Fantasy Court: The Case for Derrick Henry in 2024 (Fantasy Football)

This article is part of the annual Fantasy Court series. Be sure to check out The Case AGAINST Derrick Henry by Javier Manzanera for the opposing view.

Opening Statement

Your Honor, I stand before you in The Fantasy Footballers’ fantasy court today to defend a man who for years has worked tirelessly in the Tennessee Titans‘ backfield. A man who has provided fantasy managers with six straight seasons of double-digit touchdowns, RB1 finish after RB1 finish, and more carries than anyone else in the National Football League since 2019. A man, who some naysayers are declaring has “lost a step,” who has “hit the age cliff,” and is being put out to pasture, left to decay on the fantasy scrapheap. The man I am referring to can scarcely be labeled as just merely a man, for to fantasy managers, he is so much more than that – he is a legend, an icon, a phenomenon…a yeti. I am of course here today representing the new lead running back for the Baltimore Ravens, and bonafide RB1 for your fantasy teams in 2024…Mr. Derrick Henry.

Appearing before you to make a case for Mr. Henry as a top 12 fantasy option this year feels akin to the exoneration of one Kris Kringle in the Christmas-based documentary Miracle on 34th Street – standing up for an older gentleman, beloved by all, who appears every winter to provide all the good boys and girls with the ultimate present…the gift of fantasy points. Let me begin my case for my very own fantasy Santa Claus with a visit from the ghosts of seasons past.

Hail to the King

Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, what are the endearing qualities you look for in a stud fantasy running back? Rushing attempts? Rushing yards? Touchdowns? Yards after contact? Possibly even broken tackles? How about a rusher that can do it all? 

As he has done in four of the last five seasons, Derrick Henry once again led the league in rushing opportunities, with 280 attempts across 17 games. Despite operating behind an offensive line that ranked in the bottom 10 according to PlayerProfiler, King Henry still managed to scramble for the second-most yards on the season (1,167), behind only fellow immortal Christian McCaffrey (1,459). The Yeti lived up to his abominably intimidating nickname, recording the fifth-most broken tackles (23), and racking up the second-highest numbers of yards after contact (570) in the process…just three shy of CMC’s total. 

I mentioned earlier that this was Henry’s sixth season in a row with double-digit touchdowns. In that same spell, only Ezekiel Elliott comes remotely close to the Big Dog, eclipsing the 10 TD mark on three separate occasions. 2023 was Henry’s fourth season out of his last six finishing the year as a top-12 back, despite being on the field for only 53% of Tennessee’s offensive snaps. Tyjae Spears may have taken a larger chunk of the workload than Henry managers would have liked – but his production on a “lesser” workload, and heavier involvement in the passing game, still saw him finish 10th in FPPG at the position (12.9), and eighth overall come the end of year. 

Age Is but a Number

Counsel concedes that the defendant has indeed turned 30 years old, and while we recognize the abundance of evidence to suggest a fall-off in fantasy production at this juncture in a player’s career, our counterargument, which is presented with all due respect to other running backs, is simple – they were not Derrick Henry.

Crossing the threshold into their 30s is not quite the death sentence doubters would have you believe. Since 2010, no fewer than nine running backs on the “wrong” side of thirty have finished the season with at least 10 touchdowns – the most recent coming only last year, when the then 31-year-old Raheem Mostert found the end zone *checks notes* 21 times! Alongside his league-leading touchdown pace, Mostert became only the fourth rusher to accrue over 1,000 rushing yards in their 30s since 2010 – behind Adrian Peterson in 2018 and Frank Gore (he is infinite, he is all) in 2014 and 2016. Mostert’s significantly lighter career workload entering last season (only 465 career carries in eight years as a pro) may make him somewhat of an outlier, but how does Henry compare to the two future first-ballot hall of famers as they entered their trend-busting seasons?

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Heading into each of their respective post-30/1,000+ yard rushing seasons, neither Peterson nor Gore (in either year) posted metrics as impressive as the Yeti. Henry’s 4.2 Y/A was his lowest since his sophomore year back in 2017, but still eclipses the highest mark of 4.1 set by Gore aged just over 30 back in 2015. Both men went on to improve their Y/A in each of the following years – Gore to 4.3 Y/A in 2014, and 3.9 Y/A in 2016, with AP skyrocketing almost a full yard to 4.2 Y/A at age 33! Like Peterson and Gore, Derrick Henry is a generational talent at the position – and as we can see from the NFL Next Gen Stats analysis of this 69-yard run (nice) from Week 18 last year…there’s absolutely no indication to suggest he is slowing down anytime soon.

Derrick Henry reached a top speed of 21.68 mph on his 69-yard run, tied for the 7th-fastest speed by a ball carrier this season, and Henry's fastest play since Week 6, 2021 (career-high 21.80 mph).

🔹 Expected Rush Yards: 10
🔹 Rush Yards Over Expected: +59#JAXvsTEN | #Titans pic.twitter.com/SRUnlZlGis

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 7, 2024

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Quote the Ravens: “Feed Him More” 

After eight seasons in Tennessee, Henry has found a new home in Maryland, as he looks to end his long wait for a Super Bowl ring in the company of Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews on the Baltimore Ravens. I noted how Henry was still efficient last season despite his age…but what arguably played a more detrimental role in his slightly declining metrics last season was the quality of his supporting cast in Nashville. In moving from the Titans to the Ravens, Derrick Henry now finds himself on the fifth-best offense in the NFL as opposed to the fifth-worst he did last year. In 2023, Baltimore led the NFL in team rushing attempts (541), and rushing yards (2,661) while scoring a whopping 26 touchdowns on the ground…only one less than Detroit, Miami, and San Francisco who tied for first with 27.

The Ravens are the highest of all high-T offenses, topping 500 rushing attempts every season since 2018 – the only team to break the 500 carries barrier every year in that six-year stretch,

I would be remiss not to address the elephant in the room when discussing Baltimore’s running prowess over the last half a decade or so – the 2023 NFL MVP…Lamar Demeatrice Jackson. Since being drafted in 2018, Jackson has accounted for 27% of the Ravens’ total rushing attempts, 32% of their rushing yards, and 24% of rushing touchdowns. Jackson is an anomaly at the position, averaging a yearly stat line of 145/887/5 on the ground alone. Now, ladies and gentlemen of the jury, at first glance, this may seem as if my client is entering an unfavorable situation with such stiff competition for carries…but can I refer your attention back to the table above?

The Ravens average 547 carries per season…if my calculations are correct, that leaves over 400 opportunities for every ball carrier not named Lamar Jackson. Exhibit A below shows just how that shook down last season:

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Lead ball carrier Gus Edwards and one-game wonder J.K. Dobbins have followed former Ravens OC Greg Roman to Los Angeles to wear the powder blue of the Chargers, and Melvin Gordon…well Melvin Gordon will probably have a few more free Sundays than he’s been used to these last few years. The bottom line is that all three are gone and have left in excess of 200 carries in their absence. Am I suggesting that Derrick Henry steps in and takes all of the work left by this trio? Umm, yes, and then some. Justice Hill’s 84 attempts were a career-high, and while he and dynamic sophomore Keaton Mitchell will both have notable roles in the offense – this is Derrick Henry’s backfield now. 

Head Coach Jim Harbaugh has already confirmed Henry’s usage and workload will mirror what we saw in Tennessee over the last few seasons, and even if his 73% of rushing attempts from last year were to drop to say 70%…that would still give the King around 280 opportunities to bully opposition defenses behind this Baltimore O-line that allowed every one of the Ravens’ primary ball carriers to run over 4.0 Y/A last year.

💻 John Harbaugh

Revisited the disappointing AFC Championship Game loss and signing @KingHenry_2 in free agency with the @Ravens head coach:#NFL #RavensFlock pic.twitter.com/uDOzqdTP3o

— Rich Eisen Show (@RichEisenShow) May 2, 2024

Opportunity is Derrick Henry’s key to success – he is a running back who likes to take a little time to warm up and grind down defenses with his relentless power and tough running style. In the words of his new head coach – “You can’t let him get started, if he gets started, it’s gonna be hard to stop him” – along with the Ravens’ 10.5 projected win total for 2024 being the third-highest in the league, King Henry is set to have plenty of chances to get started week in, week out.

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Closing Statement

Ladies and gentlemen of the fantasy court, I have laid before you the steadfast case for my client to once again finish the season as an RB1 for your fantasy team, and I contest that his current ADP near the end of the second round is tantamount to blasphemy. Going off the board at his lowest position since 2019, a season that followed an RB14 finish, is unfounded and an egregious error on behalf of the wider fantasy community. As the lead rusher for this Super Bowl-contending Baltimore Ravens team, Derrick Henry will easily surpass the 1,000-yard rushing mark once again, and in the process make it seven seasons in a row with double-digit touchdowns on the ground. As a final act, the defense would like to invite key witness Mike The Fantasy Hitman Wright to the stand to present his closing disposition surrounding the outlook for Mr. Henry in 2024, in legalese I believe that is called a Mike Drop…the defense rests.

“Once you’re an outlier, you’re an outlier.”
-Mike on Derrick Henry pic.twitter.com/3UtTIvEox8

— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) August 12, 2024