Fantasy Court: The Case for Dalton Kincaid in 2024 (Fantasy Football)
This article is part of the annual Fantasy Court series. Be sure to check out The Case AGAINST Dalton Kincaid by Parker Hagen for the opposing view.
Opening Statement
It’s a pleasure to return to fantasy court. It’s hard to believe that this is my sixth season of making momentous arguments for or against controversial fantasy football picks. Yet throughout all of my historic cases, I’ve never taken a fantasy stance at the tight end position. That changes today, as I feel it is my civic duty to take up the mantle for Dalton Kincaid. Let me convince you why the second-year tight end is poised to break out, as I make the case for Kincaid in 2024.
Rookie Recap
Before diving into the rationale for securing Kincaid in 2024 fantasy drafts, let’s take a moment to recap his rookie season in 2023. He got off to a relatively slow start, which is not uncommon for rookie tight ends, and did not top seven fantasy points in a game over the first five weeks. He missed Week 6 with a concussion, then exploded onto the scene with five consecutive TE1 finishes from Weeks 7-11. Over that span, he averaged 11.8 fantasy points/game on a 24% target share. That is a 17-game pace of 199.9 fantasy points, which would have made him the TE1 last season.
Of course, as I’m sure my opposition will be quick to point out, that stretch admittedly came when fellow Bills tight end Dawson Knox was sidelined with an injury. While true, it doesn’t change the fact that we saw a glimpse of Kincaid’s ceiling during that stretch. It’s also worth pointing out that Kincaid finished his rookie campaign strong with 10.8 fantasy points/game on a 20% target share from Weeks 17-20 with Knox and the rest of Buffalo’s offensive weapons healthy. It may seem odd to see Weeks 17-20 referenced in a fantasy football article, but while we aren’t competing in our made-up game about a game during that timeframe, it’s when the real football players are taking it most seriously.
Opportunity Knocks
Moving on to the present day, there has been a shakeup among pass catchers in Buffalo this offseason. Gone are the 317 targets that went to Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, and a host of supporting pass catchers for the Bills in 2023. That’s a whopping 58.1% target share no longer accounted for in Buffalo. The 91 targets the Kincaid saw last season are the most for any Bill returning in 2024.
Buffalo did address the need for new pass catchers this offseason, though the moves didn’t do much to move the needle, especially for fantasy. The biggest addition is Keon Coleman, a rookie with a questionable production profile who they traded down to select in the second round. They also brought in journeymen Curtis Samuel, Mack Hollins, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Chase Claypool, and KJ Hamler, none of whom have ever topped a 19% target share for an NFL team. The target competition, and I use that term lightly, brought into Buffalo over the offseason does not threaten Kincaid’s path to becoming the Bills’ top target in 2024.
This leads us down the probable path of Kincaid being the top target in Buffalo this season. What would that look like? I decided to investigate by starting with tight ends since 2014 who were targeted at least 100 times. I then isolated the instances where these tight ends were the number one target on their team, which narrowed the field to 35. I further looked at how many targets went to the second and third options on those respective teams. I compiled all of these seasons into the table below.
There is a lot to digest here, not to mention some obscure but fun fantasy names from the past (Hello Dennis Pitta and Gary Barnidge!). A sample size of 35 allows us to get a reliable average for this type of season over the last decade and shows us a plausible outcome for the Bills in 2024. It is perfectly reasonable to project Kincaid for nearly 125 targets, Curtis Samuel for around 100, and James Cook or the random wide receiver of your choice in the range of 70.
Can I Interest You in Some Positive Regression?
Aiming for target leaders in your fantasy draft is generally a good idea. Aiming for the target leader in an elite offense with an MVP-caliber quarterback is even better. With Josh Allen leading the Bills to a top-six finish or better in scoring for four consecutive seasons, that’s exactly what you get in Kincaid.
Despite finishing as the QB1 in three of the last four seasons, Josh Allen is actually due for some positive regression, at least as far as passing touchdowns are concerned. The table below shows how Allen has scored his touchdowns since breaking out in 2020.
| Year | Att | Comp % | Pass Yards | Pass TDs | TD % | Rush TDs | Total TDs |
| 2020 | 572 | 69.2% | 4544 | 37 | 6.5% | 8 | 45 |
| 2021 | 646 | 53.3% | 4405 | 36 | 5.6% | 6 | 42 |
| 2022 | 567 | 63.3% | 4283 | 35 | 6.2% | 7 | 42 |
| 2023 | 579 | 66.5% | 4305 | 29 | 5.0% | 15 | 44 |
| AVG | 591 | 63.1% | 4384 | 34.3 | 5.8% | 9 | 43.3 |
As you can see, Allen has been a model of consistency, accounting for at least 42 total touchdowns in four consecutive seasons. The abnormal part is how the passing-to-rushing touchdown ratio played out in 2023. Based on historical tendencies and mathematical probabilistic regression, Allen should run for fewer touchdowns in 2024 but make up for it by throwing more. That is a great thing for Kincaid.
Last season, 15 of Allen’s 29 passing touchdowns went to a combination of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. plus a touchdown apiece for Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty. They’ve all left town, opening the door for more touchdowns to Kincaid. He’s due for some positive regression himself. As I detailed in my “Anomaly or New Norm?” article, Kincaid’s touchdown rate of 45.5 targets/TD was unsustainably lower than the league average. All signs point to Kincaid seeing more targets and touchdowns in 2024.
Overshadowed Greatness
If it weren’t for Sam LaPorta’s record-setting rookie season, Kincaid would have been the talk of the fantasy community all offseason and he would likely be significantly higher in his current average draft position. His 73 receptions last season were the third most ever by a rookie tight end, trailing only Jeremy Shockey (74) and LaPorta (86). He’s the only rookie tight end ever to top an 80% catch rate on more than 40 targets and he more than doubled that threshold with 91, the fifth most ever for a rookie at the position.
I’m not here to litigate where we should be drafting Sam LaPorta. He earned the right to be selected as the TE1 in fantasy drafts. I will, however, argue that Kincaid is in a better offense, with a better quarterback, and a greater opportunity to become his team’s top offensive weapon. It’s hard to see the path for LaPorta overtaking Amon-Ra St. Brown or Jahmyr Gibbs in Detroit, but Kincaid is more likely to be the offensive centerpiece in Buffalo than second-round rookie Keon Coleman, retread Curtis Samuel, or scatback James Cook.
Closing Argument
I think I’ve made my points, so let me be concise in closing. Kincaid showed his potential last season, especially from Week 17 into the NFL playoffs, a time when most of the fantasy football world stops paying attention. Now he finds himself as the top candidate to be the leading target earner for one of the best quarterbacks in one of the best offenses in the NFL.
The Bills drafted Kincaid to be great, which he was as a rookie. Unfortunately, he was overshadowed by Sam LaPorta’s record-setting rookie season. Now opportunity and touchdown regression favor Kincaid. He’s currently going off the board as the fifth tight end in fantasy drafts, a full two rounds later than LaPorta. The gap probably shouldn’t be that large, considering that Kincaid’s ceiling is as high as any tight end in fantasy football.
Given all the arguments I’ve laid out today, Dalton Kincaid can be a league-winning fantasy football tight end in 2024. I rest my case.