Does the “Hot Hand” Exist for QBs in Fantasy Football?
Introduction
If you haven’t had the chance to read the first two articles of this series, check out my analysis on WRs and RBs!
In the world of fantasy football, the concept of the hot hand has crossed both managers’ and analysts’ minds. Will a quarterback who has performed well in recent games continue to deliver consistent performances, or is this just a statistical anomaly? This article delves into the data of NFL QBs over the past six seasons to investigate whether the hot hand phenomenon exists for them in fantasy football. With this analysis, we aim to uncover patterns that could influence draft strategies and weekly lineup decisions.
To complete this analysis, I separated backs by their designation, or whether they were a QB1 or QB2.
Trends
Before we examine the hot hand, let’s take a look at some trends for QB scoring. By plotting out the average points scored in fantasy by QBs per week, we see something quite odd — there is a clear down-trend in QB performance as the season progresses. Even for starting QBs, their performance takes a 1.5-point hit between the start and end of the year. While this isn’t the end of the world, it’s something to keep in mind as your fantasy season progresses.
Another trend we can look at is bust probability, or the chance that a QB scores less than 10 points in a given week. Here, we see a large increase in the probability of bust as the season moves forward. For QB1s, the chances of laying an egg increase almost 10% from start to end. While some of this can be accounted for by players being rested late in the season for playoffs, there is still a large jump around Week 10 in bust probability.
The Hot Hand
Now let’s jump into the hot hand analysis. If a QB puts up big numbers a few weeks in a row, does this mean they are more likely to do it again in the next week? Let’s find out.
Starting slow, we can look at the probability of a QB scoring 15+ points given they have done so in the previous five weeks. The results are very telling — both QB1s and QB2s show over a 70% chance (historically) of continuing their hot streak.
When we increase the point total to 20 or more points, the results hold. With a slight drop in probability, quarterbacks are still highly likely to continue their hot hand.
Even when we expand the point total to 25 or more points, starting QBs still have a great chance (67%) to continue their exceptional play.
Undoubtedly, quarterbacks are able to maintain their hot hand — but when does this hot hand begin? When can we declare a QB to be “hot?” The chart below plots out the percent chance that a QB will score 20+ points given they scored 20+ points in the previous n weeks preceding (QB1s only). We see that the odds start off slow, but after three weeks, the chances of a QB staying hot dramatically increase (60% to 68%). Following this, the odds start to level off. It looks like three weeks of strong performances is the magic number for the hot hand.
With all this said, can QBs get cold? The answer is yes. Given that a QB1 scores 10 or fewer points in their previous three weeks, they have a 76% chance to bust again!
Expanding this to five weeks straight, the probability of a bust only increases. Just as they can get hot, quarterbacks can get even colder!
Conclusion
Quarterbacks are very consistent in their fantasy play. While week to week there is some randomness, it is evident that QBs who are hot stay hot, while those who are cold struggle to get out of their slump. As the hot hand is STRONG with QBs, it is important to trust their scoring trends during the season.
That’s all for this article, as always, feel free to reach out on Twitter with any questions!