am not concerning myself with what could be required sometime in early December. Player bye weeks only start to become part of the narrative once we have hit Week 6, and even then, this is only in the instances of trading for players who have yet to have their week off (if a player has already had their bye week when joining your team, you are essentially getting a free game from them).
As your league approaches its trade deadline, that is when I would start to look at your roster and start to think about how player byes in certain weeks could impact your push for a playoff spot…and even then, it’s not a deal-breaker for me. Focus on winning now and try not to worry too much about what lies ahead almost three months down the line. Be sure to use all the amazing tools we have here at The Fantasy Footballers, pile up those W’s early, and secure your playoff spot before any Week 14 issues. Remember – the likelihood of your roster being the same then as it is now is very slim.
Question #6 – League Rules
What is your guys’ least favorite waiver system – Gunfur
Answer: Let me start by saying that there is no right or wrong waiver system for your league – the best one is that which suits the needs of all the members of the league, and allows everyone to participate in a way that they feel is fair and equal.
That said…get Waiver Priority outta here – especially if it’s based on reverse standings every week. The Free Agent Acquisition Budget (or FAAB) system is my personal favorite and the one that I believe provides the fairest and most equal opportunities for any team in the league to acquire the players they want for their rosters. I prefer to keep the FAAB set-up fairly simple in the leagues I manage – a $100 budget to begin the season, and if the league is experienced enough – the ability to trade FAAB as well as players throughout the year. Using the $100 starting budget makes things a little easier to track mid-season when expert analysts (such as those here at Ballers HQ) give their thoughts on what percentage of your budget should be spent on the best pickups each week. FAAB creates a level playing field from the start of the year and ensures that just because a team in the league had a bad Week 1, doesn’t mean they should have carte-blanche on landing a Jordan Mason or Isaiah Likely ahead of Week 2. If you’re still using a priority system, make it your priority to lobby your league and get that changed for 2025!
Question #7 – Dynasty Strategy
Who has moved the most (up or down) in your dynasty rankings after 2 weeks of football? – Trogdor
Answer: It may still be early in the season, and as all good fantasy managers know, you shouldn’t overreact to what we’ve seen on the field in just two games (whether it be good or bad)…but sometimes it’s too hard not to. A real dynasty winner for me heading into Week 3 is Detroit Lions wide receiver Jameson Williams. After missing most of his rookie season in 2022 due to the ACL tear he suffered in the NCAA Championship Game, before a relatively poor 2023 campaign which saw the Alabama alum put up only 24 receptions for 354 yards – the draft stock of the former number 12 overall pick was at an all-time low. We heard the Lions’ coaching staff talk about how much they wanted to get Williams involved in the offense, and it felt as if it was time to change the record – but after back-to-back top-24 performances to start the season, we may finally be seeing the player who led the NCAA in receiving yards and touchdowns in his final year.
A receiver heading in the other direction for me however is the Jacksonville Jaguars’ Christian Kirk. With the offseason departure of Calvin Ridley, Kirk was slated to be the de-facto number one receiving option on this roster, alongside tight end and PPR machine Evan Engram…but first-round rookie Brian Thomas Jr. had other ideas. The season may only be two games old, but it certainly appears that BTJ is already the go-to weapon for Trevor Lawrence in the passing game, with Kirk being relegated to the third or fourth read behind Engram and possibly even another offseason acquisition, Gabe Davis…I’m out.
Question #8 – Keep/Trade/Cut (Bonus Question)
Howdy Ho Ballerinos! Keep/Trade/Cut “Bird” edition – Hawk, Falcon, Raven – Caliberry207
Answer: Surely there can be only one correct answer here, and that is to keep the avian namesake of Ducer and Ballers’ resident birdman – the Falcon. I will trade the Raven due to my fondness for the works of Edgar Allan Poe, and cut the Hawk, for no other reason than the role it plays as one-half of the worst fantasy football team name of 2024…sound the shame bell for anyone with that awful Vikings TE/Dolphins QB amalgamation abomination…you all know who you are!