Fantasy Football Saturday Mailbag for Week 18

Good Morning Footclan! And for the final time this season…welcome to the Saturday Morning Mailbag! It may be Week 18, and according to Andy Holloway’s recent Twitter/X poll, 90% of you have already said farewell to the 2024 fantasy season…but that means there’s still 10% of the Footclan fighting it out for a #FootclanTitle…so if you’re still asking questions over at The Fantasy Footballers’ Discord server, I’m still here to answer them! Remember, The Ballers’ Discord is home to the biggest and best online fantasy football community in the world and is your one-stop shop if you’re looking to talk about all things fantasy football. The Fantasy Footballers Podcast is here all year round, and so is the Discord – so head over today, register your username, and start interacting with the thousands of members we have waiting to talk ball. There are dozens of dedicated channels for start/sit questions, trade advice, and waiver wire insights, as well as exclusive areas that are only available to you – the loyal members of the Footclan.

There are two types of people reading this column today: the real die-hard fantasy football players who like to consume as much content as possible, feeding their hunger for knowledge day after day after day…and then there are the poor, unfortunate souls who are still competing in their league, despite approximately 50% of fantasy relevant players already sunning themselves on the beaches of Cancun. Congratulations to all of you sitting at home, starting your weekend reading this column with your mobile device in one hand and your recently acquired #FootclanTitle in the other – put your feet up, relax, and enjoy the weekend’s action. The rest of you…you better buckle up because this week will be rough, particularly if you got to your title game off the back of performances from any Eagles, Rams, Chiefs, or Bills. There may be less at stake for the majority of fantasy managers this week, but the Fantasy Footballers’ Mailbag is as busy as ever…so let’s dive right in!

Question #1 – Way Too Early Sophomore Wide Receiver Rankings

Hey Boys! What’s your waaaaay too early rankings for this WR class as sophomores next year? – Freckle Foot

Answer: 2024 was a heck of a year for rookie WRs in the NFL, with no fewer than five first-year pass-catchers finishing inside the top-32 at the position on the season (through 17 weeks, of course…we ain’t counting no week 18!). April’s draft saw an inordinate amount of capital spent on stud wideouts, with seven being selected in the first round alone. Day two saw a further nine potential superstars finding their way onto NFL rosters…and with Keon Coleman, Ladd McConkey, and Ja’Lynn Polk all being taken within the first five picks of round two, we saw a WR being taken on average every three picks before Jonathon Brooks – the first running back selected – was selected by Carolina.

So, with such big promise, how did they all actually perform? 

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Despite being the clear top prospect in the draft at the position, it was less than a stellar introduction to the professional ranks for Marvin Harrison Jr. – the 4th overall selection struggled to create any real chemistry with Kyler Murray in Arizona. He did have us going after his 30-point WR1 performance in week 2…but that was as good as it got for the former Buckeye on the year, finishing inside the top-12 only once more over the remaining 14 games,

Where MHJ disappointed, Brian Thomas Jr. excelled. The 23rd overall pick in April’s draft was a sensation for the Jaguars, regardless of who was throwing him the football. With Trevor Lawrence missing back-to-back games before eventually going down for the year in Week 13, many analysts thought that would spell the end for BTJ’s promising rookie year… but Mac Jones had other ideas. Thomas finished his debut campaign with five consecutive top-24 finishes, including back-to-back top-5 weeks to start the fantasy playoffs…what a guy!

BTJ wasn’t the only rookie pass-catcher to impress; both Malik Nabers and Jason Moore favorite Ladd McConkey lit up the league in their maiden campaigns – Nabers joining Thomas in the top-10, finishing up the year as the overall WR7 – with Ladd ending up less than one-point outside WR1 territory, as the overall WR14. Credit where it is due to Malik Nabers, who somehow managed his lofty fantasy finish with a Frankenstein’s Monster-esque combination of Daniel Jones, Tommy DeVito, and Drew Lock as his quarterback starting for the G-Men at quarterback throughout the course of the season. 

Before ranking my top-10 rookie wideouts ahead of their sophomore season, I need to give a huge shoutout to my boy – and a man who won plenty of #FootclanTitles with his overall WR13 performance throughout the fantasy playoffs – Jalen McMillan of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Nobody scored more touchdowns at the position over the final four weeks of the year than the 92nd overall pick – with his 19 receptions for 242 yards the perfect audition for a starting role in 2025…even if Chris Godwin makes a return to Tampa. 

2025 Sophomore Wide Receiver Rankings

Question #2 – Dynasty Value Check (Tyreek Hill)

Happy New Year Ballerooskis!! What is Tyreek Hill’s dynasty value? I’m not exactly sure what to expect in return if I trade him! Love the show! – Mustache_A_Question

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Answer: Well, Mustache_A_Question, whatever it was heading into the season, it’s a heck of a lot lower now. If Tyreek suits up for 2025, he should be a top-12 guy…but let’s be honest for a moment: I don’t think anyone has the slightest idea if Hill returns for a tenth season in the NFL…himself included. Cheetah is a showman, both on and off the field – and this season, there’s been way more to talk about in his personal life than there has been in a Dolphins uniform. Whether it was his 11th-hour arrest ahead of the season opener back in September or the series of enigmatic tweets hinting at his potential unhappiness in South Beach- one thing we are guaranteed with the future Hall of Famer is entertainment. 

Let’s assume that Hill sees out the remainder of his contract with the Dolphins and returns to Miami for a fourth season – what might that look like? Well, now on the wrong side of 30 years old, the Cheetah still very much lives up to his nickname and remains one of the most electric and speedy players in the league – so I, for one, am not worried about him losing a step any time soon. How about his quarterback? Well, it was a bumpy year for Tua Tagovailoa, but after missing four weeks with another concussion-related injury, Miami’s $212.4 million franchise QB stayed on the field for the remainder of the season – posting the highest completion percentage amongst all passers in that 10 week period. Ok, so far, so good – what about his head coach, Mike McDaniel? Nope, he isn’t going anywhere either – he’s contracted until 2028, and with Miami still in playoff contention after weathering Tua’s concussion storm, he’s done enough to keep himself off the hot seat…for now, at least.

So, what does it all mean for Tyreek’s dynasty value? Well, for me – he’s a hold. After a down year, his relative value is in the mud compared with just a few short months ago…so trying to move him on now will ultimately be detrimental to your roster in the long run. Hill likely will burn bright as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 for another two years, and then, smoke bomb…he’s gone. I don’t see the Cheetah aging out and fading into WR3/4 territory – he’ll go out on his own terms, and if his previous comments are anything to go on – that’s probably going to be still at the top of his game. If you want to sell him, he’s still a very valuable asset and could be moved for a low-end RB1 or one of the more elite tight ends not named Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, or Sam LaPorta. 2025 will be much better for Miami, Tua, and Tyreek – keep a hold of him and go down with the ship…the Championship, that is.

Question #3 – 2025 Keepers

Happy New Year Ballers! I have a two “per position” keeper limit – who should I hold onto for 2025? I have Chuba Hubbard, James Cook, and Jahmyr Gibbs at running back; and Garrett Wilson, Malik Nabers, Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Rashee Rice, and Brian Thomas Jr. at wide receiver – The Moore-ne Supremacy

Answer: Happy New Year to you, too, Moore-ne Supremacy (outstanding username, btw). It looks like you’ve got quite the decision on your hands here, but with so much talent to choose from, you’re still going to be stacked in 2025, no matter which direction you end up taking.

Let’s start with the RBs, shall we? A nice and simple two-from-three scenario here, and although he may have just gotten paid – Chuba Hubbard is the odd man out here for me. Don’t hear what I’m not saying – this has been a monumental season for the fourth-year back in Carolina, and his career-best 14.7 FPPG, coupled with his 12th-round ADP, arguably made him one of, if not the best selection in this year’s draft…but it still wasn’t as good as James Cook or Jahmyr Gibbs. Sure, Gibbs has the Knuckles to his Sonic in the form of David Montgomery, but the sophomore back and the veteran played together on 15 occasions this year, and Gibbs was still the RB3 in that time – if a nearly 28-year old David Mopportunity starts to slow down, things are only going to get better for Gibbs. With Cook facing very little competition in Buffalo, and Hubbard set to compete with Jonathon Brooks for touches in 2025, it makes the choice even easier.

Ok, that was easy, the WRs; however…that’s where it gets a little more complicated. If it’s a straight-up keeper league with no round-specific penalties, you simply have to keep Puka Nacua…that’s not up for debate. The record-breaking (well, for one year at least) sophomore wideout may have missed the entire first half of the season, but he more than made up for lost time after returning in Week 8, posting 4 top-12 performances and another 4 top-24 weeks over the remainder of the season. Nacua’s 16.6 FPPG ranks behind only Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, Chris Godwin, and Tee Higgins on the year – he’s an absolute stud, and as the undisputed number one for Matthew Stafford, a locked-in WR1 in 2025.

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Now it gets interesting. For me, it’s down to two guys here – one who is on track to surpass Nacua’s rookie reception record and another debutant who could surpass the 246 fantasy points Puka put up in his maiden year. I am, of course,e referring to the New York Giants’ Malik Nabers and Jacksonville’s Brian Thomas Jr. You can see from the table in Question 1 that I prefer BTJ to Nabers in 2025, but it’s close – and the only differentiator is that I know who Thomas’ quarterback is going to be in his sophomore year. Trevor Lawrence will be back under center for the Jags by the time week 1 rolls around, allowing him and Thomas to pick right back up where he left off in 2024 – but just who is airing it out to Malik Nabers come next September gives me cause for concern. We have already seen that it doesn’t seem to really matter who plays QB for the Giants; Malik can still get it done – and Shedeur Sanders would be a significant upgrade on anything he had to play with in 2024…but I fear change. BTJ feels safer, but Nabers could crack that top-5 if everything falls into place for the G-Men come April.

Question #4 – Trade Advice (Dynasty Superflex)

Should I trade Josh Allen to rebuild in a Dynasty SuperFlex? My team is the definition of mid – consolation bracket champ.

Answer: If your username is any indication of how your dynasty team is performing, then maybe it is time for a little shake-up…but if that involves trading away the number one SuperFlex Dynasty asset, I would be expecting a king’s ransom in return. He’s not quite been named the Regular Season MVP quite yet, but it’s only a matter of time until the man – who I consider to be the best quarterback in the National Football League – is presented with his crown. I am an unashamed Josh Allen fan-boy, and as such was positively seething when he lost out to Lamar Jackson in 2023’s MVP race despite statistically being the better player…the man had over 4,800 total yards and 44 combined touchdowns, come on people! Well, a year on and how the turn tables. Jackson is the runaway QB1 for fantasy purposes and leads Allen across all relevant statistical categories…but after leading the Bills to a 13-3 record on the year through 16 weeks and so far being the only QB to topple the Chiefs and their Devil Magic, 2025 will be Allen’s year.

So, what does this mean for your dyno squad? Well, in short, unless you have another every-week QB1 and at least two startable signal callers on your bench…Allen should be going nowhere. Nobody in the National Football League – aside from last year’s MVP and possibly Jayden Daniels – possesses the upside that Allen offers consistently on a week-to-week basis. Sure, every week we see a couple of outliers at the position (Drew Lock QB3 in week 17, anyone?), but nobody has been as reliable at the position as Josh Stallion for over half a decade now – with Buffalo’s number 17 finishing inside the top-2 every single year since 2020.

If you feel like you have to trade him away, then I would be looking for a bona fide stud WR- we’re talking Ja’Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson here – plus draft capital. If you’re short at RB, then only the best will do; again, we’re looking here at Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs, plus a little extra on the side. If you can target the manager in your league who owns any of these players and they are struggling at the QB position, then you may get a deal done…but don’t sell yourself short. Allen is the golden goose of SuperFlex Dynasty, and provided you have startable assets at the other skill positions, you’re always in with a chance of winning on any given week. Keep hold of the MVP-to-be, draft yourself a couple of high-upside rookies, and get ready to change your username to Championship bracket champ! Good luck in 2025!

Question #5 – 2025 Bounce Back Candidates

Howdy Ballers! Who are some players who underperformed this year that you think will bounce back next year? – DR THUNDERBONE

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Answer: Ah yes, the annual “Who disappointed this season but will do better next year?” conundrum. I talked a couple of weeks ago in this column about the biggest fantasy busts of the season, and whilst some of those names make an appearance here… there are a few who may just be heading for the fantasy scrapyard in the near future (I’m looking at you, Travis Etienne). 

Let’s get the obvious picks out of the way – one of my biggest fantasy busts on the 2024 season – and arguably the one that stung fantasy managers the most (myself included) – was the consensus WR1 back in draft season, The Cheetah himself…Tyreek Hill. Let’s start with the bad news – even with Tua Tagovailoa back from injury, Hill averaged just 12.9 FPPG over his final eight games of the season – good enough to place him as the overall WR21 during that spell. The worse news – Tyreek is no longer the target hog he was in South Beach, seeing his share of looks in the Miami passing game plummet from 33% in 2023 to just 25% this season – thanks in part to the emergence of Jonnu Smith over the back half of the season. Ok, that’s enough doom and gloom, let’s get to the good news…he’s Tyreek freakin’ Hill! Mark my words: Hill will end the 2025 season back in WR1 territory, and after this year’s showing, we should be looking to get him at a significant discount in redraft formats come August.

Some other less-than-adventurous bounce-back candidate picks include the RB duo of Christian McCaffrey and Breece Hall. “But Paul, Christian McCaffrey was injured for most of the season,” I hear you cry…yes, he was…but in the three full games CMC started, he averaged a mere 10.9 FPPG in Half-Point formats…less than half of the 22.4 FPPG he averaged just 12-months ago. Whilst McCaffrey managers can write this year off as injury-plagued, the same can’t be said for those unfortunate enough to have spent a first-round pick on Breece Hall and had to bear witness to 15 full weeks of his Jekyll and Hyde-style performances on the frustratingly inconsistent New York Jets. As a Dolphins fan, it pains me to say this, but – the Jets offense is really good – or at least it could be if they could pull it all together week in, week out. Hall only missed one game in 2024, and despite finishing as an RB1 on four occasions, the electric third-year rusher ended his season as the overall RB18 – his 4.3 Y/A, his lowest since entering the league.

Two more players who weren’t necessarily bad but who I felt did underperform in 2024 were Chicago Bears WR D.J. Moore and Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert. Don’t hear what I’m not saying – Moore was drafted as the WR19 and finished the year at WR23, hardly a disappointment – and Herbs actually outperformed his ADP by two whole spots, finishing up as the QB14 after being drafted as the QB16 in the eleventh round…but it could, and possibly should have been so much better for both men. Moore took a long time to get going with rookie QB Caleb Williams, and once the number one overall pick finally started to get some confidence…it was Keenan Allen who emerged as the go-to target in the Bears’ passing game. Similar can be said for Herbert – little was expected of him for fantasy given the “run first” narrative that surrounded the Los Angeles Ravens…sorry, I mean Chargers during the off-season, particularly after their addition of Greg Roman favorites J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards – but once G-Ro and Jim Harbaugh realized just how good their passing game could be with Herbert and Ladd McConkey – the sky was the limit. Herbs was the QB10 from Week 8 onwards, finishing inside the top 12 on seven separate occasions. He won’t have the upside of Josh Allen or Jayden Daniels, but Big Herbs could very well be next year’s Joe Burrow – I, for one, will be targeting a Chargers QB/WR stack with La-dee-dee.

Question #6 – Keep/Trade/Cut (Can’t I Cut Them All? Edition)

Keep trade cut:

• Kickers

• Waiver Priority

• Week 18 Championship

 – CarbMonster

Answer: It seems fitting that we round out the Week 18 Saturday Mailbag by giving Week 18 Championships the respect they deserve…absolutely zero!

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Entering Week 17 (aka Real Championship Week), I would have said this was an easy keep for the kicker position…but after seeing so many #FootclanTitles lost off the back of missed PATs from either Jake Bates or Jake Moody, I may have to reconsider my position on this one. Kickers are a total anomaly, and for me, score way too much in most league setups. I fully understand it’s a high-pressure position, but Brandon Aubrey scoring more than A.J. Brown and Ja’Marr Chase in week 16 – both of whom had 97 receiving yards and a touchdown – just doesn’t sit well with me.

Rolling or reverse standing waivers are an abomination – going by strict Highlander rules – there can be only one – and that is, of course, the FAAB system. However, if you do play in a league that still utilizes a more traditional waiver format, chances are a good portion of your league mates don’t pay too much attention to the wire each week anyway, or they would have voted in a FAAB setup…so there will be opportunities to exploit the system every now and again by holding onto your number one priority spot.

It’s a tough one, but I couldn’t handle the frustration caused by not landing the guy I want on a Wednesday morning just because one of my league mates has a slightly poorer record than I do – or worse – because they marginally lost in Week 1.

Keep Kickers, Trade Waiver Priority, Cut Week 18 Championships.

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That’s a wrap for The Saturday Mailbag for another year, Footclan – I hope I’ve been able to help some of you over these last 18 weeks, or at the very least, given you something to read over your morning coffee each and every weekend. Good luck to any of you sick, sick people out there still battling for a #FootclanTitle this weekend…have fun starting Blake Corum as your RB1.