Fantasy Court: The Case Against Derrick Henry in 2024 (Fantasy Football)
This article is part of the annual Fantasy Court series. Be sure to check out The Case FOR Derrick Henry by Paul Marnie for the opposing view.
Opening Statement
Your Honor and members of the jury, I’m glad to be back in court making arguments about polemical fantasy football players. Although I must admit that it feels weird to be in front of the jury making a case against such a great NFL superstar. Don’t get me wrong, Your Honor. I want to see Derrick Henry thrive and continue being an unstoppable force of nature in this new phase as a Baltimore Raven. But there are some red flags around him and I think the fantasy football community as a whole is guilty of overlooking them.
His Unique Role in Tennessee
I’m sure the defendant will talk about how great Derrick Henry was last season despite being 29 years old. So let’s get the compliments for this great future hall-of-famer out of the way. He had more rushing attempts than any other player, he had the second-most rushing yards, and he finished as the RB5. A brilliant 2023 season.
I want to make something very clear: This case is not against Derrick Henry’s talent. He is an outlier and he might be remembered forever as the ultimate outlier. My argument is against his current situation and how different it is from what he had in Tennessee. Since Mike Vrabel became the head coach in 2018, the Titans ran through the legs of Derrick Henry. He was the centerpiece of the offense and the red zone go-to guy. This kind of role is becoming less common in the NFL because you can’t depend so heavily on one player. Whenever he got injured, the offense struggled considerably.
The fantasy world seems sure that he will have a very similar role in Baltimore. And I get it. We all want to see the best players be great and play for better teams. But there’s something fantasy managers and analysts are not taking into account…
The Ravens Want a Super Bowl Ring
When Henry signed with the Ravens, Jim Harbaugh said he was fired up about not having to play against him anymore. He also said he’ll help the team in different ways. Of course, they should exploit his talents. But smart coaches from Super Bowl contending teams know that the road ahead is longer than 17 weeks. They see the big picture and plan according to that. Jim Harbaugh knows he has to take proper care of his star players (especially the older ones) to make sure they make it to the playoffs because that’s when the heavy usage starts.
Take Travis Kelce in 2023 for example. There were games in the middle of the season in which his snap count was lower than usual, but once the postseason started, he was healthy enough to unleash the beast and rarely left the field. I know it’s a different position but I’m talking about the coaching mentality.
That’s why I don’t think the Ravens will risk Derrick Henry too much during the regular season. Even though he is the team’s clear RB1, Harbaugh likes to rotate and I’m sure we’ll often see Justice Hill, Keaton Mitchell, and even rookie RB Rasheen Ali get in the mix now and then.
And of course, don’t forget about Lamar Jackson and his legs. That’s an asset that will be used and those are rushing yards, attempts, and even touchdowns that Derrick Henry won’t get. What I’m trying to say, Your Honor, is that the offense won’t revolve around him as it did in Tennessee.
Ravens RBs Mysterious Injury History
This is not a very scientific argument but it needs to be mentioned. The Ravens’ RBs get injured so often that some people even call it a curse. Every year they end up having to add some extra depth during the season to have enough starters. Is it because of their training field? Is it John Harbaugh’s playing style? Is it pure bad luck? To shed some scientific light on this matter, I decided to contact a couple of medical experts from the fantasy football industry around the world to ask what they think of this. Here’s what the experts had to say, Your Honor:
Pablo Mayer – Fantástico Tocho Podcast (Mexico)
For me, the problem is in the Ravens’ next-man-up mentality. Players in Baltimore’s backfield have to always be ready to play, even if they’re dealing with an injury. This frequently makes them accelerate the rehab process. When a Ravens RB gets injured it’s usually a reaggravation from a previous injury, because they make the player train or play before they’ve healed enough.
David Rey – Las 1001 Fantasy (Spain)
It’s a mix of two factors. On one hand, their training and playing field is very slippery and that’s hard on the ligaments when players hit the brakes. That’s why there are so many ACL and Achilles injuries. On the other hand, there’s Harbaugh’s training method. He comes from a special teams background that values explosive starts and sudden stops with the player falling forward. That’s why he puts a lot of focus on strengthening the posterior chain muscles, but he doesn’t pay too much attention to the ones that take care of changing direction. That’s why players tend to suffer tears and fractures. This is something to monitor in Derrick Henry’s case, considering his previous foot injury.
These might be controversial statements, but at least there seem to be some not-so-mysterious explanations for this “curse.” Derrick Henry isn’t an average “next-man-up” kind of player, so it would be wise to not overuse him and prevent him from getting injured if they want to make sure he is healthy for the playoffs. This would mean less volume and of course, fewer fantasy points.
Veteran RBs Changing Teams Usually Fail
This statement will be proved right or wrong this year with so many veteran RBs changing teams. But usually, when an RB gets traded or finishes his contract and signs with another team, his fantasy production goes down. It makes sense. Workhorses can’t be workhorses forever. Let’s look at some RBs that have changed teams in the past, generating a lot of hype among fantasy football managers during draft season just to become the lesser part of a committee.
| Player | Previous Team | FPPG | New Team | FPPG |
| Dalvin Cook | Vikings – 2022 | 12.8 | Jets – 2023 | 2.2 |
| Miles Sanders | Eagles – 2022 | 12.2 | Panthers -2023 | 4.6 |
| Chase Edmonds | Cardinals – 2021 | 10.2 | Dolphins – 2022 | 5.1 |
| Todd Gurley | Rams – 2019 | 13.6 | Falcons – 2020 | 10.0 |
| Le’Veon Bell | Steelers- 2017 | 19.9 | Jets – 2019 | 12.1 |
All these players (even Gurley and Bell, who were still fantasy-relevant) failed to meet expectations and finished considerably lower than their hyped-up ADP. Of course, there’s also the case of Christian McCaffrey arriving in San Francisco where he unleashed his full potential. Both he and Henry are outliers, but CMC was 26 when he changed teams mid-season and arrived at an ideal spot. King Henry is four years older than that and as I stated before, the Ravens’ offensive scheme doesn’t need a workhorse right now.
Even Outliers Have an Expiration Date
We’ve been talking for years about the fear of being left holding the bag when Derrick Henry’s wheels finally fall off. The famous age cliff for running backs is around 27-28. Derrick Henry is 30 years old and he will turn 31 before the season ends. He is still one of the strongest, most athletic players in the league, and I’m not saying this is the year his body will finally begin to give in, but every year it’s more likely to happen. These things occur when we least expect them.
Closing Argument
Your Honor, I’m not trying to dissuade people from liking Derrick Henry as a player. I just want everyone to know about the risk of drafting him as an RB1 when there are so many variables (age, new offensive scheme, Super Bowl ambitions, and injury risk) in play. I know his ceiling is high, but his floor might be way lower than fantasy managers are aware of. So please draft him with caution.