Fantasy Football Day Trader: Week 8 Edition

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Welcome to the Fantasy Football Day Trader, where I present my favorite players to invest in as well as those to fade.  Fantasy football is a lot like the stock market, and this article series is meant to assist you with your investment portfolio.  I’m here to present my fantasy opinions for your consideration, and these are players that I’m actively trying to trade for/away in my personal leagues.  This article series will present fantasy players that I’m looking to move and the price tag that I think is fair.  You should always try to assess your trade partner’s valuation of players before jumping to a price tag that you assume is fair.  If you’re new to fantasy or if you’d like a refresher on general trade strategy, we have an evergreen article from 2019 to help: The Art of the Fantasy Football Trade.

Fantasy Football Day Trader: Week 8 Edition

The fantasy gods have been cruel this year, at least to me.  Scoring this season is lower than usual, and it seems like we’re seeing the ball spread out more than ever.  And don’t even mention the injuries.  Yikes.  This is the part of the fantasy season where you have a good feel for where you stand in your league.  Look at your record, look at points for, and look at points against.  This lets you assess what you need to do moving forward.  I think you should be viewing trades in three-week windows rather than “permanent.”  After all, a lot can change in three weeks.

I see a lot of questions on Twitter asking, “I want to trade away Player x, who should I target in return?” Or “I want Player y, who should I give up?” Stop.  Take a step back.  The best trades are all about finding ways to improve both teams, at least in savvy leagues.  First, identify what position group you want to target.  Do you want a stud?  Do you just want depth?  What is your value proposition – what do you have to offer in return?  Do you have three studs and you want to trade one away for depth or an upgrade at another position group?  What do your leaguemates’ teams look like?  I always approach trades by first assessing my team and then identifying a few teams that look like a good match in terms of what I want to acquire and what I have available to give up.  Approach the teams for a trade and then be open-minded in negotiation.  Too many people go in with a strict plan and then stop the trade discussion if it doesn’t fit the exact mold they had in mind.  Also, get creative – do you want to acquire extra FAAB for later in the season?  Can you sneak a defense or kicker upgrade in with the trade?  I recommend going in with the same approach as if you were going on a first date with someone – look for mutual interests, keep an open mind, and ask a lot of questions.

Good luck and happy trading.  There’s a handful of people that have asked why it’s been a while since the last FFDT article…it’s been a busy fall, to be honest.  I’ve got a 3yo, 4yo, 5yo, and a life to balance.  And some minor life events happened, which maybe I’ll write about in a future article.  But I assure you that all is well in the Greenwood household!  And I hope the same for you and your family.

Investments (Trade For)

JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR, KC)
JuJu is the WR29 on the season so far on a points-per-game basis (10.9).  He’s been a fine flex play but has had a couple of good weeks in a row.  More importantly, he is tied for the 12th most red zone targets in the NFL (nine) and has a solid 67% catch rate for these targets.  That’s more red zone targets than Cooper Kupp and Deebo Samuel, among others.  JuJu also has the ninth most yards after the catch in the league and the 16th most expected fantasy points added per PlayerProfiler (efficiency metric).  The Chiefs are entering a bye week but then have the seventh easiest strength of schedule for wide receivers from Weeks 9-12.  I think it’s a good buy window, especially if the existing manager needs a replacement during the current Week 8 bye.  Would it really be that crazy if JuJu produced at solid WR2 levels now that he’s acclimated to a new team?  I’m taking a gamble on JuJu – he’s a solid depth piece that can go in your flex spot every week and has multi-touchdown potential in any game.  Sometimes the non-sexy trades help you sneak in another win or two during the regular season.  Price Tag: Flex | Risk Rating: 2/5

Christian Kirk (WR, JAX)|
Kirk has been a sneaky solid player so far this season, currently tied with Deebo Samuel at 12.1 points per game.  He’s seen the 7th most red zone targets and the 4th most receptions inside the 10-yard line of the red zone.  He already has four touchdowns on the season, but the way they’re using him should continue to support relatively high touchdown production…especially with James Robinson out of the picture.  Kirk has a 23% target share on the Jaguars, where he’s been building a relationship with Trevor Lawrence.  After a tough Week 8 matchup versus the Broncos’ defense, the Jaguars have the third easiest strength of schedule for wide receivers from Weeks 9-14, which carries you to the fantasy playoffs.  Kirk is another non-sexy target that doesn’t carry the same name value as others producing at similar levels.  Kirk is a pretty solid WR2 that can probably be acquired at a flex value.  Plus, I love players that see a lot of red zone targets because it gives you the chance at a 2-3 touchdown game.  Price Tag: Flex | Risk Rating: 3.5/5

Gus Edwards (RB, BAL)
The Ravens love Gus Edwards – the coaching staff, the players, etc.  He knows the system, and he’s always been a super high-efficiency back.  Over the past few years, he’s probably been the most underrated backup RB in the league when healthy. Gus had a really solid Week 7, finishing as the RB8 overall with 18.6 fantasy points.  He also had four red zone rush attempts.  Gus had more carries this past week than J.K. Dobbins has seen in one game in his entire career (which is baffling, but it still shows the Ravens love Gus).  As of this writing, J.K. Dobbins has been placed on the IR and is expected to miss four to six weeks.  Gus is by far the best option in the backfield and should get a solid workload for RB2-level production.  Gus does have some concerns, as he is just coming back from an ACL tear from the last offseason, and he’s 27, which is not exactly young in the RB world.  The current manager probably got Gus off waivers and might be looking to “sell high” and get a return on their risky asset.  I’d throw a trade offer out there and see where it takes you.  Price Tag: Flex | Risk Rating: 4.5/5

Kareem Hunt (RB, CLE)
Kareem is a super-talented back on a run-first Browns team.  He’s the RB2 on the team behind Nick Chubb, who is crushing it this season. This is always a concern for fantasy managers, which leads to a potential discount for those looking to acquire him.  But Kareem has been productive himself.  Hunt has seen the sixth most red zone rushing attempts (18), the ninth most evaded tackles (32), and the fifth most expected points added in the league.  He’s currently the RB23 on the season but has the upside to be a solid RB2 (or RB1 if traded).  There are currently rumors that the Browns are listening to trade requests from other teams.  If traded, Hunt would see a production increase and immediately become the alpha on the majority of other teams.  Hunt gets involved in the passing game as well, which could help his production once Deshaun joins the team in Week 13.  Kareem is a talented back with upside.  Price Tag: low-end RB2 / Flex | Risk Rating: 4/5

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Taysom Hill (TE, NO)
Taysom Hill is the weirdest player in the NFL.  But the Saints like him, and he tends to steal work in short-yardage and goal line situations.  He has six touchdowns on the season and is one of the most likely players to score on a week-to-week basis based on usage, even if just given 1-2 attempts.  Hill is a player that’s hard to quantify in fantasy.  There aren’t very many tight ends that I’d rather start over Hill, and you might be able to trade for him on the cheap.  In the disgusting landscape that we have at tight end, Hill has about as much weekly upside as anyone besides the top-2 studs.  He’s the kind of player that you could target as a throw-in piece in a bigger trade.  Price Tag: low-end flex | Risk Rating: 2/5

Fades (Trade Away)

Damien Harris (RB, NE)
This is Rhamondre Stevenson’s backfield now.  This has been especially true since Week 4 when Bailey Zappe took over.  If you saw the Pats vs Bears game, you saw that Zappe looks to target Stevenson in the backfield, and it’s looking like Zappe may have overtaken Mac Jones.  Stevenson is the pass catcher and has been outproducing Harris on the ground as well.  Damien Harris still carries a bit of name value, and I’d be looking to sell at flex value to get out from under him while you can!  I wouldn’t panic and sell him for nothing though as the RB landscape is brutal this year.  Price Tag: flex | Risk Rating: 1.5/5

Najee Harris (RB, PIT)
Harris was a fantasy darling last season due to a super high workload.  Most fantasy analysts warned managers about expectations for the 2022 season on a weak Pittsburgh offense.  Harris has seen a high workload but has failed to produce as a top-12 RB so far through Week 7.  Harris is rushing for an average of 3.3 yards per carry on an offense that ranks second to last in points scored per game.  Plus, he’s playing with a rookie quarterback, so the future looks grim at best.  Najee carries name value and could be packaged with another player to upgrade your RB position or to get a solid player at another position.  His name value is decaying as we speak, act now! Price Tag: High-end RB2 | Risk Rating: 3.5/5

Marquise Brown (WR, ARI)
Hollywood has been a stud this season but was just placed on the IR.  Reports suggest that he’ll miss six weeks and our injury expert Matthew Betz warns managers that Brown will likely take an additional few weeks to return to 100%, given that he’s not able to stress the healing fracture during those six weeks.  The earliest Brown will return is Week 12, but the team has a Week 13 bye, so it’s likely we won’t see Hollywood return to action until the fantasy playoffs.  Do you really want to trust Hollywood in his first week back from injury in your fantasy playoffs?  For me, I’d have to wait at least a week, which means Brown might not enter my starting roster until Week 15 or so.  That’s a long time to be holding a player, especially considering that teammate DeAndre Hopkins returned from suspension this past week and will take a sizeable target share from Kyler.  I’d be looking to capitalize on the name and get value for Hollywood now.  The best manager to target here is one who has a solid record and can afford to hold Hollywood on their bench.  Don’t get me wrong, I LOVED Hollywood this season, he’s probably my most rostered player, so this pains me to say, but trade while you can.  Price Tag: WR2 | Risk Rating: 4/5 

CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL)
CeeDee has a ton of name value for someone who hasn’t produced at elite levels yet in the NFL.  He’s the WR25 so far this season on a points-per-game basis, and his QB Dak is just returning to the team.  There’s reason for optimism for Lamb, but there’s also been two and a half seasons’ worth of somewhat disappointing production.  Don’t get me wrong, Lamb is solid.  But we haven’t seen any evidence to show he can be a top-12 receiver in the league.  Now is a point in the season where you have a storyline for the arrow to be pointing up.  I think I’d try to package him with another player to upgrade at WR or even get Christian Kirk PLUS.  Price Tag: High-End WR2 | Risk Rating: 5/5

Comments

Bradley says:

This is what it costed to get juju lol
Me
Rb:fournette
Rb:james Robinson
Te:mark andrews
Them
Rb:joe mixon
Wr:juju
Te:dalton shultz

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