Fantasy Court: The Case for Curtis Samuel in 2024 (Fantasy Football)
This article is part of the annual Fantasy Court series. Be sure to check out The Case AGAINST Curtis Samuel by Jack Reinhart for the opposing view.
Opening Statement
Your Honor, I’m standing here before the Fantasy Court to defend a wide receiver who has helped fantasy managers almost every season, and this year will play in an actual good offense for the first time in his career. I’m talking about Curtis Samuel, a player who had flashes of greatness last season as a Washington Commander and led the team in targets in several weeks but finished as the WR44 due to very inconsistent quarterback play.
Some analysts consider Curtis Samuel a sleeper pick this season but I think there are enough reasons to believe he has a genuine shot at earning the top WR role in Buffalo, at least for a year.
A Very Cheap Investment
Curtis Samuel’s current ADP is WR51 (119th overall). He’s never been a high ADP guy, but except for last season, he has finished inside WR3 territory in every season he’s played at least 15 games and he’s only finished lower than a WR4 when he’s played fewer than 10 games. He is an absolute bargain right now considering his potential upside.
You can draft him almost two full rounds later than rookie WR Keon Coleman, whom everyone is crazy about. And I can understand it. We all want to see rookies break out. But rookies usually take time. Not everyone is Justin Jefferson or Amon-Ra St. Brown. It might be a hard pill to swallow, but Curtis Samuel has the talent and experience to be the perfect placeholder while Keon Coleman learns the ropes, and you can get him much cheaper.
Lots of Opportunity
Even if both he and Coleman end up sharing the volume in a more or less equal way, no team has more vacated WR targets than the Buffalo Bills. Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis left 241 targets to share mainly between these two newcomers and some might go to Khalil Shakir. We should also count Deonte Harty and Trent Sherfield’s combined 42 vacated targets, which should go mainly to Curtis Samuel and I’ll tell you why: while his overall 2023 numbers weren’t great, one of the few stats in which he finished among the top 12 was in slot snaps. He is a slot position specialist and I’m sure that’s one of the main reasons OC Joe Brady wanted him in Buffalo. We know the Bills will play in a lot of three-WR sets this season, and that will keep Curtis Samuel on the field constantly.
Money Talks
The Bills gave Curtis Samuel a contract that says a lot. He signed a three-year, $24 million contract with an average annual value of $8 million, a $6.9 million signing bonus, and $13.1 million guaranteed, making him the highest-paid wide receiver on the team. This means he is expected to be much more than a depth piece behind a rookie prospect. Samuel is an important part of the 2024 plan and the next point will prove it further.
Offensive Coordinator and QB
Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady and Curtis Samuel go way back. Brady was the one who wanted to bring him to Buffalo. Brady was the offensive coordinator in Carolina when Curtis Samuel had his most receptions, receiving yards, and even rush attempts! In that season he was the WR17 in yards from scrimmage and finished inside the top 24 in PPR formats.
Maybe he won’t repeat a season like that, but knowing he’ll be playing under the same OC, with an elite QB who has been depleted of his weapons, things start to look much better than that horrendous WR51 ADP.
Josh Allen is by far the best quarterback Curtis Samuel’s ever had. He is going from the QB21 to the QB3 in accuracy rating. We’ve already seen a connection in the first preseason game, in which Samuel caught both of his two targets. Being such a trustworthy slot receiver who can also play on the outside and get some work on the ground, Curtis Samuel might be a very helpful tool for both his QB and OC.
A Solid Set Of Skills
Despite his pedestrian 2023 season, Curtis Samuel was really good at some specific things. For example, catching the ball when he was targeted. Among all WRs with at least 80 targets, he had the eighth-highest catch rate.
We know availability is also a very important ability. During his first couple of seasons as a pro, Curtis Samuel struggled with injuries. But over the past two campaigns, he’s missed only one game.
And last but not least, he is really good at separating and getting open against both man and zone coverage. Last season he was among the top 24 in target separation. It will be exciting to see how these abilities are exploited by Josh Allen’s arm and accuracy.
Closing Argument
I want to close my case by asking the jury of this honorable court to open their minds and put things in perspective. Curtis Samuel is not a flashy pick. He won’t be a league winner. He won’t headline any fantasy football newsletters and he may even go undrafted in many home leagues. But he will very likely outperform his ADP by a wide margin, simply because of the very favorable situation around him. Drafters have a golden opportunity to get a piece of the action in one of the best teams in football at a ridiculous price.