Fantasy Court: The Case For Anthony Richardson in 2023 (Fantasy Football)
This article is part of the annual Fantasy Court series. Be sure to check out The Case Against Anthony Richardson by Joe Beldner for the opposing view.
Be sure to check out where Anthony Richardson is ranked in Andy, Mike, and Jason’s 2023 QB Rankings.
Opening Statement
Rookie quarterbacks have a reputation for struggling to put up consistent fantasy points. The learning curves, growing pains, and next-level NFL game speed can make for a protracted transition from collegiate to professional signal caller. This explains why fantasy managers have so much trepidation in taking a rookie quarterback in fantasy drafts.
I’m here today to tell you that Anthony Richardson is different. He was the third quarterback selected in the 2023 NFL draft but is easily the first rookie quarterback off the board in fantasy drafts. Even with his average draft position (ADP) as QB12, he is still being undervalued by fantasy drafters.
Let me explain, as I make the case for drafting Richardson in fantasy football in 2023.
The Elite of the Elite Athlete
Richardson is the most athletic quarterback to enter the NFL. That isn’t hyperbole. He literally has the highest Relative Athletic Score (RAS) of all time.
Anthony Richardson was drafted with pick 4 of round 1 in the 2023 draft class. He scored a 10.00 #RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 1 out of 916 QB from 1987 to 2023. https://t.co/EV9myLwunR pic.twitter.com/16M6qjHydU
— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) April 28, 2023
Now, Richardson’s athleticism is amplified when you consider his size.
perspective on Anthony Richardson's size:
Anthony Richardson: 6'4”, 244 lbs
George Kittle: 6'4", 247 lbs
Derrick Henry: 6'3”, 247 lbs
Von Miller: 6'3”, 246 lbs
Ben Roethlisberger: 6'5”, 241 lbs
Cam Newton: 6'5”, 248 lbs pic.twitter.com/9MNW4SxyT5
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) March 4, 2023
So he’s bigger and faster than Derrick Henry. That’s insane, but he is playing quarterback, after all. Can he throw a football?
In short, YES. One more tweet (X?) to display just how freaky athletic of a quarterback Richardson is.
The deep ball 🚀
The back flip 😮Anthony Richardson put on a show at @GatorsFB Pro Day! pic.twitter.com/eLgiTMeXyq
— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) March 30, 2023
That ball traveled 70 yards in the air. Then, after throwing a ball further than most humans can even fathom, he casually hits a backflip that somebody his size has no business doing.
Rushing QBs are Still a Fantasy Football Cheat Code
Richardson’s all-world athleticism matters because it represents less what he can do in the passing game and more what he can do on the ground. Before examining why his rushing is vital to scoring fantasy points, let’s zoom out.
The following table includes the rookie season of all 20 quarterbacks since 2011 selected in the top 10 of the NFL draft that started at least 10 games as a rookie, sorted by fantasy points/game.
| Player | Season | Pick | Starts | FP/Game | Season Finish |
| Cam Newton | 2011 | 1 | 16 | 23.1 | QB3 |
| Justin Herbert | 2020 | 6 | 15 | 22.2 | QB9 |
| Robert Griffin III | 2012 | 2 | 15 | 21.2 | QB4 |
| Kyler Murray | 2019 | 1 | 16 | 17.8 | QB12 |
| Marcus Mariota | 2015 | 2 | 12 | 17.5 | QB18 |
| Joe Burrow | 2020 | 1 | 10 | 17.4 | QB18 |
| Josh Allen | 2018 | 7 | 11 | 17.3 | QB19 |
| Andrew Luck | 2012 | 1 | 16 | 17.3 | QB9 |
| Jameis Winston | 2015 | 1 | 16 | 17.2 | QB19 |
| Baker Mayfield | 2018 | 1 | 13 | 17.2 | QB20 |
| Daniel Jones | 2019 | 6 | 12 | 16.5 | QB16 |
| Carson Wentz | 2016 | 2 | 16 | 13.3 | QB28 |
| Sam Darnold | 2018 | 3 | 13 | 13.0 | QB34 |
| Blake Bortles | 2014 | 3 | 13 | 12.0 | QB30 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2021 | 1 | 17 | 11.7 | QB37 |
| Zach Wilson | 2021 | 2 | 13 | 11.7 | QB37 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2012 | 8 | 16 | 11.4 | QB30 |
| Mitch Trubisky | 2017 | 2 | 12 | 11.2 | QB38 |
| Josh Rosen | 2018 | 10 | 13 | 8.1 | QB44 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 2011 | 10 | 14 | 7.8 | QB43 |
I’ll admit, this is a very top-heavy list. Only three of these quarterbacks averaged 20+ fantasy points/game. But wait, let’s filter it a little further. The following table reduces the list to include only the quarterbacks that rushed at least 80 times in their rookie season.
| Player | Season | Pick | Starts | Rush Attempts | FP/Game | Season Finish |
| Cam Newton | 2011 | 1 | 16 | 126 | 23.08 | QB3 |
| Robert Griffin III | 2012 | 2 | 15 | 120 | 21.17 | QB4 |
| Kyler Murray | 2019 | 1 | 16 | 93 | 17.83 | QB12 |
| Josh Allen | 2018 | 7 | 11 | 89 | 17.34 | QB19 |
That looks more promising. Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III, and Kyler Murray all finished as top 12 quarterbacks as rookies. Josh Allen looks like a blemish, but recall that he missed four games in the middle of his rookie season with an elbow injury. Upon his return, he averaged 24.2 fantasy points/game over his last six games, which came during the heart of the fantasy playoffs.
There are some other names that I need to bring up: Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Justin Fields. These quarterbacks were not top 10 picks in the NFL draft, and they all started their careers as backups. However, they each took over the job in their second seasons, had over 100 rush attempts, and finished as a top 10 fantasy quarterback. Jackson finished as the QB1 when he broke fantasy football with his MVP season in 2019. Hurts was the QB9 when he got the starting job in Philly in 2021. Just last season, Fields finished as QB6 in his first season as a starter.
So, what does this mean for Richardson? Given his draft capital and the camp reports, it’s highly probable that we see him as the starter for the Colts in Week 1. Given his athleticism and collegiate profile, he could be north of 80 rush attempts by Week 10. If he gets the starting job and rushes at least 80 times, he will likely pay off the cost of his ADP.
The Perfect Setup
All the historical numbers above make a strong statistical case for Richardson, but how does that fit with his team context and supporting cast?
Let’s start with coaching. The Colts hired Shane Steichen as head coach this offseason, and you’d be hard-pressed to find a better coach to help mold Richardson and design an offense for him. He was the offensive coordinator for the Chargers in 2020 when Justin Herbert exploded as a rookie. In case you’ve already forgotten, Herbert was one of just three quarterbacks in the table above who averaged 20+ fantasy points/game as a rookie.
Then Steichen moved on to Philadelphia, where he helped transform second-year quarterback Jalen Hurts into one of the best fantasy quarterbacks in the league, finishing as QB9. He stuck with Philly in 2022, when Hurts continued to develop. He finished as the QB3 and led the Eagles to the Super Bowl on the back of an MVP-caliber season.
The offensive unit in Indy has been underrated this offseason. For the past few seasons, the Colts have felt like they were just a quarterback away from being a great offense. Unfortunately, the quarterbacks they rolled with were largely over the hill and washed-up veterans Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, and Matt Ryan. Those guys didn’t work out. Enter Richardson.
Indy’s offensive line has been one of the most solid in the league, led by All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson. Jonathan Taylor is one of the top running back talents in the NFL who is just one season removed from finishing as the RB1. Ideally, JT resolves his contract dispute and plays the entire season, but even if he doesn’t, that would only mean more carries and goal-line work for Richardson.
Michael Pittman Jr. is primed for a bounce-back season, especially if, as Steichen did with the Eagles, he designs an RPO-heavy offense. (For more on why, check out this study by JJ Zachariason.) Deep threat Alec Pierce and rookie Josh Downs are also intriguing weapons for Richardson that could make this offense even more explosive.
Closing Argument
As usual, I’ll be concise in closing. I’ve laid out clear evidence in favor of drafting Anthony Richardson. There is historical, statistical data that tells us Richardson’s floor is a top 12 quarterback if he starts the season and rushes 80+ times in a season, both of which are overwhelmingly likely. He has the ideal head coach in Shane Steichen to develop Richardson’s game and design an effective offense around him. Given these facts and his otherworldly athleticism, the sky is the ceiling for Anthony Richardson.
Comments
Nice info, I’d love to see a fantasy court on Garrett Wilson.