Fantasy Football Expected Points & Opportunity: Week 8

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Welcome to the Expected Points & Opportunity article for Week 8!

In this article, we will use my Expected Fantasy Points model to highlight the most valuable players at every position over the last few games. As you already know, volume matters tremendously for fantasy football. However, it is important to remember that not every opportunity is created equal and that a player’s value will vary based on their unique usage and offensive ecosystem. Expected Fantasy Points can help quantify each player’s projected fantasy value based on a variety of factors – such as the down, distance, depth, and location of their opportunities.

The key metrics used in this article are:

  • Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): The average (or expected) fantasy value of a player’s opportunities. This metric is synonymous with volume
  • Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE): The difference between a player’s actual fantasy production and their Expected Fantasy Points. This metric is synonymous with efficiency and is subject to regression week over week

What do these metrics tell us?

  • My model analyzes fantasy production in terms of volume (xFP) and efficiency (FPOE)
  • Players with high xFP are more likely to produce consistently, while players who rely too heavily on FPOE may experience volatility in their production. In other words, we want to ideally target players that rank highly in xFP
  • xFP is by far the more stable and predictive metric. However, it is not a ranking system. It is only one part of the equation and should be used in conjunction with other metrics to get a complete picture of a player’s value
  • While I caution investing in players who rely on FPOE, I would NOT avoid them entirely. Players who depend on efficiency simply have a higher range of outcomes. In other words, these players can simultaneously raise the ceiling and lower the floor of your lineups

If you are newer to this series, be sure to check out my full series primer where I break down my Expected Fantasy Points model in more detail. The full version of this article is available only in the DFS Pass.

If you have any additional questions, feel free to reach out on X or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.

RUNNING BACKS

  • Jonathan Taylor is back to producing RB1 numbers, coming off a game in which he was the RB5 in Expected Fantasy Points (17.7) and the RB7 in Half-PPR scoring (19.5). If we take a look at the backfield distribution in Week 7, Taylor and Zack Moss were still in a committee as both finished with exactly a 50% snap share. However, Week 7 was the first week in which Taylor dominated the high-value touches. He led the backfield in route participation (48%), target share (18.2%), and rushing attempts inside the five-yard line (100%). Moss will clearly still retain a role, though I do believe we are finally seeing Taylor take over the Colts’ backfield. Assuming his Week 7 usage was a preview of things to come, I fully expect Taylor to remain in RB1 territory for the rest of the season.

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